longbridge-graham-stock-analysis

name	longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
description	Graham cigar-butt (NCAV / net-net) single-stock diagnostic. Combines a 100-point static cheapness score (NCAV, PE, PB, dividend yield, debt coverage, earnings stability) with a dynamic adjustment layer (industry cycle, earnings trend, insider activity, NCAV trajectory) to separate real bargains from value traps. Pulls data from Longbridge CLI first; MCP fallback if CLI unavailable; falls back to WebSearch only for gaps, runs cross-statement reconciliation (勾稽校验) before scoring, and footnotes every figure to its source. Triggers: "格雷厄姆", "捡烟蒂", "烟蒂股", "烟蒂投资", "NCAV", "净流动资产", "清算价值", "安全边际", "价值陷阱", "深度价值", "撿煙蒂", "煙蒂股", "煙蒂投資", "淨流動資產", "清算價值", "安全邊際", "價值陷阱", "深度價值", "Graham", "cigar butt", "net-net", "liquidation value", "value trap", "margin of safety", "deep value", "Benjamin Graham".
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"longbridge","version":"1.0.0","risk_level":"read_only","requires_login":false,"default_install":true,"requires_mcp":false,"tier":"analysis"}

longbridge-graham-stock-analysis

Prompt-only deep-value diagnostic. Given a single ticker, produces a Graham-style cigar-butt verdict: static cheapness score, dynamic trend adjustments, value-trap flagging, liquidation-value table, and an expected holding-period view. Every numeric input is reconciled across statements and footnoted to its source.

Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.

When to use

• "帮我诊断一下腾讯控股 00700" / "幫我診斷一下騰訊控股 00700" / "diagnose 700.HK with Graham cigar-butt"
• "BABA 是不是烟蒂股" / "BABA 是不是煙蒂股" / "is BABA a Graham net-net"
• "600519 NCAV 多少" / "600519 NCAV 多少" / "what is 600519's NCAV"
• "我持有这只股 6 个月了，还值得继续拿吗" / "我持有這隻股 6 個月了，還值得繼續拿嗎" / "I've held this 6 months, still worth holding"
• "这只股是真便宜还是价值陷阱" / "這隻股是真便宜還是價值陷阱" / "is this a real bargain or a value trap"

For multi-stock value screening use longbridge-value-screen. For DCF intrinsic value use longbridge-dcf. For three-statement reading use longbridge-financial-report.

Cognitive frame (do not skip)

Graham cigar-butt is patient arbitrage, not a dip-buy signal. Expected holding periods: 6–18 months (explicit catalyst), 1–3 years (sector re-rating), 3–5 years (organic accrual), or never (value trap — exit). Every output must surface holding-period expectation alongside the score; never display a score number without it.

Two failure modes the user must be able to distinguish:

• "Cheap but time hasn't come" → NCAV stable, keep holding.
• "Value trap" → NCAV shrinking quarter on quarter, exit.

Workflow

1. Resolve symbol to <CODE>.<MARKET> (e.g. 00700.HK, BABA.US, 600519.SH).
2. Detect sector. If banking / insurance / REIT / pure financial → halt and tell the user NCAV is not the right model; suggest longbridge-valuation-methodology instead.
3. Fetch raw data via Longbridge CLI first (parallel where possible). See §CLI.
4. Reconciliation gate (勾稽校验) — internal correctness check; must pass before scoring. Do not print this check or its results in the report unless it fails. See §Reconciliation.
5. Static score (0–100). See references/scoring.md for the six-dimension table and NCAV haircut defaults.
6. Dynamic adjustments — four factors (industry cycle, earnings trend, insider activity, NCAV trajectory). Industry-cycle data may not be in Longbridge; use WebSearch for PMI / inventory cycle / capacity utilisation. See references/scoring.md §Dynamic.
7. Value-trap check — if any 2 of 5 rules trip, override to "⚠️ value trap" regardless of static score. See references/scoring.md §Value-trap.
8. Output the 8-section report defined in references/output.md; finish with the Data source appendix (mandatory — every figure tagged to its source).

CLI

Run longbridge <subcommand> --help to verify exact flags before each call. Primary calls (run in parallel):

# Balance sheet — NCAV inputs (cash, AR, inventory, other CA, ST/LT debt)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report af --format json   # last 5 annual
longbridge financial-statement <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report qf --format json   # last 4 quarterly (NCAV trajectory)

# Income statement — PE, earnings stability (5y no-loss), EPS trend (4q)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report af --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report qf --format json

# Cash flow — operating CF (value-trap rule 4: persistent negative OCF)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report qf --format json

# Snapshot: PE, PB, market cap, dividend yield, shares outstanding
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge quote <SYMBOL> --format json

# Dividend history (for "等待成本" — 3% threshold)
longbridge dividend <SYMBOL> --format json

# Ownership / insider activity (value-trap rule 2: 大股东持续减持)
longbridge ownership <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge insresearch <SYMBOL> --format json

WebSearch fallback (only when Longbridge has a gap)

Use WebSearch only for items not available from Longbridge:

Missing data	WebSearch query pattern
Industry PMI / inventory cycle	"<industry name> PMI 2025", "<industry> inventory cycle", "中国制造业PMI"
Capacity utilisation	"<industry> capacity utilization"
Sector outlook (qualitative)	"<sector> outlook 2025 site:reuters.com OR site:bloomberg.com"
Recent insider transactions if ownership is stale	"<ticker> insider selling 2025"

Each WebSearch-sourced figure must be tagged [Source: WebSearch — <publisher>, <date>] in the appendix; do not mix it silently with Longbridge data.

Reconciliation (勾稽校验) — internal gate, not user-facing

Before any scoring, verify the fetched figures internally. Reconciliation is a correctness gate for the analysis pipeline; it is not part of the user-facing report. Do not print the check table, do not show per-row gap percentages, do not narrate "勾稽通过" in the conclusion. Reconciliation results only surface to the user in two situations:

• A check fails by > tolerance → halt scoring, tell the user which specific figure(s) cannot be relied on and why no score is emitted.
• A field carries a residual gap within tolerance that materially affects a downstream number → note it inline in the Data Source Appendix row for that field (e.g. "BS current-assets sum −1.4% vs reported total — within tolerance").

Check	Formula	Tolerance
IS↔BS	This-period net income ≈ Δ Retained earnings (BS) − dividends paid (CF)	±3%
IS↔CF	Net income + non-cash items (D&A + impairments + WC changes) ≈ Operating CF	±5%
CF↔BS	ΔCash from CF = Cash(t) − Cash(t−1) on BS	±1%
Current assets sum	Cash + AR + Inventory + Other CA ≈ Total current assets (BS)	±2%
Liabilities sum	ST debt + LT debt + Other liabilities ≈ Total liabilities (BS)	±2%
Shares outstanding	calc-index shares × current price ≈ market cap from quote	±2%
Period alignment	All statements from the same fiscal period (or note the lag)	exact

Silent-pass principle: if everything passes within tolerance, emit the scored report directly without referencing the reconciliation step at all.

Output

Single-stock diagnostic with 8 fixed sections (full template in references/output.md). The reconciliation check is an internal gate — do NOT include its table or pass/fail rows in the user-facing report; reconciliation only appears if a check failed (in which case no score is emitted) or if a residual within-tolerance gap needs to be flagged inline against a specific Data Source Appendix row.

1. Adjusted cigar-butt score card (静态分 → 动态调整 → 调整后分, with verdict tier 🟢🟡🟠🔴)
2. Six-dimension static breakdown (NCAV / PE / PB / dividend / debt coverage / earnings stability)
3. Dynamic adjustment detail (industry cycle, EPS trend, insider activity, NCAV trajectory, value-trap verdict)
4. Holding-period view (catalyst presence, waiting cost via dividend yield, expected horizon range)
5. Liquidation-value table (default vs industry-adjusted haircuts, adjusted NCAV per share)
6. Safety-margin price band (current price / default NCAV line / adjusted NCAV line / Graham buy line = adjusted NCAV × 0.67)
7. Three-line summary (valuation level / adjusted safety margin / Graham quantitative assessment — neutral, factual, no buy/sell recommendation)
8. Data source appendix — mandatory; every figure tagged with source, fetch time, and period (and any within-tolerance reconciliation note for that field)

Always close with the boilerplate disclaimer (see references/output.md §Disclaimer).

Compliance note: The three-line summary in section 7 must be stated as objective metric readings, not directional recommendations. For example:

• "当前价格低于格雷厄姆计算的内在价值估算，符合格雷厄姆 NCAV 量化标准（仅供参考）" — not "建议买入 / 低估值建议关注".
• "Current price is below the Graham-derived intrinsic value estimate and meets Graham NCAV quantitative criteria (for reference only)" — not "consider buying" or "recommended".
• The output must conclude with: 以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资决策请结合自身风险承受能力独立判断。/ The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make investment decisions independently based on your own risk tolerance.

Error handling

Situation	简体回复	繁體回覆	English reply
command not found: longbridge	回退到 MCP；若不可用，请安装 longbridge-terminal。	回退到 MCP；若不可用，請安裝 longbridge-terminal。	Fall back to MCP; if unavailable install longbridge-terminal.
stderr not logged in	请运行 longbridge auth login。	請執行 longbridge auth login。	Run longbridge auth login.
Sector = bank / insurance / REIT	NCAV 模型不适用于金融业，已切换提示；建议使用 longbridge-valuation-methodology。	NCAV 模型不適用於金融業，建議使用 longbridge-valuation-methodology。	NCAV does not fit financials; use longbridge-valuation-methodology.
Reconciliation fails >3%	明确披露差异项与差异比例，不输出评分；建议用户复核或换数据源。	明確披露差異項與差異比例，不輸出評分。	Disclose the failing check and the gap; do not emit a score.
Industry cycle data missing (WebSearch also empty)	标注「动态调整层数据不足，仅显示静态评分」。	標注「動態調整層數據不足，僅顯示靜態評分」。	Mark "dynamic layer unavailable, static score only".
< 5 years of financial history	盈利稳定性维度按已披露年限按比例打分，并在数据源附录注明。	盈利穩定性按已披露年限比例打分，並於附錄註明。	Score earnings stability pro-rata and note in source appendix.

MCP fallback

If longbridge CLI is not installed, use MCP tools:

MCP tool	CLI equivalent
mcp__longbridge__financial_report	longbridge financial-report
mcp__longbridge__financial_statement	longbridge financial-statement
mcp__longbridge__calc_indexes	longbridge calc-index
mcp__longbridge__quote	longbridge quote
mcp__longbridge__dividend	longbridge dividend
mcp__longbridge__ownership	longbridge ownership

MCP setup: claude mcp add --transport http longbridge https://openapi.longbridge.com/mcp (quote scope).

Related skills

• Single-stock valuation (PE / PB / EV-EBITDA) → longbridge-valuation
• DCF intrinsic value → longbridge-dcf
• Multi-stock value screen → longbridge-value-screen
• Three-statement reading → longbridge-financial-report
• Cross-statement deep analysis → longbridge-financial-analysis
• Method selection guide → longbridge-valuation-methodology

File layout

longbridge-graham-stock-analysis/
├── SKILL.md
└── references/
    ├── scoring.md      # static six-dimension table + NCAV haircuts + dynamic factors + value-trap rules
    └── output.md       # full 8-section output template + data-source appendix + disclaimer