polymarket-sports-live

# Live Sports Score Arbitrage Real-time live score arbitrage against Polymarket sports markets using ESPN data. ## What It Does Every 2 minutes, pulls live scores from ESPN's public API and calculates fair win probabilities using sport-specific statistical models: | Sport | Model | Key Parameter | |-------|-------|--------------| | **NBA** | Gaussian | sigma = 12.5 points | | **NFL** | Gaussian | sigma = 13.5 points | | **NHL** | Gaussian | sigma = 1.5 goals | | **Soccer** | Poisson | lambda = 1.35 goals/90min | **Gaussian model**: P(win) = CDF(lead / (sigma * sqrt(t_remaining / T))) **Poisson model**: Calculates expected goals from current rate, sums probability of all winning scorelines. ## Edge Source Polymarket prices update slowly during live games - often 30-120 seconds behind real scoring events. ESPN's API updates near-instantly. This latency gap is the edge. ## Scheduling Runs every 2 minutes via cron (`*/2 * * * *`). Managed automaton (auto-executes on schedule). Only trades when divergence exceeds 10%. ## Requirements **pip dependencies:** `simmer-sdk`, `requests` **Environment variables:** - `SIMMER_API_KEY` (required) - get from simmer.markets/dashboard - `TRADING_VENUE` (optional) - defaults to `sim` for paper trading, set to `polymarket` for real - `SPORTS_DIVERGENCE_THRESHOLD` (optional) - minimum divergence to trigger trade, defaults to `0.10` (10%) - `SPORTS_TRADE_SIZE` (optional) - trade size in USD, defaults to `20.0` ## Usage ```bash python sports_live.py # dry run (default, no trades) python sports_live.py --live # real trades via SimmerClient python sports_live.py --live --quiet # cron mode ``` > Dry-run by default. Pass `--live` to execute real trades. ## Trade Execution Path 1. `sports_live.py` fetches live scores from ESPN public API (no auth needed) 2. Calculates fair win probability using Gaussian (NBA/NFL/NHL) or Poisson (soccer) models 3. Finds matching Polymarket markets via `SimmerClient.find_markets()` 4. Compares model probability to Polymarket price, applies >10% divergence threshold 5. If `--live`: calls `SimmerClient.trade()` with market_id, side, amount, reasoning 6. If dry-run (default): logs the signal but does NOT execute any trade ## Security - All trades go through `SimmerClient.trade()` only. No direct CLOB or wallet access. - Reads `SIMMER_API_KEY` and optionally `TRADING_VENUE` from env. No other secrets. - No wallet private keys are required or read by this script. - Dry-run is the default. The `--live` flag must be explicitly passed to execute trades. > Remixable Template: Fork this skill to adjust sigma values, add new > sports (MLB, tennis), change the divergence threshold, or plug in different > live score sources.