| name | value-stress-test |
| description | Use when a user explicitly wants to run bear/base/bull scenarios, named shocks, or a cash-flow pre-mortem on a company under study. |
| disable-model-invocation | true |
Value Stress Test
User-entry skill for scenario analysis and pre-mortem. It traces a shock through the operating and financial chain and reports conditional outcomes — never a single pseudo-precise forecast. Invoked explicitly; never auto-triggered.
Required reading: references/evidence-ledger.md for evidence classes and the board-conclusion template, and references/industry-adaptation.md for the relevant operating metrics.
Commands
| Command | Purpose |
|---|
/value-stress-test [shock or scenario] | Trace a named shock or build bear/base/bull cases through the cash-flow chain |
/value-kill [year] | Pre-mortem: assume material cash-flow failure by the chosen year and work backwards |
/value-stress-test
A stress test follows the selected shock through every link in the chain and shows how it transmits to cash:
price → volume → mix → cost → receivables → inventory → payables → CapEx → FCF → financing → management response
For each step, state the direction and magnitude of the effect, the operating metric that tracks it, and the evidence class behind the number.
Output bear, base, and bull cases as conditional stories. Each case must specify:
- Trigger — the event or condition that activates this case.
- Transmission path — how it moves through price, volume, mix, cost, working capital, and CapEx.
- FCF direction — the resulting free-cash-flow outcome.
- Falsification criterion — the operating metric or event that would disprove this case.
Never collapse the three cases into a false-precision point forecast.
Named shocks
Typical shocks to run on request include a 10% price decline, a 20% volume decline, a 30% raw-material increase, an extended collection period, high fixed-cost underutilization, and growth CapEx required merely to maintain competitiveness. Treat each shock as a conditional story, not a forecast.
/kill [year]
A pre-mortem. Assume the company is materially cash-flow impaired by the chosen year, then work backwards to the most plausible mechanism.
- Assume failure — the company cannot fund itself or destroys cash-generation capacity by the selected year.
- Work backwards through causes — which operating driver (price, volume, mix, cost, working capital, or CapEx) most plausibly broke first, and how did it cascade into the cash-flow chain?
- Name an early indicator — the leading operating metric or event that would have signalled this path while corrective action was still possible.
- Ask exactly one decision question — the choice a board would face to avoid or survive that path. Wait for the answer.
Discipline Rules
- Label every unsupported figure as an
Assumption or Unknown, never as a fact.
- Distinguish maintenance from growth CapEx — only post-maintenance cash is discretionary.
- When profit is involved, test receivables, inventory, payables, and CapEx before inferring FCF growth.
Safety
This is a research and learning framework. It does not produce investment recommendations, target prices, or trade instructions.
