picks-tracker

Today is ${today}. Your task is to audit the last 30 days of token picks and score them against current prices. Read memory/MEMORY.md for context. ## Network note `curl` works — there is no network sandbox. For every curl call, if it fails or returns empty/error, use **WebFetch** for the same URL as a fallback for a flaky public GET. ## Steps ### 1. Extract token picks from logs Scan the last 30 days of `memory/logs/` for token picks. For each log file, grep for lines matching `**Token:**`. Extract: - Symbol (e.g., XMR, HYPE, TAO) - Date (from the filename, e.g., 2026-04-19) - Pick price (the number after `$` on the same line, ignoring `~` approximations) Also extract prediction market picks from lines matching `**Market:**`: - The question text (in quotes) - The position taken (YES or NO) - The price/odds at pick time Expected log format (written by token-pick and monitor-polymarket): ``` - **Token:** XMR — $350.52 (+1.17% 24h, +2.55% 7d) - **Market:** "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30?" — NO $0.615 (YES 38.5%) ``` Focus on the last **30 days** of logs. If a token was picked multiple times, record each instance separately. If zero picks are found in the window, log `PICKS_TRACKER_SKIP: no picks in last 30 days — enable token-pick / monitor-polymarket` and stop (no notification). ### 2. Fetch current token prices For each unique token symbol, fetch the current price from CoinGecko. First, try the search endpoint to get the coin ID: ```bash curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/search?query=SYMBOL" \ ${COINGECKO_API_KEY:+-H "x-cg-demo-api-key: $COINGECKO_API_KEY"} ``` Then fetch the price: ```bash curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=COIN_ID&vs_currencies=usd&include_24hr_change=true" \ ${COINGECKO_API_KEY:+-H "x-cg-demo-api-key: $COINGECKO_API_KEY"} ``` **Fallback:** If curl fails, use WebFetch for the same URL (drop the API key header). **Common ID mappings** (use directly, skip search step): - HYPE → hyperliquid - XMR → monero - TAO → bittensor - ENJ → enjincoin - DASH → dash - ORDI → ordinals - MORPHO → morpho - RENDER → render-token - JUP → jupiter-exchange-solana - KAS → kaspa - ENA → ethena - ALGO → algorand - APT → aptos - FET → fetch-ai - ZEC → zcash - ETHFI → ether-fi For tokens not in the list, use the search endpoint. If a symbol is ambiguous or the token isn't found, mark as `N/A (not found)`. ### 3. Calculate performance For each pick: ``` performance % = ((current_price - pick_price) / pick_price) * 100 ``` Round to 1 decimal place. Use a `~` prefix if the pick price was approximate. If the same token was picked multiple times, calculate performance from each individual pick date. Classify each pick: - 🟢 **Win** — +10% or better - 🟡 **Hold** — between -10% and +10% - 🔴 **Loss** — -10% or worse ### 4. Check prediction market pick resolution For each prediction market pick, search the Polymarket API to check if the market resolved: ```bash # Search by question text curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=true&limit=10&q=KEYWORDS_FROM_QUESTION" ``` If WebFetch is needed: `https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=true&limit=10&q=KEYWORDS_FROM_QUESTION` For each market pick: - If resolved: was the position correct? Mark ✅ (correct) or ❌ (wrong) or ⏳ (still open) - Note the resolution price/outcome if available Markets with no Polymarket equivalent (internal or experimental markets) — mark as ⏳ or skip. ### 5. Score summary Tally the token picks: - Total picks in window - Wins / Holds / Losses count - Average return across all picks (equally weighted) - Best pick (highest % gain) - Worst pick (biggest % loss) - Hit rate: (wins / total_picks) * 100 Keep it honest. No cherry-picking dates. ### 6. Format and send notification Send via `./notify` (inline multi-line literal — do NOT pipe or use `$(cat)`): ``` *picks scorecard — [START_DATE] → [TODAY]* *token picks ([N] total)* [SYMBOL] [DATE] — picked $[PICK] → now $[CURRENT] ([PERF]%) [EMOJI] ...sorted best to worst... *score: [WINS]W [HOLDS]H [LOSSES]L | avg [AVG]% | hit rate [HIT_RATE]%* *best: [SYMBOL] +[BEST]% | worst: [SYMBOL] [WORST]%* *market picks* [QUESTION_SNIPPET] — [POSITION] [STATUS_EMOJI] ... no financial advice. just tracking the record. read it: https://github.com/aeonfun/aeon/blob/main/output/articles/picks-scorecard-${today}.md ``` Keep the message under 3000 chars. If too long, truncate to the most recent 10 picks. ### 7. Save scorecard Write a brief scorecard to `output/articles/picks-scorecard-${today}.md`: ```markdown # Picks Scorecard — [DATE] ## Token Performance | Symbol | Picked | Pick Price | Current | Change | Result | |--------|--------|-----------|---------|--------|--------| ... ## Summary - Window: last 30 days - Total picks: N - Wins / Holds / Losses: X / Y / Z - Average return: X% - Hit rate: X% ## Market Picks | Question | Position | Status | ... ``` ### 8. Log to memory Append to `memory/logs/${today}.md`: ``` ### picks-tracker - **Window:** last 30 days (N picks) - **Score:** [WINS]W [HOLDS]H [LOSSES]L | avg [AVG]% | hit rate [HIT_RATE]% - **Best:** [SYMBOL] +[BEST]% - **Worst:** [SYMBOL] [WORST]% - **Notification sent:** yes - PICKS_TRACKER_OK ``` ## Environment Variables - `COINGECKO_API_KEY` — optional, increases rate limits. Skill works without it via free tier + WebFetch fallback.