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Define time-horizoned assumptions about your industry/domain that ground strategic thinking and prevent building on quicksand
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| name | industry-truths |
| description | Define time-horizoned assumptions about your industry/domain that ground strategic thinking and prevent building on quicksand |
| context | fork |
In rapidly changing industries (especially AI/tech), strategic decisions require grounding in what you believe to be true at different time horizons. This skill helps you define, document, and maintain those assumptions so every ideation session and strategic conversation carries that context.
When everything's shifting fast, it's easy to:
The solution: A structured file of industry truths across three time horizons (Today, 6 months, 12 months) that travels with your AI context.
/industry-truths — Create or update your Industry Truths file/industry-truths review — Review current truths and update based on new data/industry-truths validate — Compare your truths against what actually happenedThis is an interactive conversation, not a form. The goal is to tease out deeply held beliefs through questions, not just capture bullet points.
Start by explaining the concept:
Building on quicksand is expensive.
In fast-moving industries, strategic decisions need grounding in what you believe to be true at different time horizons. This skill helps you define those assumptions so they travel with every strategic conversation.
We'll explore three horizons:
- Today — What you believe is true right now
- 6 months — Emerging certainties
- 12 months — Strategic bets
Plus: who you track for signals (your "inferred truths" sources).
This takes about 15 minutes. Ready to start?
Ask: What's your industry or domain? (e.g., "B2B SaaS," "Product Management," "AI/ML tooling," "Enterprise Sales")
Why: Context for the rest of the questions. Truths about AI tooling differ from truths about enterprise sales.
Prompt: Let's start with what you believe is true today. Not conventional wisdom—your genuine beliefs based on what you're seeing.
Guiding questions (ask 2-3, don't interrogate):
Capture: 3-5 clear statements with brief reasoning
Example output format:
Prompt: Now let's think six months out. What do you believe will be true by [specific month 6 months from now]? These are emerging certainties—things you're reasonably confident about.
Guiding questions:
Capture: 3-5 emerging certainties with implications
Example:
Prompt: Finally, 12 months out—your strategic bets. What do you believe will be true a year from now? These might be wrong, but they're shaping your decisions today.
Guiding questions:
Capture: 3-5 strategic bets with reasoning
Example:
Prompt: What did you used to believe that you now think is wrong? Capturing these helps track your evolving thinking.
Capture: 2-3 rejected beliefs with brief explanation
Example:
After the interview, create 04-Projects/Product_Strategy/Industry_Truths.md (or update if it exists):
---
created: [today's date]
updated: [today's date]
domain: [user's domain]
tags: [strategy, assumptions, industry-truths]
---
# Industry Truths — [Domain]
A living document of what I believe to be true about [domain] at different time horizons. These ground all strategic thinking, ideation, and investment decisions.
**Purpose:** In a world where we're building on quicksand, this file ensures I'm not forgetting key assumptions when ideating. These truths travel with the AI so we're always thinking within this context.
---
## Today (Current Reality)
[User's "today" truths with brief reasoning for each]
---
## 6 Months Out (Emerging Certainties)
[User's 6-month truths with implications]
---
## 12 Months Out (Strategic Bets)
[User's 12-month truths with reasoning]
---
## Anti-Truths (What I Used to Believe, Now Reject)
[User's rejected beliefs with brief explanation]
---
## How I Use This
1. **Before Ideation:** Review truths relevant to the problem space
2. **During Roadmapping:** Validate assumptions against time horizons
3. **Monthly Review:** Update based on new data, move items between horizons
4. **Share with AI:** Include in context for strategic conversations
---
## Change Log
### [Today's date]
- Initial version created via /industry-truths skill
After creating the file, tell the user:
✅ Created Industry_Truths.md
Dex is already configured to reference this file during strategic conversations (product decisions, roadmap planning, ideation sessions). Your truths will automatically inform future strategic thinking.
Next steps:
- Review the file and refine as needed
- Set a monthly reminder to update it (new data, move items between horizons)
- Use it before strategic conversations: "Let's ideate within my industry truths"
- Track validation: what was right, what was wrong, why?
Run
/industry-truths reviewto update or/industry-truths validateto check past predictions.
/industry-truths review)If user runs /industry-truths review:
Industry_Truths.md/industry-truths validate)If user runs /industry-truths validate:
Why this matters: Tracking accuracy trains your intuition about what bets to trust.
This skill is:
Encourage sharing: "Built my industry truths with Dex" is shareable social content