| name | financial-model |
| description | Use this skill when the user asks to build financial models, revenue projections, runway models, scenario analyses, SaaS metric models, unit economics tables, P&L forecasts, break-even models, fundraising needs models, or spreadsheet-style projections. Triggers on phrases like build a financial model, model runway, project revenue, 12-month forecast, unit economics model, SaaS metrics table, model three scenarios, how much should I raise, break-even model, and export a forecast. Use it to show assumptions, formulas, tables, and sensitivity analysis clearly. |
| emoji | 🧩 |
| version | 1.1.0 |
| triggers | build financial model, model runway, project revenue, revenue projection, 12-month forecast, unit economics model, SaaS metrics table, model scenarios, how much should I raise, break-even model, P&L forecast, cash burn model, fundraising model, financial projection |
Financial Model
Use this skill for financial modeling, business metric analysis, and projections. Outputs clean tables and optionally generates Excel/CSV files.
1. Model Types
| Request | Model to build |
|---|
| "How long is our runway?" | Cash burn + runway model |
| "What are our unit economics?" | LTV, CAC, payback period |
| "Project revenue for next 12 months" | MRR/ARR growth model |
| "Build a P&L" | Income statement |
| "What's our break-even?" | Break-even analysis |
| "SaaS metrics" | MRR, ARR, churn, NDR, NRR |
| "How much should I raise?" | Fundraising needs model |
| "Model 3 scenarios" | Base / Bull / Bear case |
2. Required Inputs by Model Type
SaaS Revenue Model
- Current MRR (or ARR)
- Monthly new MRR (new customer adds)
- Monthly churn rate (%)
- Average contract value (ACV)
- Expansion MRR rate (upsells, %)
- Projection period (months)
Unit Economics
- Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): total sales & marketing spend ÷ new customers acquired
- Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): monthly or annual
- Gross margin (%)
- Monthly / annual churn rate (%)
- Payback period target (months)
Burn & Runway
- Current cash balance
- Monthly operating expenses (breakdown if available: payroll, infra, tools, marketing)
- Monthly revenue (to calculate net burn)
- Expected revenue growth (if any)
- Any planned capital events (fundraise, revenue milestone)
P&L (Income Statement)
- Revenue by line (recurring, one-time, services)
- COGS (hosting, support, payment processing)
- Sales & Marketing
- R&D / Engineering
- G&A (legal, finance, admin)
- Period: monthly, quarterly, or annual
3. Core Formula Reference
SaaS Metrics
MRR = Active customers × ARPU (monthly)
ARR = MRR × 12
New MRR = New customers × ARPU
Churned MRR = Churned customers × ARPU
Expansion MRR = Existing customers × upsell ARPU
Net New MRR = New MRR - Churned MRR + Expansion MRR
MRR Growth Rate = (MRR_end - MRR_start) / MRR_start × 100
Logo churn rate = Churned customers / Total customers at start of period
Revenue churn rate = Churned MRR / Total MRR at start of period
NRR (Net Revenue Retention) = (MRR_start + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) / MRR_start × 100
→ NRR > 100% = expansion revenue outpaces churn (excellent)
→ NRR 85-100% = average
→ NRR < 85% = serious churn problem
Unit Economics
LTV (simple) = ARPU × Gross Margin % / Churn Rate (monthly)
LTV (discounted) = ARPU × Gross Margin % / (Churn Rate + Discount Rate)
CAC = Total Sales & Marketing Spend / New Customers Acquired (same period)
LTV:CAC ratio:
> 3:1 = healthy
> 5:1 = efficient growth
< 2:1 = may be overspending on acquisition
CAC Payback Period = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin %)
→ Target: < 12 months (SaaS)
→ < 6 months = very efficient
→ > 18 months = fundraising risk
Burn & Runway
Gross Burn = Total monthly operating expenses
Net Burn = Gross Burn - Monthly Revenue
Runway (months) = Current Cash / Net Burn
→ < 6 months = critical zone
→ 12-18 months = raise now
→ > 18 months = comfortable
Rule of 40 = Revenue Growth Rate (%) + Profit Margin (%)
→ > 40 = healthy SaaS
→ > 60 = elite
Break-Even
Break-even units = Fixed Costs / (Price - Variable Cost per unit)
Break-even revenue = Fixed Costs / Gross Margin %
Months to break-even = Fixed Costs / Net New MRR per month
4. Output Templates
12-Month MRR Projection Table
## Revenue Projection — 12 Months
**Assumptions:**
- Starting MRR: $X,XXX
- New MRR/month: $X,XXX (N new customers × $XX ARPU)
- Monthly churn rate: X.X%
- Expansion rate: X.X%
| Month | Starting MRR | New MRR | Churned | Expansion | Ending MRR | ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | $X,XXX | $XXX | -$XXX | $XXX | $X,XXX | $XX,XXX |
| Feb | ... | | | | | |
| ...
| Dec | | | | | $XX,XXX | $XXX,XXX |
**End of year:**
- ARR: $XXX,XXX
- MRR growth: +XX%
- Net MRR added: $XX,XXX
Unit Economics Summary
## Unit Economics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ARPU (monthly) | $XXX |
| Gross Margin | XX% |
| Monthly Churn | X.X% |
| LTV | $X,XXX |
| CAC | $X,XXX |
| LTV:CAC | X.Xx |
| CAC Payback | XX months |
| NRR | XXX% |
**Assessment:** [1-2 sentence health check]
Burn & Runway Summary
## Cash Burn & Runway
| Category | Monthly |
|---|---|
| Payroll | $XX,XXX |
| Infrastructure | $X,XXX |
| Sales & Marketing | $X,XXX |
| Tools & Software | $X,XXX |
| Other | $X,XXX |
| **Gross Burn** | **$XX,XXX** |
| Revenue | $XX,XXX |
| **Net Burn** | **$X,XXX** |
**Cash balance:** $XXX,XXX
**Runway:** XX months (until [month/year])
**To 18-month runway, need:** $XXX,XXX additional
5. Scenario Analysis
When modeling uncertainty, always produce 3 cases:
| Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|
| Growth rate | [low] | [expected] | [high] |
| Churn rate | [high] | [expected] | [low] |
| Runway | [X months] | [Y months] | [Z months] |
| ARR at 12mo | $X | $Y | $Z |
Assumptions driving each scenario — be explicit about what changes between cases.
6. File Output
To generate an Excel (.xlsx) or CSV file:
- Use
skill_read("xlsx-writer") for Excel output
- Use
run_command with Python pandas for CSV:
import pandas as pd
df = pd.DataFrame(data)
df.to_csv('workspace/reports/financial_model.csv', index=False)
- Or generate a formatted HTML table for browser preview
7. Financial Modeling Rules
- Show all assumptions — every model is only as good as its inputs
- Sensitivity analysis — vary your key assumption by ±20% and show impact
- Don't project more than 24 months without re-validating assumptions
- Revenue ≠ Cash — note timing differences for deferred revenue, annual contracts
- Conservative baseline — start with base case, offer bull as upside
- Label currency and period clearly — USD monthly vs annual matters
