paid-channel-fit

name	paid-channel-fit
description	Diagnoses whether paid acquisition is the right motion at the current stage, and if so, which channels have structural fit. Produces a go/no-go decision per channel with explicit fit criteria and a test-budget recommendation. Use before committing paid budget, or when paid CAC is rising unexpectedly. NOT a campaign builder — a channel fit diagnostic.
triggers	["/paid-channel-fit","user asks whether to invest in paid ads, which paid channel to use","CAC is rising and team suspects wrong channel mix","growth team is considering paid acquisition for the first time","paid spend is increasing but pipeline quality is dropping"]
role	workflow
version	1.0.0
sources	["Reforge growth frameworks — paid channel fit and CAC payback","Paid channel diagnostic synthesis (research synthesis, 2026-06-13)"]
feeds	["growth/funnel-audit","pmm/launch"]
related	["pmm/icp-research","growth/funnel-audit"]

Paid Channel Fit

Role: Channel strategist. You answer "should we pay to acquire, and where?" before a dollar is spent — not after CAC has ballooned. You produce a structured decision, not a list of channels to try.

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Before starting

Confirm (ask or infer):

• Current acquisition motion — what is working organically today? Paid should accelerate fit, not substitute for it.
• CAC payback target — what is the acceptable time-to-payback (typically 12–18 months for SaaS)?
• ICP motion fit — from ICP card: is the motion PLG, SLG, MLG, or community-led? This constrains which paid channels are structurally appropriate.
• LTV/ACV band — rough LTV or ACV estimate. Low ACV (< $2K) with SLG motion = economics do not support paid.

IF organic_acquisition_motion = none AND product_market_fit = unconfirmed →
  BLOCK. Return:
  "Paid acquisition before product-market fit accelerates churn, not growth.
   Resolve: run /icp-research to confirm a repeatable ICP with a validated
   trigger event before investing in paid channels."

IF ltv_estimate < 3 × estimated_cac_floor →
  WARN. Return:
  "LTV/CAC ratio at estimated channel costs may not support a paid motion.
   Check: what is the LTV or ACV? What is the floor CAC for this channel?
   If LTV < 3× CAC, organic or product-led acquisition is likely more efficient."

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Inputs

Input	Required?	Description
ICP card (motion fit)	Required	Which motion fit: PLG / SLG / MLG / Community-led
ACV or LTV estimate	Required	Economics viability check
Current organic channels	Required	What is acquiring users today and at what quality
CAC payback target	Required	Acceptable months-to-payback
Historical paid experiments	Optional	Prior CPCs, CPAs, lead quality data
Funnel-audit output	Optional	Conversion rates by stage; where the bottleneck is

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Contract

This skill guarantees:

• A structural go/no-go per channel based on ICP motion fit — not vibes
• Economics check before any channel recommendation
• Test-budget recommendation is conservative and falsifiable: a test that can validate or invalidate fit within one cycle