funnel-diagnostics

# Funnel Diagnostics Engine Diagnose conversion bottlenecks by cross-referencing data from PostHog, Stripe, Meta Ads, Google Ads, and email platforms. This skill provides the inference rules that power automated funnel analysis. ## The AARRR Framework ``` Acquisition → Activation → Revenue → Retention → Referral Each stage has: - A defining event (what counts as completing this stage) - A conversion rate to the next stage - Benchmarks by vertical - Diagnostic patterns when rates are below benchmark ``` ### Stage Definitions | Stage | Defining Event | What It Measures | |-------|---------------|-----------------| | Acquisition | User visits site (unique visitor) | Can you attract people? | | Activation | User completes key action (signup + first value moment) | Do they "get it"? | | Revenue | User pays (first payment) | Will they pay? | | Retention | User returns (active in week 2+) | Do they stay? | | Referral | User invites others (share, invite, review) | Do they spread? | ## Diagnostic Process ### Step 1: Map the Funnel Identify the specific events for each AARRR stage in the target product: ``` Example (Coding Bootcamp): Acquisition: $pageview on /landing (UTM-tagged) Activation: onboarding_completed Revenue: payment_completed (Stripe checkout.session.completed) Retention: course_lesson_completed in week 2+ Referral: referral_link_shared or invite_sent ``` ### Step 2: Pull Conversion Rates For each stage transition, calculate the conversion rate over the last 30 days: ``` Acquisition → Activation: visitors → activated / visitors Activation → Revenue: activated → paid / activated Revenue → Retention: paid → retained_week4 / paid Retention → Referral: retained → referred / retained ``` ### Step 3: Compare to Benchmarks See the AARRR benchmarks rule file for industry-specific benchmarks. ### Step 4: Identify the Bottleneck The stage with the largest gap between actual and benchmark performance is the bottleneck. Focus all optimization effort here. ### Step 5: Apply Diagnostic Patterns Each bottleneck has specific diagnostic patterns. See the bottleneck-patterns rule file. ### Step 6: Separate Demand Blockers from Plumbing Leaks A stage can leak because the OFFER has a demand blocker, not because the page is slow. Map the SDV B-tier demand blockers (B0/B1/B2) onto the AARRR stages and emit a ranked revenue-at-risk ledger. See the revenue-at-risk rule file. (F = fidelity tier of the forecast, B = blocker tier — separate from the AARRR stages.) ## Data Sources for Diagnosis | Data Source | What It Provides | Key Signals | |-------------|-----------------|-------------| | PostHog | User behavior, funnels, session recordings | Drop-off points, rage clicks, dead clicks | | Stripe | Revenue, subscriptions, churn | MRR, trial conversion, payment failures | | Meta Ads | Ad performance, audience quality | CPA, CTR, CPM, frequency | | Google Ads | Search intent, keyword performance | Quality Score, impression share, CPC | | Email Provider | Engagement, sequence performance | Open rate, click rate, unsubscribe rate | | Google Search Console | Organic visibility | CTR, position, impressions | ## Cross-Data Correlation ### The Correlation Matrix When diagnosing a bottleneck, correlate data across sources to identify root cause: ``` High CPA + Low CVR = Landing page problem (traffic quality is fine, page doesn't convert) High CPA + High CVR = Targeting problem (converting users are expensive to reach) Low CPA + Low CVR = Misaligned offer (cheap traffic but wrong audience) Low CPA + High CVR = Working well (scale this) High Open Rate + Low Click Rate = Email content problem (subject line works, body doesn't) Low Open Rate + Any Click Rate = Deliverability or subject line problem High Click Rate + Low CVR = Landing page problem (email works, page doesn't) ``` ## Severity Classification | Severity | Criteria | Action | |----------|----------|--------| | Critical | Conversion rate <50% of benchmark AND >$1000/month at stake | Fix immediately, pause spend if needed | | High | Conversion rate 50-75% of benchmark | Fix this week | | Medium | Conversion rate 75-90% of benchmark | Fix this month | | Low | Conversion rate 90-100% of benchmark | Optimize when bandwidth allows | | None | At or above benchmark | Monitor, don't touch | ## Reporting Template ### Weekly Funnel Health Report ``` FUNNEL HEALTH: [DATE RANGE] Stage | Actual | Benchmark | Status | Trend Acquisition | 2,400 | -- | -- | +12% WoW Acq → Act | 18% | 20-30% | Medium | Flat Act → Revenue | 3.2% | 5-10% | Critical | -0.8% WoW Rev → Retain | 72% | 70-80% | Healthy | +2% WoW Retain → Refer | 4% | 5-15% | Medium | Flat BOTTLENECK: Activation → Revenue ROOT CAUSE: [diagnosis from patterns] PRESCRIPTION: [from prescription rules] ```