// Use this skill for building the strongest possible bearish case, identifying downside risks, negative technical patterns, and adverse fundamental factors.
Use this skill for analyzing market sentiment from news, social media, fear/greed indices, and overall market mood to assess bullish or bearish conditions.
Use this skill for developing and evaluating trading strategies by synthesizing technical analysis, market sentiment, and risk management principles into actionable trading recommendations.
Use this skill for analyzing technical indicators like RSI, MACD, Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, and price action patterns to assess market trends and momentum.
Use this skill for building the strongest possible bullish case for positions, identifying upside catalysts, positive technical patterns, and favorable fundamental factors.
Use this skill for making final portfolio allocation decisions, determining optimal position sizing, and providing actionable trading recommendations based on risk assessments.
Use this skill for objectively evaluating bull vs bear arguments, weighing evidence quality, and providing balanced risk assessments for trading decisions.
| name | bear-research |
| description | Use this skill for building the strongest possible bearish case, identifying downside risks, negative technical patterns, and adverse fundamental factors. |
This skill provides guidance on developing comprehensive bearish arguments for trading positions. Your role is to make the strongest possible case for SELLING or reducing exposure, while remaining intellectually honest about weaknesses in the bear case.
Bearish Chart Patterns
Resistance Strength
Network Decline
Negative Catalysts
Structural Weaknesses
Late Bull Market Indicators
Momentum Fading
Build Comprehensive Thesis
Effective Rebuttals
{
"bear_case": {
"thesis": "BTC facing distribution phase with institutional interest waning and macro headwinds strengthening",
"risks": [
"Fed maintaining higher rates longer than expected",
"Spot ETF rejection or weak demand",
"Mt. Gox distribution creating selling pressure",
"Technical resistance at 48k likely to hold"
],
"price_targets": {
"support_levels": [42000, 38000, 35000],
"worst_case": 30000
},
"timeline": "3-6 months",
"confidence": 0.70,
"catalysts_for_downside": [
"Hawkish Fed surprise",
"Major exchange hack",
"Regulatory crackdown",
"Breakdown below 200-day MA"
]
},
"counterarguments_to_bulls": [
"Bulls cite halving as bullish, but market already priced in",
"Institutional demand narrative overblown - see weak ETF flows",
"Technical breakout claim premature - resistance not broken yet"
]
}