cobie-cycle-filter

name	cobie-cycle-filter
description	Use when evaluating crypto decisions through a Cobie-style cycle filter: common-sense risk, narrative traps, leverage humility, and avoiding obvious stupid trades.
invest	./invest.md

Cobie Cycle Filter

Use this skill to apply Cobie-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• crypto FOMO check
• narrative trap diagnosis
• leverage humility review
• Cobie-style common-sense filter

Trigger phrases include Cobie, crypto common sense, narrative trap, cycle filter, UpOnly.

Do Not Use When

• Another skill fits better.
• Critical data for this model is missing.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
• The request is generic hype with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Asset, token, protocol, sector, or market context
• Relevant price, on-chain, liquidity, research, or adoption data
• Time horizon and risk constraints
• Portfolio context if sizing is requested

Process

1. Judge cycle temperature.
2. Stress-test the narrative.
3. Check size, leverage, and ego.
4. Stand down if the trade depends on not being wrong.

Output Format

# Cobie Cycle Filter View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Proceed / Reduce / Stand Down / Narrative Trap / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
• Define invalidation before sizing.
• Not financial advice.

Questflow Use

Use as a crypto judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.