| name | discriminating-prediction-design |
| description | SOP: design key predictions and observation plans that can distinguish competing hypotheses |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| category | hypothesis-formation |
| type | sop |
| campaign | hypothesis-formulation |
| input | Set of competing hypotheses (from competing-hypothesis-generation output) |
| output | Discriminating prediction list + suggested observation/experiment methods |
| dependencies | {"skills":["subagent-spawning"]} |
Discriminating Prediction Design
Design the key predictions that can discriminate between competing hypotheses, providing direction for subsequent experiment design.
HARD-GATE
Preconditions (all must hold before starting):
1. There are ≥2 competing hypotheses (each with a unique_prediction field)
2. Each hypothesis has an explicit mechanism description
Not satisfied → stop and return an error: at least 2 competing hypotheses are required to design discriminating predictions.
Pipeline
- Pre-check: verify the completeness of the competing-hypotheses set
- Pairwise comparison: for each pair of hypotheses, find the situations where they predict differently
- Divergence-point identification: find the conditions or measurement dimensions where prediction differences are largest
- Discriminating observation/experiment design: design an observation or experiment that produces different results at the divergence point
- Feasibility assessment: technical feasibility + ethical feasibility + resource requirements
- Output the discriminating prediction list
Output Format
[
{
"comparison": "H1 vs CH1",
"divergence_point": "The condition or measurement where predictions differ",
"h1_prediction": "What H1 predicts in this condition",
"ch1_prediction": "What CH1 predicts in this condition",
"discriminating_observation": "The observation or experiment that would distinguish them",
"method": "Suggested research method (experiment/survey/natural experiment/meta-analysis/etc.)",
"feasibility": "high | medium | low"
