// Use when evaluating whether a research idea clears the AER top-5 bar, when routing between AER, AER:Insights, and the AEJ family, or when sharpening a fuzzy contribution sentence into one publishable claim. Apply before any writing begins.
| name | aer-topic-selection |
| description | Use when evaluating whether a research idea clears the AER top-5 bar, when routing between AER, AER:Insights, and the AEJ family, or when sharpening a fuzzy contribution sentence into one publishable claim. Apply before any writing begins. |
The single most expensive mistake in top-5 economics is writing a polished manuscript around a contribution that was always going to be desk-rejected. This skill is the pre-mortem: stress-test the idea, the audience, and the venue before the introduction is drafted.
The AER acceptance rate is 6–8% of submitted papers and the desk rejection rate at the AER family runs 45–62% depending on the journal. Roughly half of the survival probability is determined before the first paragraph is written.
A paper clears the top-5 bar if and only if all four are true:
If any single test fails, the realistic target is an AEJ or a top field journal, not AER.
| Signal | Target |
|---|---|
| Cross-subfield interest + ≥ 40 pages of substance | AER |
| One sharp result, fits the AER: Insights word/exhibit formula, can be told without a long lit review | AER: Insights |
| Strong but subfield-bounded contribution; methodologically sound | AEJ: Applied / Policy / Macro / Micro |
| Conventional method, modest extension, useful for one literature | Top field journal |
| Field experiment with policy hook | AER, AEJ:Applied, or QJE — register in AEA RCT Registry before submission |
For AER: Insights specifically, the editor (Amy Finkelstein) has stated that a great short paper "makes one point and makes it clearly, concisely, and effectively." If you have a second point, write a second paper.
Force the contribution into one sentence with this template:
We show that X causes Y, identified by Z, using data D, with magnitude M,
which changes the way economists think about Q.
If any blank cannot be filled in:
aer-identification before doing anything elseRun these five questions:
A "yes" to (4) or (5) is fatal at AER.
The editor scans for these in the first ten minutes:
If any of these are present, fix them before submission.
Peer feedback measurably improves journal placement: one SD more comments → 47% higher journal quality. Before sending to AER, target:
Skip none of these for an AER target. AER: Insights tolerates a shorter cycle because the contribution is sharper and the venue is younger.
When this skill finishes, emit:
CONTRIBUTION SENTENCE: <one line>
TARGET VENUE: <AER | AER:Insights | AEJ:Applied | AEJ:Policy | AEJ:Macro | AEJ:Micro>
TOP-5 BAR TESTS PASSED: <count>/4
KILL SWITCHES TRIGGERED: <list, or "none">
NEXT SKILL: <aer-identification | aer-introduction>
Use when selecting, implementing, or stress-testing the causal identification strategy for an empirical economics manuscript — difference-in-differences (including staggered designs), instrumental variables (including weak-IV-robust inference), regression discontinuity, synthetic control, or shift-share / Bartik. Apply before writing the introduction or results.
Use when drafting or rewriting the introduction of an economics manuscript targeted at AER, AER:Insights, or an AEJ, or when compressing an abstract to the mandatory 100-word limit. Implements the Keith Head / Bellemare five-paragraph formula and AER-specific formatting conventions.
Use when responding to a Revise & Resubmit decision from AER, AER:Insights, or an AEJ, and a point-by-point response letter plus aligned manuscript revisions are needed. Handles triage, the concede / clarify / push-back decision, and the response-letter format that editors actually read.
Use when assembling the AEA Data and Code Availability deposit for an AER, AER:Insights, or AEJ acceptance, writing the README, or auditing a replication package before the AEA Data Editor review. Implements the current AEA policy, including the February 2026 Data and Code Availability Policy.
Use when constructing or revising regression tables, descriptive statistics tables, or figures for an AER, AER:Insights, or AEJ manuscript. Implements AER booktabs house style, the standard regression-table layout, and the figure-notes convention.
Use when the main empirical results exist but the manuscript lacks the robustness, heterogeneity, mechanism, and placebo checks that AER referees will demand. Apply after aer-identification and before aer-introduction so that the value-added paragraph can reference these tests.