| name | cumulative-tracking |
| description | Track evidence accumulation over time — cumulative meta-analysis protocol design. Budget: 40 studies, 40 effect sizes, 30 web searches. |
Cumulative Tracking Strategy
Design a cumulative meta-analysis protocol tracking how evidence evolves over time as new studies are published.
Purpose
Cumulative meta-analysis adds studies one-by-one in chronological order, showing when the evidence became conclusive, whether early studies were misleading, and how the pooled estimate stabilized. This strategy produces the protocol for temporal evidence tracking.
Budget
| Resource | Floor | Target |
|---|
| Studies identified | 28 | 40 |
| Effect sizes extracted | 28 | 40 |
| Web searches | 20 | 30 |
| Temporal coverage (years) | 5 | 10+ |
| Quality assessments | 20 | 40 |
Budget gate: cannot exit until 80% of floor met.
State Ledger
<HARD-GATE>
| Metric | Current | Floor | Target | Status |
|--------|---------|-------|--------|--------|
| Studies found | 0 | 28 | 40 | BLOCKED |
| Effect sizes planned | 0 | 28 | 40 | BLOCKED |
| Web searches done | 0 | 20 | 30 | BLOCKED |
| Year range covered | 0 | 5 | 10+ | BLOCKED |
| Quality assessed | 0 | 20 | 40 | BLOCKED |
</HARD-GATE>
Available Tactics
| Tactic | When to Use |
|---|
| effect-size-extraction | Extract effect sizes with publication dates |
| quality-assessment-protocol | Assess quality evolution over time |
| evidence-synthesis-planning | Plan cumulative pooling approach |
Available SOPs
| SOP | When to Use |
|---|
| pico-formulation | Frame the temporal evidence question |
| inclusion-criteria-design | Define eligibility with temporal scope |
| effect-size-planning | Standardize effect sizes for temporal pooling |
| data-extraction-form | Template with mandatory date fields |
| risk-of-bias-assessment | Per-study assessment (track quality trends) |
| heterogeneity-source-analysis | Time-varying heterogeneity |
| sensitivity-analysis-design | First-study effect, vintage analysis |
| publication-bias-assessment | Time-lag bias assessment |
| meta-analysis-synthesis | Final cumulative protocol assembly |
Execution Guidance
- Frame — Run
pico-formulation with temporal dimension explicit
- Scope — Run
inclusion-criteria-design with date range requirements
- Search — Systematic search emphasizing complete temporal coverage
- Order — Sort studies chronologically by publication date
- Extract — Use
effect-size-extraction tactic with date metadata
- Assess — Use
quality-assessment-protocol noting temporal trends
- Plan — Use
evidence-synthesis-planning for cumulative model
- Synthesize — Run
meta-analysis-synthesis for final protocol
Ensure no temporal gaps. Flag periods with no publications.
Output Format
protocol:
question: [PICO with temporal dimension]
temporal_scope: [start_year - end_year]
inclusion_criteria: [eligibility with date requirements]
studies_included:
- [study, year, effect_size, cumulative_n]
chronological_order: [sorted study list]
effect_size_type: [consistent metric across time]
model: [random-effects with cumulative pooling]
temporal_analyses:
- cumulative_forest_plot
- first_study_effect_test
- evidence_stabilization_point
- vintage_regression
time_lag_bias: [assessment plan]
quality_trend: [RoB evolution over time]
reporting: PRISMA-2020 + temporal extension
