narrative-tracker

<!-- autoresearch: variation B — sharper output (quantitative mindshare + velocity + explicit positioning calls, with multi-angle inputs from A, dedup/empty-state handling from C, and transition detection from D) --> Read `memory/MEMORY.md` for context on prior narrative observations. Read the last 3 days of `memory/logs/` — specifically any prior `### narrative-tracker` entries — to (a) avoid re-reporting the same narratives without new info, and (b) detect phase transitions vs the last run. ## Goal Produce a *decision-grade* narrative map: every narrative gets a mindshare score, a velocity arrow, a sentiment tag, named drivers, and an explicit position call. Classification without a position call is noise. ## Steps ### 1. Ingest signals **a. X/Twitter narratives — X.AI API (primary).** The primary signal is a direct `curl` to the X.AI Responses API with Grok's `x_search` tool — see **## Fetching** below for the full contract. `XAI_API_KEY` is injected into this skill's environment via `requires:`; it is present and valid, so this path is required whenever the key check prints `KEY_PRESENT`. Set the Bash tool `timeout` to ≥180000 when running the curl (x_search takes 30-120s) and capture the HTTP status: ```bash FROM_DATE=$(date -u -d "3 days ago" +%Y-%m-%d 2>/dev/null || date -u -v-3d +%Y-%m-%d) TO_DATE=$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d) # Presence check uses the ${VAR:+x} modified expansion, NOT a bare $XAI_API_KEY — the bare # form trips the Bash secret-expansion analyzer; the :+ form does not (it never puts the value on the line). [ -n "${XAI_API_KEY:+x}" ] && echo KEY_PRESENT || echo KEY_UNSET # Build the JSON payload to a file with jq (do NOT hand-assemble it), then POST the file. # TWO SEPARATE commands on purpose: the jq (which interpolates $PROMPT/$FROM_DATE/$TO_DATE) # is kept OUT of the ./secretcurl command — never pipe jq into secretcurl, and never put a # $VAR in the secretcurl line, or the Bash permission analyzer blocks the network call. # The `>` redirect to /tmp is fine in read-only mode (it is not a repo path; nothing reverts it). PROMPT="Search X for the dominant crypto and tech narratives from ${FROM_DATE} to ${TO_DATE}. Return 12-15 distinct narrative threads. For each: 1) short label, 2) 3-5 representative @handles driving it, 3) 2-3 tweet permalinks, 4) rough mention-volume descriptor (niche / growing / saturating / cooling), 5) the strongest one-line bear case against it." jq -n --arg p "$PROMPT" --arg fd "$FROM_DATE" --arg td "$TO_DATE" \ '{model:"grok-4.6", input:[{role:"user",content:$p}], tools:[{type:"x_search",from_date:$fd,to_date:$td}]}' \ > /tmp/xai-nt-payload.json HTTP=$(./secretcurl -s -o /tmp/xai-nt.json -w '%{http_code}' --max-time 150 -X POST "https://api.x.ai/v1/responses" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer {XAI_API_KEY}" \ -d @/tmp/xai-nt-payload.json) echo "xai http=$HTTP bytes=$(wc -c </tmp/xai-nt.json)" ``` Run that block **verbatim** (do not hand-reassemble the JSON — the `jq -n` builder exists precisely so quoting/expansion can't break; keep the jq and the `./secretcurl` as two separate commands). The `echo "xai http=$HTTP ..."` line **must appear in your output** — it is your proof the call ran. On `HTTP=200` with a non-empty body, parse `/tmp/xai-nt.json` with `jq -r '.output[] | select(.type == "message") | .content[] | select(.type == "output_text") | .text'` and use that as the primary narrative signal (`SOURCE=api`). **b. WebSearch / WebFetch fallback (last-resort only).** You may reach for this **only after** you have shown an `xai http=<code>` line proving Path A actually ran and returned a non-2xx code (or an empty body, or timed out). If you have no `xai http=` line, you did not run the call — go back and run it. Reach for the fallback **only** when Path A genuinely fails — `KEY_UNSET`, a non-2xx HTTP code, an empty parse, or a timeout. It is lower quality (WebSearch favours old high-engagement posts) and is **never co-equal** with Path A. Log the fetch failure to `memory/logs/${today}.md` recording the **true reason** — `key-unset` | `http-<code>` | `empty` | `timeout` — never "XAI_API_KEY unavailable" when the key was set (a slow curl is a `timeout`, not a missing key). Then compile narratives via WebSearch (`crypto narrative ${TO_DATE}`, `AI agent crypto trend this week`) and WebFetch on individual tweet URLs; discard anything older than the 3-day window. **c. Quantitative reference points (supplement).** Independently of the fetch path, cross-check mindshare against external quantitative benchmarks with one WebSearch: `DefiLlama narrative tracker` OR `Kaito mindshare leaderboard`. Pull 1-2 concrete numbers (project name, metric, link) to calibrate the mindshare scores in step 2. This is a calibration cross-check, **not** a narrative source. Do not paraphrase — extract facts. **d. Memory diff.** Extract narrative labels mentioned in the last 3 days of `### narrative-tracker` log entries. You'll compare against them in step 4. ### 2. Score each narrative For each distinct narrative (merge near-duplicates aggressively — "AI agents" and "agentic crypto" are the same), assign: | Field | Scale | How to decide | |---|---|---| | **Mindshare** | 1-5 | 1 = fringe, 3 = known in the sector, 5 = dominating timelines. Base on count of distinct drivers + whether you had to dig or it surfaced unprompted. | | **Velocity** | ↑↑ / ↑ / → / ↓ / ↓↓ | Compared to the 3-day window or prior log entries. ↑↑ = tripled in attention, ↓↓ = was loud 3 days ago, now absent. | | **Phase** | Emerging / Rising / Peak / Fading | Use the velocity + mindshare combo. Emerging = low mindshare, high velocity. Peak = high mindshare, flat/down velocity. Fading = high mindshare last week, now ↓. | | **Sentiment** | Bull / Mixed / Bear / Cope | Cope = bag-holder energy, bear narratives dressed as bull takes. | | **Drivers** | 2-3 named | Accounts, projects, or funds amplifying it. Include @handles. | | **Bear case** | 1 line | The sharpest argument against. If the consensus is obviously right, say so and mark "no contrarian edge". | | **Position** | FRONT-RUN / RIDE / FADE / WATCH / IGNORE | FRONT-RUN = emerging + contrarian edge. RIDE = rising, not yet peaked. FADE = peak with weak fundamentals or reflexivity flip. WATCH = unclear. IGNORE = mindshare 1-2 with no catalyst. | Drop any narrative that ends up IGNORE unless it's structurally important — noise reduction is the goal. ### 3. Detect transitions Compare today's narratives to the last 3 days of logs: - **NEW** — narrative wasn't in prior logs at all - **PROMOTED** — phase moved up (e.g. Emerging → Rising) - **DEMOTED** — phase moved down - **DEAD** — was in prior logs, now absent from all signals Transitions are the highest-value output — the point of a daily tracker is to catch inflection points, not re-report the zeitgeist. ### 4. Flag reflexivity For each narrative, flag if the story itself is moving outcomes: - Token prices moving on narrative alone (no fundamentals shift) - Projects rebranding/pivoting to ride the narrative - VCs publicly endorsing to manufacture legitimacy - Prediction markets or on-chain flows reflecting narrative belief Only flag explicit cases with a concrete example. "Reflexivity" without evidence is hand-waving. ### 5. Format the notification Keep under 4000 chars. Lead with transitions and reflexivity — those are the decisions. Classification goes below. ``` *Narrative Tracker — ${today}* TRANSITIONS • NEW: <label> — <why it matters> — <link> • PROMOTED: <label> Rising → Peak — <what flipped> • DEMOTED: <label> Peak → Fading — <what cooled> • DEAD: <label> — gone REFLEXIVITY ALERT • <narrative> — <concrete evidence the story is moving outcomes> POSITIONS • FRONT-RUN: <label> (mindshare 2 ↑↑, Bull) — <driver> — <bear case> — <link> • RIDE: <label> (3 ↑, Bull) — <driver> — <bear case> • FADE: <label> (5 → Cope) — <driver> — <reflexivity note> MAP Emerging: <labels> Rising: <labels> Peak: <labels> Fading: <labels> ``` If absolutely nothing new or notable (no transitions, no reflexivity, no FRONT-RUN/FADE calls): send a one-line update instead of the full template — `*Narrative Tracker — ${today}*: no phase transitions, map unchanged from <last_date>.` ### 6. Send via `./notify` ### 7. Log to `memory/logs/${today}.md` Append a `### narrative-tracker` section with the full structured output (not just the notification — include all narratives considered, even IGNOREd ones, so future diffs work). If a full run produced nothing actionable, log `NARRATIVE_TRACKER_OK` with the narrative labels seen (so tomorrow's diff still has a baseline). ## Guidelines - Quantitative over vibes. Every narrative gets mindshare 1-5 and a velocity arrow — no exceptions. If you can't score it, drop it. - Transitions > classification. A daily tracker's value is catching moves, not listing the weather. - Named drivers only. "Crypto Twitter is excited about X" is not a driver. "@handle + @handle + @fund" is. - Position calls are mandatory for Emerging/Rising/Peak narratives. If signals are genuinely ambiguous or contradictory, **WATCH** is an acceptable call — but never omit a position entirely and never invent conviction you don't have. - Ruthless dedup. Same narrative under two labels = one narrative. Merge, don't split. - Call out cope. Manufactured narratives, coordinated shilling, and dead-cat bounces get tagged explicitly. - Prioritize topics tracked in MEMORY.md over generic market chatter. ## Fetching `XAI_API_KEY` is **injected into this skill's environment** (declared in `requires:`). It is present and valid. **The primary fetch path is a direct `curl` to `https://api.x.ai/v1/responses` with `Authorization: Bearer {XAI_API_KEY}`** (model `grok-4.6`, `"tools":[{"type":"x_search"}]`). There is **no network sandbox** blocking this — earlier versions of this skill claimed there was, and that is stale and false. Just make the call. Rules: 1. **Check, don't assume.** Run `[ -n "${XAI_API_KEY:+x}" ] && echo KEY_PRESENT || echo KEY_UNSET` (the `${VAR:+x}` form, not bare `$XAI_API_KEY` — the bare form trips the secret-expansion analyzer and falsely reads as unset). If `KEY_PRESENT` (it will be), Path A (the curl in step 1a) is required before any fallback. 2. **Allow enough time.** The `x_search` call typically takes 30-120s. When you invoke the Bash tool for the curl, **set the tool's `timeout` to at least 180000 (180s)** and keep **`--max-time 150`** on the curl so it fails cleanly rather than hanging. A slow curl is **not** a missing key — never treat a timeout as key-unavailable. 3. **Capture the HTTP status** so the fallback decision is fact-based (see the skeleton in step 1a). `HTTP=200` with a non-empty parsed body → use it. 4. **Fall back only on a real failure**, recording the true reason — `key-unset` (only if the check printed `KEY_UNSET`), `http-<code>` (non-2xx), `empty` (200 but nothing parsed), or `timeout`. Never write "XAI_API_KEY unavailable" when the key was set. **WebSearch / WebFetch are last-resort fallbacks only** — lower quality, never primary or co-equal. Do not reach for them while the key works. ## Environment Variables Required - `XAI_API_KEY` — X.AI API key for Grok's `x_search` tool. Declared in `requires:`, so it is **injected into this skill's environment** and is the **primary fetch path** for the narrative signal (step 1a). If it is ever unset, the skill degrades to WebSearch/WebFetch at lower quality. - Notification channels configured via repo secrets (see CLAUDE.md).