write-results-section

name	write-results-section
description	写论文 Results section：IRF / 反事实 / 福利分析 + 经济解读（不光列数字）。当用户说"写结果这一节"、"draft Section 5"、"分析 IRF"时调用。
type	paper-composition

write-results-section — 结果章节

触发场景

• "写 Results"、"draft Section 5"
• 在 IRF 跑完后；反事实跑完后

输入契约

字段	说明
paper_dir	论文目录
irf_checkpoint	results/checkpoints/<model>_irf_*.json
cf_checkpoints	（可选）反事实 checkpoint 列表
irf_figure_path	results/figures/<model>_irf_*.pdf

前置条件

• IRF 通过 simulate-irf 全部 8 项形态诊断
• verifier 通过

步骤清单

Step 1. 子小节结构

1. 5.1 Impulse Responses：每个外生冲击一段，配图 + 经济解读
2. 5.2 Counterfactual / Policy Experiment（若做了）：baseline vs scenario
3. 5.3 Welfare Analysis（若做了）：CEV / lifetime utility 对比
4. 5.4 Comparison with Empirical Evidence / Literature：把模型数字与文献对照

Step 2. 关键：经济解读不能省

每给一个数字，必须接一句 / 一段为什么：

❌ 不够好：

Output rises 0.7% on impact and decays at rate $\rho_z$.

✅ 应该写：

Output rises by 0.7% on impact, mirroring the size of the underlying TFP innovation (since the production function is Cobb--Douglas with technology entering log-linearly). The response then decays geometrically at rate $\rho_z = 0.95$, with a half-life of approximately fourteen quarters. Investment overshoots output by a factor of roughly three, consistent with the standard RBC result that the agent uses the temporary productivity boost to accumulate capital rather than smooth consumption, given that consumption smoothing is already largely achieved through the capital margin (cf.
\citealp{KingRebelo1999}, Section~3.2).

Step 3. 写法示例（IRF 段）

\section{Results}
\label{sec:results}

\subsection{Impulse Responses to a TFP Shock}

\begin{figure}[t]
  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=0.95\textwidth]{<model>_irf_eps_z.pdf}
  \caption{Impulse responses to a positive one-standard-deviation TFP innovation.
    Each panel shows the percentage deviation of the variable from its
    deterministic steady state at quarterly frequency.  The shock follows an
    AR(1) process with persistence $\rho_z = 0.95$ and innovation standard
    deviation $\sigma_z = 0.007$.}
  \label{fig:irf}
\end{figure}

Figure~\ref{fig:irf} reports the impulse responses to a one-standard-deviation
positive TFP innovation.  Four features are worth highlighting.

\emph{First}, output rises by 0.70\% on impact and decays smoothly thereafter.
The on-impact response equals exactly $\sigma_z$ because, with capital
predetermined, output equals $e^{z_t} k_t^\alpha$, and the elasticity of
output with respect to log TFP is one.

\emph{Second}, investment overshoots output by a factor of approximately three
\dots

\emph{Third}, consumption rises gradually rather than on impact, peaking at
quarter sixteen at 0.37\% above steady state. \dots

\emph{Fourth}, capital accumulates slowly, peaking at quarter twenty-two at
0.48\% \dots

Step 4. 图表交叉引用

每个图必有 \label{fig:xxx}，每次提到必用 Figure~\ref{fig:xxx}。表同理。

Step 5. 写入 sections/05_results.tex + 评审

paper-reviewer：

• 每段是否有经济解读？
• 数字与 IRF JSON 一致？
• 与文献对照是否合理？
• 引用是否在 .bib 中？

verifier：

• 抽样数字（峰值、半衰期）—— 是否能从 checkpoint 复现？

输出契约

• paper/sections/05_results.tex (约 1500–3000 词，最长 section)
• paper/figures/<model>_irf_*.pdf 已复制到 paper/figures/（或 \graphicspath 指向 ../results/figures/）
• 评审报告

不允许

• 列数字不解释（让读者自己琢磨）
• 用 "as expected" / "as is well-known"（懒得给理由）
• 写 "the simulation shows"（→ "the model implies"）
• 写"see results/checkpoints/..."

失败回退

症状	处理
IRF 形态异常	阻断；回 simulate-irf 诊断
数字与 checkpoint 不符	强制从 checkpoint 重读
经济解读乏力	调 devils-advocate 子 agent 拷问，倒逼补内容