market-sizing-analysis

# Market Sizing Analysis Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities. ## Overview Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay). ## Core Concepts ### The Three-Tier Market Framework **TAM (Total Addressable Market)** - Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share - Defines the universe of potential customers - Used for long-term vision and market validation - Example: All email marketing software revenue globally **SAM (Serviceable Available Market)** - Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service - Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints - Represents realistic addressable opportunity - Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)** - Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years - Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics - Used for financial projections and fundraising - Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape ### When to Use Each Methodology **Top-Down Analysis** - Use when established market research exists - Best for mature, well-defined markets - Validates market existence and growth - Starts with industry reports and narrows down **Bottom-Up Analysis** - Use when targeting specific customer segments - Best for new or niche markets - Most credible for investors - Builds from customer data and pricing **Value Theory** - Use when creating new market categories - Best for disruptive innovations - Estimates based on value creation - Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution ## Detailed patterns and worked examples Detailed pattern documentation lives in `references/details.md`. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.