| name | decision-sensitivity |
| description | Identify which uncertainties would actually change the research direction decision. Compute EVPI to prioritize uncertainty reduction. |
| dependencies | {"sops":["critical-path-identification","sensitivity-synthesis"]} |
Decision Sensitivity
Focus on uncertainties that change decisions, not just numbers.
Budget
| Base SOP | Target | ±10% Range |
|---|
| web-search | 25 | 22–28 |
| web-research | 10 | 9–11 |
| paper-overview | 25 | 22–28 |
| paper-search | 15 | 13–17 |
| paper-research | 10 | 9–11 |
State Ledger
<HARD-GATE>
| SOP | Done | Target | % |
|-----|------|--------|---|
| web-search | ? | 25 | ? |
| web-research | ? | 10 | ? |
| paper-overview | ? | 25 | ? |
| paper-search | ? | 15 | ? |
| paper-research | ? | 10 | ? |
Budget Gate: OPEN/CLOSED (>=80% required to exit)
</HARD-GATE>
Available SOPs
Import: web-search, web-research, paper-overview, paper-search, paper-research
Subagent: critical-path-identification, sensitivity-synthesis
Execution Guidance
Identify which uncertainties would actually change the research direction decision. Compute Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) for each uncertain parameter. Focus resources on reducing uncertainty with highest EVPI.
Available SOPs
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|
| critical-path-identification | Identify which input uncertainties contribute most to output uncertainty and compute EVPI for research prioritization. |
| sensitivity-synthesis | Synthesize all sensitivity analysis results into a coherent report with prioritized recommendations. |
