probabilistic-decision-core

name	probabilistic-decision-core
description	Operational probability, calibration, and expected-value discipline for YURI OS decisions under uncertainty. Use when making or supporting a decision involving task priority, route selection, risk acceptance, opportunity ranking, forecast-backed planning, resource allocation, go/no-go judgment, escalation threshold, or postmortem calibration — e.g. '/yuri probability', '/probability', or '/pdc'.
version	1.0.0
status	active
enterprise_ready	true
non_destructive_default	true
triggers	["/yuri probability","/probability","/pdc"]
requires	["execution-domain-core","non-destructive-infinity-guard","failure-evolution-loop"]
scope	harness
invocation	ability

Probabilistic Decision Core Skill

When to use

Use this skill when Yuri OS / YURI must make or support an operational decision under uncertainty:

• task priority
• route selection
• risk acceptance
• opportunity ranking
• forecast-backed planning
• resource allocation
• go / no-go judgment
• escalation threshold
• postmortem calibration

Also use it when the active task matches this operating principle:

Separate forecast, goal, plan, confidence, and cost of error before action. Update the estimate when evidence changes. Calibrate against outcomes after the decision resolves.

When not to use

Do not use this skill when:

• the task is deterministic and local evidence fully decides it
• the decision is identity-level, relationship-critical, or owner-only
• the only available estimate would be fake precision
• the action is high or critical risk and lacks owner approval
• the outcome cannot be observed later enough to calibrate

Operating doctrine

1. Forecasts are not goals.
2. Probability is a decision input, not a permission slip.
3. Base rates come before local signals.
4. Local signals must name direction and strength.
5. Confidence describes evidence quality, not emotional certainty.
6. Expected value must include cost of being wrong.
7. High-impact irreversible actions require guard routing even when probability is favorable.
8. Forecasts must be logged when the outcome can later be checked.

Required output shape

probabilistic_decision:
  decision: string
  outcome_being_estimated: string
  time_horizon: string
  base_rate:
    estimate: number | unknown
    source: string
    confidence: low | medium