| name | saturation-analysis |
| description | Track score trajectories, detect saturation/failure points — 15 benchmarks, 50 papers, 60 web searches |
| dependencies | {"tactics":["score-trajectory-analysis"],"sops":["benchmark-synthesis","knowledge-acquisition-benchmark-inventory","knowledge-acquisition-saturation-detection","leaderboard-dynamics-analysis","metric-decomposition"]} |
Saturation Analysis Strategy
Track benchmark score trajectories over time to detect saturation signals, ceiling effects, and inflection points that indicate a benchmark has lost discriminative power.
Purpose
Determine which benchmarks are approaching or have reached saturation, quantify remaining headroom, estimate time-to-ceiling, and identify the specific failure modes that remain unsolved even at high aggregate scores.
Budget
| Resource | Floor | Target |
|---|
| Benchmarks analyzed | 10 | 15 |
| Papers read | 35 | 50 |
| Web searches | 40 | 60 |
State Ledger
<HARD-GATE>
| Metric | Current | Target | Status |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|
| Benchmarks analyzed | 0 | 15 | PENDING |
| Score trajectories built | 0 | 15 | PENDING |
| Papers fetched | 0 | 50 | PENDING |
| Papers read | 0 | 35 | PENDING |
| Web searches | 0 | 60 | PENDING |
| Saturation detections run | 0 | 15 | PENDING |
| Leaderboard analyses done | 0 | 10 | PENDING |
| Failure mode catalogs built | 0 | 5 | PENDING |
</HARD-GATE>
Cannot exit until 80% of all targets met.
Available Tactics
