epic-hypothesis

name	epic-hypothesis
argument-hint	[initiative or epic idea]
description	Frame an epic as a testable hypothesis with target user, expected outcome, and validation method. Use when defining a major initiative before roadmap, discovery, or delivery planning.
intent	Frame epics as testable hypotheses using an if/then structure that articulates the action or solution, the target beneficiary, the expected outcome, and how you'll validate success. Use this to manage uncertainty in product development by making assumptions explicit, defining lightweight experiments ("tiny acts of discovery"), and establishing measurable success criteria before committing to full build-out.
type	component
theme	pm-artifacts
best_for	["Framing a major initiative as something that can be proven wrong","Forcing an outcome and a validation method before build starts","Giving a team a shared bet to test instead of a scope to deliver"]
scenarios	["Leadership approved a big initiative and nobody can say what would prove it wrong","I need to frame this epic as a bet with a real validation method, not a delivery plan"]
estimated_time	15-20 min

Purpose

Frame epics as testable hypotheses using an if/then structure that articulates the action or solution, the target beneficiary, the expected outcome, and how you'll validate success. Use this to manage uncertainty in product development by making assumptions explicit, defining lightweight experiments ("tiny acts of discovery"), and establishing measurable success criteria before committing to full build-out.

This is not a requirements spec—it's a hypothesis you're testing, not a feature you're committed to shipping.

Input

Works best with: The initiative or epic idea, in whatever form it currently exists — a sentence is enough. Also useful: The target user, the outcome you expect, and how you might measure it (the skill helps you sharpen all three).

Anything supplied with the invocation itself — text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an appended ARGUMENTS: line — counts as answers already given. Use it and skip whatever it covers; don't re-ask.

Arriving empty-handed? That works too. The skill asks what the initiative is and who it's for, then builds the if/then hypothesis with you.

Example invocation: Frame as an epic hypothesis: adding usage-based alerts so account admins catch overages before invoice shock.

Key Concepts

The Epic Hypothesis Framework

Inspired by Tim Herbig's Lean UX hypothesis format, the structure is:

If/Then Hypothesis:

• If we [action or solution on behalf of target persona]
• for [target persona]
• Then we will [attain or achieve a desirable outcome or job-to-be-done]

Tiny Acts of Discovery Experiments:

• We will test our assumption by:
  • [Experiment 1]
  • [Experiment 2]
  • [Add more as necessary]

Validation Measures:

• We know our hypothesis is valid if within [timeframe]
• we observe:
  • [Quantitative measurable outcome]
  • [Qualitative measurable outcome]
  • [Add more as necessary]

Why This Structure Works

• Hypothesis-driven: Forces you to state what you believe (and could be wrong about)
• Outcome-focused: "Then we will" emphasizes user benefit, not feature output