| name | u0673-crisis-cost-benefit-forecaster |
| description | Build and operate the "Crisis Cost-Benefit Forecaster" capability for Crisis and Incident Response. Trigger when this exact capability is needed in mission execution. |
Crisis Cost-Benefit Forecaster
Why This Skill Exists
We need this skill because response quality determines whether incidents are contained or amplified. This specific skill prioritizes actions with the strongest net value.
When To Use
Use this skill when the request explicitly needs "Crisis Cost-Benefit Forecaster" outcomes in the Crisis and Incident Response domain.
Step-by-Step Implementation Guide
- Define the scope and success metrics for
Crisis Cost-Benefit Forecaster, including at least three measurable KPIs tied to slow containment and repeated outages.
- Design and version the input/output contract for incident timelines, response roles, and recovery artifacts, then add schema validation and failure-mode handling.
- Implement the core capability using cost-impact simulation, and produce forecasted ROI scenarios with deterministic scoring.
- Integrate the skill into swarm orchestration: task routing, approval gates, retry strategy, and rollback controls.
- Add unit, integration, and simulation tests that explicitly cover slow containment and repeated outages, then run regression baselines.
- Deploy behind a feature flag, monitor telemetry/alerts for two release cycles, and iterate thresholds based on observed outcomes.
Required Deliverables
- Capability contract: input schema, deterministic scoring, output schema, and failure modes.
- Runtime profile: simulation-lab using cost-impact simulation to produce forecasted ROI scenarios.
- Orchestration integration: crisis-and-incident-response:simulation-lab routing, approval gates, retries, and rollback controls.
- Validation evidence: unit, integration, simulation, regression-baseline suites and rollout telemetry.
Operational Runbook
Preflight
- Confirm the Crisis Cost-Benefit Forecaster request scope, source evidence, and measurable success criteria before execution.
- Verify feature flag skill_0673_crisis-cost-benefit-forecaster, approval gates, and rollback owner before autonomous use.
Execution
- Execute cost-impact simulation with deterministic scoring and reproducible trace capture.
- Produce forecasted ROI scenarios plus scorecard, assumptions, and unresolved-risk notes.
Recovery
- Fail closed when required signals, evidence, or approval gates are missing.
- Rollback to the last stable baseline when posture is critical or validation fails.
Handoff
- Publish forecasted ROI scenarios, validation evidence, and telemetry links to downstream owners.
- Queue follow-up tasks for unresolved risks, threshold tuning, or approval review.
Guardrails
- [quality] Require deterministic scoring and validation evidence before promotion.
- [reliability] Preserve retries, rollback controls, and failure-mode evidence for every run.
- [safety] Route critical posture or missing approval gates to human review before autonomous action.
