| name | dys - Dystopia Analysis |
| description | Systematically construct and examine the worst possible outcome — what does failure look like at scale, and what path leads there? |
| output | {"format":"prose"} |
Dystopia Analysis
Input: $ARGUMENTS
Step 1: DEFINE THE DOMAIN
What domain are we imagining the worst case for?
DOMAIN: [what area of life, society, technology, etc.]
SCOPE: [individual / organizational / societal / global]
Step 2: CONSTRUCT THE WORST CASE
Follow current negative trends to their logical extreme:
A. What does it look like?
- What is the daily experience of people in this failed state?
- What problems have gotten worse?
- What capabilities have been lost?
- What relationships and structures have broken down?
- What do people spend their time on? (Survival, coping, conflict?)
B. What went wrong?
- What single failure was the tipping point?
- What cascade of failures followed?
- What warnings were ignored?
- What safeguards failed?
- What was the "we should have seen this coming" moment?
C. How did we get here?
Trace the path from now to the dystopia:
- What was the first step on this path?
- What was the point of no return?
- What seemed reasonable at each step but was catastrophic in aggregate?
- What feedback loops accelerated the decline?
Step 3: EARLY WARNING SIGNALS
For the dystopian path identified:
- What signals would appear FIRST? (Things we should be watching for now)
- What signals mean we're past the point of easy correction?
- What signals mean it's too late?
EARLY WARNINGS:
Stage 1 (still easy to fix): [signal]
Stage 2 (harder to fix): [signal]
Stage 3 (very difficult): [signal]
Stage 4 (too late): [signal]
Step 4: WHO SUFFERS
- Who is harmed first? (Canary in the coal mine)
- Who is harmed most?
- Who doesn't realize they're being harmed until it's too late?
- Who benefits from the dystopia? (There are always beneficiaries)
- Who has the power to prevent it but doesn't?
Step 5: PREVENTION
The value of dystopia analysis is prevention.
- Interventions — What would prevent the worst case at each stage?
- Monitoring — What should we be measuring to detect the early warnings?
- Safeguards — What structural protections should exist?
- Red lines — What should trigger immediate action?
- Resilience — If prevention fails, what makes the bad outcome survivable?
Step 6: OUTPUT
DYSTOPIA ANALYSIS:
Domain: [area]
The worst case:
[2-3 sentence description of the dystopia]
Path to dystopia:
1. [first step — seems reasonable]
2. [second step — warning signs appear]
3. [third step — point of no return]
4. [arrival — full dystopia]
Early warnings to watch:
- [signal 1] — current status: [present/absent]
- [signal 2] — current status: [present/absent]
Who suffers first: [canary group]
Who benefits: [who gains from the bad outcome]
Prevention priorities:
1. [most important intervention]
2. [second most important]
Red line: [if THIS happens, act immediately]
Most useful insight: [what this analysis changes about current decisions]
Integration
Use with:
/utp -> Contrast with best-case analysis/fut -> Ground in realistic timeframes/saf -> Full safety analysis on current state/obo -> Check for obvious bad outcomes already present/prm -> Pre-mortem on specific plans
