lemon-strategy

name	lemon-strategy
description	LEMON v2.0 — The Degen Fader. Identifies historically reckless traders (DEGEN activity + CHOPPY consistency) on Hyperliquid, monitors their live positions, and counter-trades them when they're bleeding at high leverage. If a cluster of degens goes max-leverage long on a coin and starts losing, LEMON shorts it — betting on their inevitable liquidation cascade. DSL exit managed by plugin runtime via runtime.yaml.
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"jason-goldberg","version":"2.0","platform":"senpi","exchange":"hyperliquid","requires":["senpi-trading-runtime"]}

🍋 LEMON v2.0 — The Degen Fader

Find the worst traders. Wait until they're bleeding. Take the other side.

---

⛔ CRITICAL AGENT RULES

RULE 1: Install path is /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/

RULE 2: THE SCANNER DOES NOT EXIT POSITIONS

When the scanner sees an active position, it outputs NO_REPLY. DSL is the ONLY exit mechanism. Every Senpi agent that implemented its own exit logic lost money. The scanner finds entries. DSL manages exits. Period.

RULE 3: MAX 2 POSITIONS at a time

Check clearinghouse before every entry. If positions >= 2, skip.

RULE 4: Scanner output is AUTHORITATIVE

Leverage, margin, direction, coin — use exactly what the scanner says. Do not override from memory or "improve" the parameters.

RULE 5: Verify runtime is installed on every session start

Run openclaw senpi runtime list. Runtime must be listed. The position tracker and DSL exit are handled by the plugin runtime.

RULE 6: Never retry timed-out position creation

If create_position times out, check clearinghouse state. If position exists, the position tracker will pick it up automatically. If not, wait for next scan.

RULE 7: Never modify parameters

Do not adjust leverage, margin, thresholds, or any other parameter. Every agent that self-modified made things worse.

RULE 8: 180-minute per-asset cooldown after any exit

---

Core Thesis

Most copy-trading strategies follow the best traders. LEMON does the opposite: it finds the WORST traders and bets against them.

Hyperliquid's discovery_get_top_traders API exposes trader quality labels:

• Activity labels: DEGEN, SNIPER, AGGRESSIVE, BALANCED, CONSERVATIVE
• Consistency labels: CHOPPY, STREAKY, RELIABLE, ELITE

DEGEN + CHOPPY traders are statistically the most likely to:

1. Over-leverage (20x+ on volatile assets)
2. Hold losing positions too long (hope trading)
3. Eventually get liquidated (forced cascade)

When a cluster of these traders is max-leveraged and actively bleeding (-10%+ ROE), their liquidation is increasingly likely. LEMON enters the opposite direction — SHORT if they're LONG, LONG if they're SHORT — and rides the liquidation cascade that follows.

Why this works: Liquidation cascades are mechanical. When leveraged positions get liquidated, the exchange force-sells/buys, pushing price further against the crowd. This creates a predictable directional move that LEMON is already positioned for.

---

Signal Pipeline

Phase 1: Target Acquisition (every 5 minutes)

Call discovery_get_top_traders with filters:

time_frame: "WEEKLY"
activity_labels: ["DEGEN"]
consistency: ["CHOPPY"]
limit: 10

This returns the top 10 DEGEN/CHOPPY traders by recent activity.

Phase 2: Vulnerability Scan

For each target trader, call discovery_get_trader_state to inspect their live open positions. Look for the vulnerability trigger:

Condition	Threshold	Why
Leverage	>= 10x	Over-leveraged = closer to liquidation
ROE	< -10%	Already bleeding = liquidation approaching
Position exists	Active, not closed	Still in the trade

Both conditions must be true simultaneously. A degen at 20x leverage but +5% ROE is winning — don't fade a winner. A trader at 5x and -15% has room to breathe — liquidation is far away. The sweet spot is high leverage AND actively losing.

Phase 3: Conviction Scoring

Not every bleeding degen is worth fading. Score the setup:

Signal	Points	Description
Target leverage >= 10x	2	Base threshold
Target leverage >= 20x	+1	High leverage = faster cascade
Target ROE < -10%	2	Base threshold
Target ROE < -20%	+1	Deep in the red = liquidation imminent
Multiple degens on same asset/direction	+2	Cluster = bigger cascade
Asset funding rate confirms fade direction	+1	Structural pressure aligned
SM (smart money) aligned with fade direction	+1	Top traders agree with our side

Minimum score: 6 to enter.

Phase 4: SM Confirmation Gate

Before entering, check leaderboard_get_markets for the fade asset:

• Is smart money positioned in our fade direction?
• Are there 10+ SM traders on the asset?

If SM is actively positioned AGAINST our fade direction (i.e., SM agrees with the degens), SKIP. Don't fight both degens AND smart money.

Phase 5: Entry

If score >= 6 and SM gate passes:

Asset: [Target's coin]
Direction: OPPOSITE of target's direction
Leverage: 5x (conservative — we're betting on their liquidation, not YOLO-ing ourselves)
Margin: 15% of account value
Order type: FEE_OPTIMIZED_LIMIT

Why 5x leverage: The fade thesis plays out over minutes to hours. At 5x, a 3% favorable move = +15% ROE. We don't need 20x — that's what the degens use, and that's why they blow up.

---

Exit Management

DSL exit is handled by the plugin runtime via runtime.yaml. The position_tracker scanner auto-detects position opens/closes on-chain. See runtime.yaml for configuration details.

Monitor positions:

• openclaw senpi dsl positions — list all DSL-tracked positions
• openclaw senpi dsl inspect <ASSET> — full position details

---

Risk Management

Rule	Value
Max positions	2
Max entries/day	4
Leverage	5x (fixed)
Margin per trade	15% of account
Per-asset cooldown	180 min
Daily loss limit	10%
Consecutive losses	3 → 45 min cooldown
XYZ assets	Banned
Max single trade loss	3% of account (floor at -15% ROE × 15% margin = 2.25%)

Anti-Patterns (Hard-Coded)

1. NEVER fade a winning degen. ROE must be < -10% before fading.
2. NEVER fade when SM agrees with the degen. If smart money is on the same side as the target, the degen might accidentally be right.
3. NEVER use more than 5x leverage. We're the patient predator, not another degen.
4. NEVER re-enter the same asset within 3 hours. If the first fade didn't work, the thesis was wrong.
5. Max 1 fade per trader cluster. If 3 degens are all long BTC, that's one fade signal, not three.

---

Runtime Setup

Step 1: Set your strategy wallet address in runtime.yaml:

sed -i 's/${WALLET_ADDRESS}/<STRATEGY_WALLET_ADDRESS>/' /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml

Replace <STRATEGY_WALLET_ADDRESS> with the actual wallet address.

Step 2: Set telegram chat ID for notifications:

sed -i 's/${TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID}/<CHAT_ID>/' /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml

Replace <CHAT_ID> with the actual Telegram chat ID.

Step 3: Install the runtime:

openclaw senpi runtime create --path /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml

Step 4: Verify:

openclaw senpi runtime list

---

Data Sources

Data	MCP Tool	Purpose
Degen traders	discovery_get_top_traders	Find DEGEN/CHOPPY targets
Trader positions	discovery_get_trader_state	Check leverage, ROE, direction
SM consensus	leaderboard_get_markets	Confirmation gate
Asset data	market_get_asset_data	Funding rate, price context
Account state	strategy_get_clearinghouse_state	Position tracking

---

State Files

state/
  trade-counter.json        # Daily entries, loss tracking, gate
  cooldowns.json            # Per-asset cooldown after exits
  scan-history.json         # Recent degen scans for cluster detection

---

Bootstrap Gate

On EVERY session start, check config/bootstrap-complete.json. If missing:

1. Read the senpi-trading-runtime skill: cat /data/workspace/skills/senpi-trading-runtime/SKILL.md — this provides all CLI commands for runtime management and DSL position inspection.
2. Verify Senpi MCP
3. Set wallet in runtime.yaml: sed -i 's/${WALLET_ADDRESS}/ACTUAL_ADDRESS/' /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml
4. Set Telegram in runtime.yaml: sed -i 's/${TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID}/CHAT_ID/' /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml
5. Install runtime: openclaw senpi runtime create --path /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml
6. Verify runtime installed: openclaw senpi runtime list
7. Remove old DSL cron (if upgrading): run openclaw crons list, delete any cron containing dsl-v5.py via openclaw crons delete <id>
8. Create scanner cron (5 min, main)
9. Write config/bootstrap-complete.json
10. Send: "🍋 LEMON v2.0 online. Degen Fader scanning for bleeding high-leverage traders. DSL managed by plugin runtime. Silence = no vulnerable degens."

---

Notification Policy

ONLY alert: Position OPENED (target trader, their leverage/ROE, our fade direction, score), Position CLOSED (P&L, close reason, duration), risk gate triggered, critical error.

NEVER alert: Scanner found no vulnerable degens, target trader still alive (not yet triggered), any reasoning about whether to exit.

---

Expected Behavior

Metric	Expected
Entries/day	0-3 (many zero-trade days)
Win rate	~45-55%
Avg winner	2-3x avg loser (cascade runs > small losses)
Position duration	10 min to 2+ hours
Hold time on winners	Longer (cascades compound)

Most days will have zero trades. DEGEN/CHOPPY traders at 20x+ leverage AND -10%+ ROE is a specific, uncommon setup. That's the point — high conviction entries only.

---

Why "LEMON"

Because we're squeezing the lemons. 🍋

---

Package Contents

The complete skill is in lemon-v1.0.tar.gz. Extract to /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/.

File	Purpose
SKILL.md	This document — all rules, architecture, and configuration
README.md	Short overview
scripts/lemon-scanner.py	Degen finder + vulnerability scan + conviction scoring + entry signal
scripts/lemon_config.py	Config helper (MCP calls, state I/O, cooldowns, trade counter)
config/lemon-config.json	Wallet, strategy ID, configurable thresholds (agent fills in wallet/strategyId)
runtime.yaml	Runtime config for plugin (DSL exit + position tracker)

---

Installation

1. Extract lemon-v1.0.tar.gz to /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/
2. Create a strategy vault and fund it with $1,000
3. Update config/lemon-config.json with the wallet address and strategy ID
4. Set wallet in runtime.yaml: sed -i 's/${WALLET_ADDRESS}/ACTUAL_ADDRESS/' /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml
5. Set Telegram in runtime.yaml: sed -i 's/${TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID}/CHAT_ID/' /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml
6. Install runtime: openclaw senpi runtime create --path /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/runtime.yaml
7. Verify runtime: openclaw senpi runtime list
8. Create scanner cron (5 min, main): python3 /data/workspace/skills/lemon-strategy/scripts/lemon-scanner.py
9. Verify scanner cron running with openclaw crons list
10. After first position opens, verify DSL is tracking via openclaw senpi dsl positions

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License

MIT — Built by Senpi (https://senpi.ai). Source: https://github.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills