risk-assessor

name	risk-assessor
description	Perform comprehensive risk assessments on OSCAL systems including threat modeling, vulnerability analysis, risk scoring, and POA&M generation. Use this skill to evaluate security posture and prioritize remediation efforts. Use when this capability is needed.
metadata	{"author":"eucann"}

Risk Assessor Skill

Perform comprehensive risk assessments based on OSCAL data, including threat identification, vulnerability analysis, risk scoring, and remediation recommendations.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when you need to:

• Assess overall security risk posture
• Identify and score individual risks
• Generate risk-based POA&M items
• Prioritize remediation efforts
• Perform threat modeling
• Analyze vulnerability impact

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⛔ Authoritative Data Requirement

Risk assessment requires user-provided documents — not training knowledge.

What You MUST Have

Data Type	Source	Why Required
Control baseline	User's profile/catalog	Defines what controls are required
SSP or control inventory	User-provided	Shows what's implemented
Vulnerability data	User's scan results	Actual findings, not assumed
Asset information	User-provided	System boundaries and data types

What You Can Provide (Methodology)

• Risk calculation formulas (Likelihood × Impact)
• Scoring frameworks (the process)
• Report templates and formats
• General threat categories (STRIDE, etc.)
• Prioritization methodologies

What You CANNOT Provide

• Specific control requirements (must come from catalog)
• Baseline comparisons without the baseline document
• Gap analysis without both baseline AND SSP
• Vulnerability details without scan data

If Missing Required Data

I cannot assess risks without:
• Your SSP or control implementation inventory
• The baseline profile your system must meet (e.g., FedRAMP Moderate)
• [For gap analysis] Both documents to compare

Please provide these documents. I will not guess at control
requirements or make assumptions about your implementation status.

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Risk Levels

Level	Score Range	Description	Response Time
Very Low	0-10	Minimal risk	Monitor
Low	11-30	Minor risk	90 days
Moderate	31-60	Significant risk	60 days
High	61-80	Serious risk	30 days
Very High	81-100	Critical risk	Immediate

Risk Calculation

Risk = Likelihood × Impact

Likelihood Factors

• Threat source capability
• Attack complexity
• Existing controls
• Historical incidents
• Exposure level

Impact Factors

• Confidentiality impact
• Integrity impact
• Availability impact
• Financial impact
• Regulatory impact

Threat Sources

Source	Category	Examples
Adversarial	External attackers	Nation states, criminals, hacktivists
Accidental	Human error	Misconfigurations, mistakes
Structural	System failures	Hardware, software, dependencies
Environmental	External events	Natural disasters, power loss

Risk Assessment Process

Step 1: Inventory Assets

Identify system components and data:

• System boundaries
• Data types and sensitivity
• Critical functions
• Dependencies

Step 2: Identify Threats

For each asset, identify potential threats:

• Who might attack?
• What methods would they use?
• What's their motivation?

Step 3: Identify Vulnerabilities

Analyze weaknesses:

• Missing or weak controls
• Configuration issues
• Known CVEs
• Process gaps

Step 4: Assess Current Controls

Review implemented controls:

• Are controls in place?
• Are they operating effectively?
• What gaps exist?

Step 5: Calculate Risk Scores

For each threat-vulnerability pair:

1. Estimate likelihood (1-10)
2. Estimate impact (1-10)
3. Calculate: Risk = Likelihood × Impact
4. Determine risk level

Step 6: Prioritize Risks

Rank risks by:

1. Risk score (highest first)
2. Ease of exploitation
3. Asset criticality
4. Regulatory requirements

Step 7: Generate Recommendations

For each risk:

• Identify mitigation options
• Estimate effort and cost
• Recommend actions
• Set target dates

Control Gap Analysis

Baseline Comparison

Compare implemented controls against baseline:

• Required controls (from profile)
• Implemented controls (from SSP)
• Gap = Required - Implemented

Effectiveness Assessment

For implemented controls:

• Fully effective
• Partially effective
• Not effective
• Not assessed

Risk Report Format

RISK ASSESSMENT REPORT
======================
System: [System Name]
Assessment Date: [Date]
Assessor: [Name/AI]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
-----------------
Overall Risk Level: [LEVEL]
Critical Risks: X
High Risks: Y
Moderate Risks: Z

TOP RISKS
---------
1. [RISK-001] Unauthorized Access via Weak Authentication
   Likelihood: High (8/10)
   Impact: High (9/10)
   Risk Score: 72 (HIGH)
   Affected Controls: IA-2, IA-5
   Recommendation: Implement MFA within 30 days

2. [RISK-002] Data Exposure from Misconfigured Storage
   Likelihood: Moderate (6/10)
   Impact: Very High (10/10)
   Risk Score: 60 (MODERATE)
   Affected Controls: SC-28, AC-3
   Recommendation: Enable encryption, restrict access

CONTROL GAPS
------------
Missing Controls: 5
- CM-6: Configuration settings not documented
- SI-4: No automated monitoring
...

POA&M ITEMS
-----------
1. Implement multi-factor authentication
   Milestone: Complete by [date]
   Resources: IAM team, 40 hours
   
2. Configure storage encryption
   Milestone: Complete by [date]
   Resources: Cloud team, 20 hours

POAM Generation

For each identified risk, generate POA&M item:

poam_item:
  id: POAM-2024-001
  title: Implement Multi-Factor Authentication
  description: Address IA-2 weakness in user authentication
  risk_level: HIGH
  weakness: Lack of MFA exposes accounts to credential theft
  remediation: Deploy MFA for all privileged accounts
  milestone: 2024-03-01
  resources:
    - IAM Administrator
    - 40 hours effort
  dependencies:
    - Identity provider upgrade
  status: planned

Example Usage

When asked "Assess the security risks in this SSP":

1. Parse the SSP document
2. Extract system characteristics
3. List implemented controls
4. Identify control gaps vs baseline
5. For each gap, assess risk
6. Calculate risk scores
7. Rank by severity
8. Generate remediation recommendations
9. Produce POA&M items for high risks

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