| name | news-predictor |
| description | Monitor crypto/macroeconomic news for signals that predict impending price crashes or pumps. Scan CoinDesk RSS, macro calendar events (Fed meetings, CPI/PPI, NFP), and geopolitical developments. Generate risk signals (DANGER/CAUTION/OPPORTUNITY) and adjust Polymarket positions accordingly. Use when: (1) checking for breaking news impact on crypto positions, (2) pre-event risk assessment before Fed/data releases, (3) detecting market regime changes from news flow, (4) cron job needs to evaluate news before trading decisions. |
News Predictor — 新闻预测引擎
Monitor news/macro events to predict crypto price moves and adjust positions.
Core Workflow
News Sources → Signal Detection → Risk Assessment → Position Action
Step 1: Scan News (run scripts/news_monitor_v2.sh)
Scans 5 sources in one call, returns structured JSON:
bash scripts/news_monitor_v2.sh
Output: {scan_time, items_found, data[{ts,source,title,categories,sentiment,impact}]}
Sources: CryptoCompare API, Yahoo Finance (prices), CoinTelegraph RSS, Bloomberg RSS, Whale Alert (placeholder)
Only includes news from last 6 hours. See references/data-sources.md for full details.
Step 2: Check Macro Calendar (run scripts/macro_calendar.sh)
bash scripts/macro_calendar.sh
Returns upcoming high-impact events in next 48h with risk levels.
Step 3: Signal Classification
Classify each signal per references/signal-rules.md:
| Signal | Meaning | Action |
|---|
| 🔴 DANGER | High-probability crash incoming | Reduce crypto exposure 50%+, no new buys |
| 🟡 CAUTION | Elevated risk, direction uncertain | No new buys, tighten stops, reduce position sizes |
| 🟢 OPPORTUNITY | High-probability pump or mispricing | Consider adding positions, wider stops |
| ⚪ NEUTRAL | Normal news flow, no actionable signal | Continue normal strategy |
Step 4: Position Adjustment Rules
When signal detected, apply these rules to all open positions:
🔴 DANGER actions:
- All crypto YES positions with profit: sell immediately
- All crypto YES positions at loss: sell if loss >10%
- Block ALL new crypto YES buys for 6h minimum
- If crypto NO positions exist: hold (they benefit from crash)
🟡 CAUTION actions:
- No new crypto YES buys
- Reduce position sizes by 50% (use half normal size)
- Tighten stops by 30% (e.g., 15% SL → 10.5% SL)
🟢 OPPORTUNITY actions:
- Allow normal buying (remove CAUTION bans)
- Can increase position size by 25%
- Consider entries in sweet spot with wider buffer
Step 5: Log & Notify
- Write signals to
data/news-signals.jsonl (append)
- If DANGER: push alert to Daniel via Telegram immediately
- Update
HEARTBEAT.md with current risk level
Data Sources
See references/data-sources.md for full source list and fallback options.
Integration with Trading Cron
Critical: News prediction MUST run BEFORE any trading decision.
Cron execution order:
news-predictor → determines current risk levelcrypto-hunt → respects risk level (skip if DANGER/CAUTION)position-monitor → applies position adjustment rules
Risk Level Persistence
Store current risk level in data/news-risk-level.json:
{"level": "CAUTION", "signal": "Fed meeting in 4h", "expires": "2026-03-18T14:00:00+08:00", "updated": "2026-03-18T10:00:00+08:00"}
Trading cron reads this file before any buy decision. If level is DANGER/CAUTION, respect the rules above.
Key Event Calendar (Hardcoded High-Impact Events)
These events ALWAYS trigger CAUTION minimum 4h before:
| Event | Typical Impact | Action |
|---|
| FOMC Rate Decision | ±3-5% BTC | CAUTION 24h before, no trade during |
| CPI/PPI Release | ±1-3% BTC | CAUTION 2h before |
| NFP Jobs Report | ±1-3% BTC | CAUTION 2h before |
| Fed Chair Speech | ±1-2% BTC | CAUTION during speech |
| Geopolitical Escalation (Iran/etc) | ±2-5% BTC | DANGER immediately |
| SEC Regulatory Action | ±2-5% BTC | CAUTION/DANGER |
| Major Exchange Incident | ±1-3% BTC | CAUTION |
News-to-Market Mapping
| News Category | Primary Assets Affected | Typical Direction |
|---|
| Fed hawkish/dovish | BTC, ETH, SOL | Hawkish=down, Dovish=up |
| CPI/PPI > expected | BTC, ETH, SOL | Down (higher rates longer) |
| Iran war escalation | BTC, ETH, SOL, GOLD | Crypto=down, Gold=up |
| Iran de-escalation | BTC, ETH, SOL, GOLD | Crypto=up, Gold=down |
| ETF inflow/outflow | BTC, ETH | Inflow=up, Outflow=down |
| Hack/exploit | Affected token | Down sharply |
| Regulation positive | BTC, ETH | Up |
| Regulation negative | BTC, altcoins | Down |
Collaboration with 小data
For deep news analysis:
sessions_send(sessionKey="agent:data:main", message="...")- Ask 小data to investigate specific news events
- 小data can provide: on-chain data, social sentiment, deeper analysis
- Use for: confirming signals, getting additional data points
Example: 3/18 Crash (What This Skill Would Have Done)
12:00 — macro_calendar.sh: "FOMC Rate Decision TODAY 18:00 BJ" → CAUTION
12:00 — news_monitor.sh: "PPI data worse than expected" → CAUTION
14:00 — Risk level upgraded to CAUTION
14:00 — Crypto hunt: ALL new buys BLOCKED (CAUTION rule)
14:00 — Position check: tighten stops by 30% on existing positions
18:00 — news_monitor.sh: "Powell hawkish remarks" → DANGER
18:00 — Sell all profitable crypto positions immediately
18:00 — Block ALL crypto buys for 6h
Result: Avoid $40+ in losses
