bio-phylo-species-trees

name	bio-phylo-species-trees
description	Estimates species trees under the multispecies coalescent from per-locus gene trees with the modern ASTER astral binary (ASTRAL-III/wASTRAL/ASTRAL-Pro), plus SVDQuartets, BPP, and StarBEAST2. Covers why a species tree is not a gene tree, why each locus has its own genealogy that disagrees by incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) even with zero error, why concatenation is statistically inconsistent and positively misleading in the anomaly zone where more loci converge on the wrong tree with full support, why gene-tree estimation error biases summary methods, that localPP is not bootstrap and ASTRAL branch lengths are coalescent units, and how minority-quartet symmetry separates ILS from introgression. Use when multi-locus discordance, rapid radiations, anomaly-zone risk, concordance-factor interpretation, or concatenation-vs-coalescent choice arise. Routes per-locus gene-tree inference and gCF/sCF to modern-tree-inference, dating to divergence-dating, orthology to comparative-genomics/ortholog-inference.
tool_type	mixed
primary_tool	ASTRAL-III

Version Compatibility

Reference examples tested with: ASTER 1.15+ (provides astral/ASTRAL-III, wastral, astral-pro), IQ-TREE 2.2+ (concordance factors), PAUP* 4.0a168+ (SVDQuartets), BPP 4+.

Before using code patterns, verify installed versions match. If versions differ:

• CLI: astral --version then astral --help to confirm flags
• CLI: iqtree2 --version then iqtree2 --help to confirm flags
• CLI: PAUP* prints its version at startup; BPP reads a control file

If code throws an error, introspect the installed version and adapt flags rather than retrying.

The modern binary is astral from the ASTER package; input is a file of gene-tree Newick strings, one tree per line. The classic-Java ASTRAL uses -t for ANNOTATION level, but the ASTER astral uses -t for THREADS and -u for annotation -- copying a Java -t 8 (quartet support) into ASTER silently requests 8 threads with no annotation. Confirm which interface is installed before scripting.

Coalescent Species-Tree Estimation -- A Species Tree Is Not a Gene Tree, and Concatenation Is Inconsistent in the Anomaly Zone

"Estimate the species tree from my multi-locus phylogenomic data" -> Treat the dataset as a distribution of genealogies, not one tree, and estimate the species tree most consistent with that distribution under the multispecies coalescent.

• CLI: per-locus gene trees (modern-tree-inference) then astral -i gene_trees.nwk -o species.tre (ASTER)
• CLI: gene and site concordance factors via iqtree2 ... --gcf ... --scfl (shared with modern-tree-inference)

Scope: choosing and running a coalescent species-tree method, contracting noisy gene trees, and reading discordance honestly. Per-locus gene-tree inference and model selection -> modern-tree-inference. Computing and plotting gCF/sCF -> modern-tree-inference, tree-visualization. Single-copy vs multi-copy orthology upstream -> comparative-genomics/ortholog-inference. Dated species trees -> divergence-dating. Rooting -> tree-manipulation.

The Single Most Important Modern Insight

A species tree is not a gene tree. Each locus has its own genealogy, and under the multispecies coalescent (MSC) those genealogies disagree with the species tree -- and with each other -- by incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) alone, with zero estimation error. The disagreement is not noise to average away; it is signal generated by the coalescent running inside the species tree. Three load-bearing facts:

1. The most probable gene tree can be the wrong species tree. When two short speciation events occur in quick succession, the single most common gene-tree topology is not the species tree -- this is the anomaly zone (Degnan and Rosenberg 2006), and such gene trees are anomalous gene trees. A plurality vote across loci then converges on the wrong tree.
2. Concatenation is statistically inconsistent and positively misleading under ILS. It pretends all loci share one tree and behaves like a vote dominated by the most-supported site pattern; in the anomaly zone that pattern reflects the anomalous genealogy, so adding loci raises bootstrap support for the wrong topology toward 100% (Kubatko and Degnan 2007; Roch and Steel 2015). More data makes the error more confident, not less. The support is the trap.
3. The honest question is the distribution, not the tree. Coalescent summary methods (ASTRAL family) stay consistent because they ask "what species tree is most consistent with having generated this gene-tree distribution under the MSC?" -- and they work at the quartet level, where the matching topology is always the plurality and no anomaly zone exists. Concatenation answers a different, wrong question, and both outputs look identically resolved and supported.

When Concatenation Fails

Concatenation is consistent and efficient only when ILS is low. It is actively wrong in three coupled regimes, all driven by short internodes measured in coalescent units (generations / 2Ne):

1. Short internodes plus large ancestral Ne. A short branch gives lineages little time to coalesce before the next deeper population, so many survive and sort randomly. For a rooted triple, P(gene tree matches) = 1 - (2/3)e^(-tau) in coalescent units tau: at tau = 1 about 25% of gene trees are discordant, at tau = 0.3 about 50%, at tau = 0.1 about 60%. Large Ne shortens tau for the same number of years, inflating ILS.
2. The anomaly zone (Degnan and Rosenberg 2006). With two or more short successive internal branches (both well under ~1, especially under ~0.1-0.2 coalescent units), the most probable gene tree differs from the species tree. The zone grows with taxon number and with shorter, more clustered internodes.
3. Rapid radiations. Successive speciation in quick succession is built from exactly those short internodes, so radiations routinely show a majority of gene trees conflicting with the species tree. This is the canonical case for a coalescent method.

Method Taxonomy

Method	Citation	Type / role	When
ASTRAL-III (astral)	Zhang 2018	Summary, quartet-based; consistent under MSC; localPP, polytomy test, q1/q2/q3	Default genome-scale species tree from single-copy gene trees
wASTRAL (wastral/astral-hybrid)	Zhang and Mirarab 2022	Summary, weighted quartets; down-weights weak gene-tree branches	Current best-accuracy summary method for real (noisy) gene trees
ASTRAL-Pro (astral-pro)	Zhang 2020	Summary, quartet-based on MULTI-COPY gene-family trees	Paralog-rich families; uses families without pre-orthology
SVDQuartets	Chifman and Kubatko 2014	Site-based quartets from site patterns; NO gene trees	Short loci (RADseq/UCE/SNP); when gene trees are unreliable
BPP	Flouri 2018	Full-likelihood Bayesian MSC; integrates gene-tree uncertainty	Small high-stakes datasets; species delimitation; introgression (MSci)
StarBEAST2	Ogilvie 2017	Full Bayesian co-estimation of species tree, gene trees, dates	Dated species tree with full posterior uncertainty
Concatenation (IQ-TREE/RAxML)	--	Supermatrix ML; assumes ONE tree	Low ILS / high gCF only; never in or near the anomaly zone

Summary methods take estimated gene trees as input and assume they are true -- the central caveat (see failure modes). Site-based (SVDQuartets) and full-likelihood (BPP, StarBEAST2) skip that assumption but pay in scale: roughly tens of taxa for the full-likelihood methods. The speed/scale order (most scalable first) is concatenation < ASTRAL/wASTRAL < SVDQuartets < StarBEAST2 < BPP; model completeness runs the opposite way. Pick the most scalable method whose assumptions the data do not badly violate. Introgression detection (HyDe, Blischak 2018, Syst Biol; QuIBL, Edelman 2019, Science; the D-statistic) lives downstream of the symmetry diagnostic below.

Concatenation vs Coalescent Decision

Situation / diagnostic	Recommended
Low ILS: long internodes (>>1 coalescent unit), gCF high (>~70), few discordant gene trees	Concatenation fine; coalescent agrees and adds no advantage
Moderate ILS: gCF ~50-70, some short branches	Run wASTRAL; check gCF/sCF and the polytomy test on short branches
High ILS / rapid radiation: short successive internodes, gCF <50 (esp. <33), q2 ~ q3	Coalescent REQUIRED; concatenation is anomaly-zone wrong; quartet consistency holds
Low per-locus signal / unreliable gene trees	wASTRAL or contract gene-tree branches <10% support; or SVDQuartets (no gene trees); BPP integrates uncertainty
Paralog-rich gene families	ASTRAL-Pro (no pre-orthology); concatenation cannot use them
Need dated tree or delimitation	StarBEAST2 (dating) or BPP (delimitation); coalescent-unit lengths are not time
Suspected introgression (q2 != q3, D significant)	Model the reticulation (HyDe/QuIBL/BPP-MSci/PhyloNet); a tree masks it

Do not reflexively coalescent-everything: where ILS is low the two trees agree and concatenation pools weak per-locus signal robustly. The deliverable is concordance, not a single best method -- run both, compute gCF/sCF, and trust the coalescent tree exactly where the two disagree on low-gCF branches.

Estimate the Species Tree from Gene Trees

Goal: Turn per-locus gene trees into a species tree that is consistent under the MSC, after removing gene-tree noise that would bias the quartet counts.

Approach: Infer one gene tree per locus with branch support (modern-tree-inference), contract branches below ~10% support to polytomies (which ASTRAL handles correctly), then run wASTRAL as the primary estimate and astral for the classic localPP / polytomy-test workflow.

# Per-locus gene trees with support live upstream in modern-tree-inference:
#   iqtree2 -S loci_dir -m MFP -B 1000 -T AUTO --prefix loci   # one tree per locus
# Contract gene-tree branches below 10% support (Newick tools / nw_ed) -> polytomies,
# then concatenate into one file, one Newick per line:
#   cat loci/*.contracted.treefile > gene_trees.nwk

# Primary estimate: wASTRAL weights quartets by gene-tree support+length (noisy gene trees)
wastral -i gene_trees.nwk -o species_wastral.tre 2> species_wastral.log

# Classic ASTRAL-III for localPP + polytomy test. In ASTER, -t is THREADS, -u is annotation:
astral -t 8 -i gene_trees.nwk -o species.tre 2> species.log     # -t 8 = 8 threads here
astral -u 2 -i gene_trees.nwk -o species_annot.tre              # full localPP + q1/q2/q3 for all 3 resolutions
astral --root OUTGROUP -i gene_trees.nwk -o species_rooted.tre  # rooting improves branch-length estimation

# Multi-copy gene families (no pre-orthology) -> ASTRAL-Pro:
astral-pro -i family_trees.nwk -o species_pro.tre

ASTRAL returns an UNROOTED tree; root with an outgroup afterward. Branch lengths are in coalescent units (not time, not substitutions), and tip lengths are undefined in that mode. The classic Java astral.5.7.8.jar inverts the flags: there -t is the annotation level (-t 2 full, -t 8 quartet support, -t 10 polytomy test) and there is no -u.

Compute and Read Concordance Factors

Goal: Replace a single bootstrap/localPP per branch with how much of the actual data agrees, and read ILS-vs-introgression off the quartet symmetry.

Approach: Compute gene and site concordance factors against the species tree, then inspect the two minority quartet frequencies (q2, q3) at each contested branch.

# gCF = % of decisive gene trees containing a branch; sCF = % of decisive sites supporting it
iqtree2 -te species.tre --gcf gene_trees.nwk -s concat.fasta --scfl 100 --prefix cf   # -te fixes the topology for likelihood sCF
# cf.cf.tree carries gCF/sCF on node labels; cf.cf.stat has per-branch q1/q2/q3 counts

Then read each contested branch: under pure ILS the two minority topologies are equally probable (q2 ~ q3); introgression breaks that symmetry by inflating the one matching the direction of gene flow. A high-bootstrap branch with gCF ~ 25 is a branch where the data are screaming disagreement that the bootstrap hides.

Interpreting Concordance and Discordance

• gCF / sCF (Minh 2020) are the honest support. Bootstrap and localPP saturate near their ceiling at genome scale even when most loci disagree; gCF/sCF report the actual conflict. Report them on every phylogenomic tree.
• localPP (Sayyari and Mirarab 2016) is NOT a bootstrap. It is a coalescent posterior computed from the quartet frequencies around a branch. localPP = 1.0 is common and expected on resolved branches and does not mean "100 of 100 bootstraps"; localPP ~ 0.33 means the three quartet resolutions are tied (no resolution).
• The polytomy test (Sayyari and Mirarab 2018) is the principled alternative to staring at low support. It tests the null q1 = q2 = q3 (an effectively simultaneous speciation); failing to reject means a resolved bifurcation cannot be claimed -- collapse the branch.
• Quartet symmetry separates ILS from introgression. Symmetric minority quartets (q2 ~ q3) = ILS; handle with a coalescent tree. Asymmetric (q2 != q3, significant D-statistic / ABBA-BABA, HyDe gamma != 0, or QuIBL favoring the introgression component) = gene flow; a bifurcating tree cannot represent it -- model the reticulation. Confirm the asymmetry before invoking introgression.

Per-Method Failure Modes

Gene-Tree Estimation Error Biasing ASTRAL

Trigger: Short, low-information loci (e.g. <500 bp exons) fed to ASTRAL/wASTRAL as if their gene trees were truth. Mechanism: MSC consistency assumes the input gene trees are correct; estimation error is a non-coalescent noise source that biases quartet counts in finite samples and can make the coalescent tree worse than concatenation. Symptom: Coalescent tree noisier or worse than concatenation; unstable across locus subsets; low localPP everywhere; gCF far below sCF. Fix: Contract gene-tree branches below ~10% bootstrap before ASTRAL (they become polytomies that contribute no spurious quartet similarity); better, use wASTRAL (continuous weighting); or drop to SVDQuartets (no gene trees) or BPP (integrates gene-tree uncertainty).

Treating localPP as Bootstrap Support

Trigger: Reporting ASTRAL branch labels as bootstrap proportions, or demanding ">95% bootstrap" of an ASTRAL tree. Mechanism: localPP is a coalescent posterior from quartet frequencies, on a different scale; it saturates at 1.0 on resolved branches. Symptom: Over-confident reading of localPP = 1.0 as "100/100 BS"; ignoring that localPP ~ 0.33 is a near-tie. Fix: Interpret localPP on its own scale; report gCF/sCF for honest conflict; use the polytomy test to decide whether to collapse a branch.

Concatenating In or Near the Anomaly Zone

Trigger: Rapid radiation with several short successive internodes, analyzed by supermatrix ML with "100% bootstrap" reported as resolution. Mechanism: Concatenation is inconsistent and positively misleading under high ILS; the plurality genealogy is anomalous, so adding loci converges on the wrong tree with rising support. Symptom: Rock-solid bootstrap but gCF < 33 on focal branches; concatenated and coalescent trees disagree exactly there. Fix: Use wASTRAL/ASTRAL (quartet-level consistency holds in the anomaly zone); report gCF/sCF; trust the coalescent topology on low-gCF branches; consider a true near-polytomy via the polytomy test.

Ignoring Paralogy

Trigger: Discarding all multi-copy families to feed single-copy ASTRAL, or treating paralogs as orthologs. Mechanism: Standard ASTRAL assumes single-copy gene trees; mis-assigned paralogs inject quartets reflecting the duplication history, not speciation. Symptom: Massive data loss (most families dropped), or spurious clades / inflated discordance from hidden paralogy. Fix: Use ASTRAL-Pro on the multi-copy gene-family trees (it models orthology/paralogy without pre-orthology); audit orthology upstream (comparative-genomics/ortholog-inference).

Mistaking Introgression for ILS (or Vice Versa)

Trigger: Assuming all discordance is ILS and fitting a tree, OR over-calling gene flow from any discordance. Mechanism: ILS produces symmetric minority topologies (q2 ~ q3); introgression breaks the symmetry. A bifurcating tree cannot represent reticulate history. Symptom: Asymmetric q2/q3 on a discordant branch; significant D-statistic / HyDe gamma; QuIBL favoring the introgression component -- but a tree-only analysis hides it. Fix: Test minority-quartet symmetry (D-statistic / ABBA-BABA, HyDe, QuIBL, ASTRAL q1/q2/q3) before interpreting; if asymmetric, model the reticulation rather than forcing a tree.

Quantitative Thresholds

Quantity	Threshold	Meaning / action	Source
Internode (coalescent units)	< ~1.0	>25% of gene trees discordant; ILS material	P(concordant)=1-(2/3)e^(-tau)
Internode (coalescent units)	< ~0.3	~50% discordant; coalescent method required	same
Two+ successive internodes	both < ~0.1-0.2	Anomaly-zone risk; concatenation positively misleading	Degnan and Rosenberg 2006
Gene-tree branch support to contract before ASTRAL	< ~10% bootstrap (or use wASTRAL)	Collapse to polytomy to cut gene-tree-error bias	ASTRAL practice / Zhang and Mirarab 2022
gCF	< 50	Most loci disagree; distrust concatenation here	Minh 2020
gCF	< 33	Near the ILS coin-flip floor; effectively unresolved	Minh 2020
sCF	~33	Random-resolution floor (three quartet resolutions); no site signal	Minh 2020
localPP	~0.95+ to call "well-supported"	Strong coalescent support, NOT a bootstrap	Sayyari and Mirarab 2016
localPP	~0.33	Three quartet resolutions tied; candidate polytomy	Sayyari and Mirarab 2016
Polytomy test p	fail to reject (e.g. p > 0.05)	Cannot claim a resolved bifurcation; collapse	Sayyari and Mirarab 2018

The gCF/sCF cutoffs of 50/33 are practical heuristics relative to the dataset (a branch at gCF 45 amid branches at 90 is the weak one), not significance tests. The 10% contraction is a widely-used default, not a derived optimum; wASTRAL removes the need to pick it.

Common Errors

Error / symptom	Cause	Solution
ASTER astral ignores the annotation flag	Used Java -t 8 (annotation); ASTER -t is threads	Use -u 2 in ASTER; -t 8 only in classic Java
Coalescent tree worse than concatenation	Noisy gene trees fed in as truth	Contract <10% branches; use wASTRAL; or SVDQuartets
localPP = 1.0 reported as bootstrap	localPP is a coalescent posterior on its own scale	Report gCF/sCF; do not apply a BS cutoff
Coalescent-unit branch read as time	Branch lengths are coalescent units, tips undefined	State units; for dates use StarBEAST2 / divergence-dating
High bootstrap, low gCF, called resolved	Concatenation in the anomaly zone	Run coalescent; trust it on low-gCF branches; polytomy test
Most gene families dropped	Forced single-copy orthology	Use ASTRAL-Pro on multi-copy family trees
Network claimed from any discordance	ILS also produces discordance	Confirm q2 != q3 (D / HyDe / QuIBL) before invoking gene flow

References

Degnan JH, Rosenberg NA. 2006. Discordance of species trees with their most likely gene trees. PLoS Genetics 2(5):e68. Degnan JH, Rosenberg NA. 2009. Gene tree discordance, phylogenetic inference and the multispecies coalescent. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 24(6):332-340. Kubatko LS, Degnan JH. 2007. Inconsistency of phylogenetic estimates from concatenated data under coalescence. Systematic Biology 56(1):17-24. Roch S, Steel M. 2015. Likelihood-based tree reconstruction on a concatenation of aligned sequence data sets can be statistically inconsistent. Theoretical Population Biology 100:56-62. Mirarab S, Reaz R, Bayzid MS, Zimmermann T, Swenson MS, Warnow T. 2014. ASTRAL: genome-scale coalescent-based species tree estimation. Bioinformatics 30(17):i541-i548. Zhang C, Rabiee M, Sayyari E, Mirarab S. 2018. ASTRAL-III: polynomial time species tree reconstruction from partially resolved gene trees. BMC Bioinformatics 19(Suppl 6):153. Zhang C, Mirarab S. 2022. Weighting by gene tree uncertainty improves accuracy of quartet-based species trees. Molecular Biology and Evolution 39(12):msac215. Zhang C, Scornavacca C, Molloy EK, Mirarab S. 2020. ASTRAL-Pro: quartet-based species-tree inference despite paralogy. Molecular Biology and Evolution 37(11):3292-3307. Zhang C, Nielsen R, Mirarab S. 2025. ASTER: a package for large-scale phylogenomic reconstructions. Molecular Biology and Evolution 42(8):msaf172. Sayyari E, Mirarab S. 2016. Fast coalescent-based computation of local branch support from quartet frequencies. Molecular Biology and Evolution 33(7):1654-1668. Sayyari E, Mirarab S. 2018. Testing for polytomies in phylogenetic species trees using quartet frequencies. Genes 9(3):132. Chifman J, Kubatko L. 2014. Quartet inference from SNP data under the coalescent model. Bioinformatics 30(23):3317-3324. Flouri T, Jiao X, Rannala B, Yang Z. 2018. Species tree inference with BPP using genomic sequences and the multispecies coalescent. Molecular Biology and Evolution 35(10):2585-2593. Ogilvie HA, Bouckaert RR, Drummond AJ. 2017. StarBEAST2 brings faster species tree inference and accurate estimates of substitution rates. Molecular Biology and Evolution 34(8):2101-2114. Minh BQ, Hahn MW, Lanfear R. 2020. New methods to calculate concordance factors for phylogenomic datasets. Molecular Biology and Evolution 37(9):2727-2733. Blischak PD, Chifman J, Wolfe AD, Kubatko LS. 2018. HyDe: a Python package for genome-scale hybridization detection. Systematic Biology 67(5):821-829. Edelman NB, Frandsen PB, Miyagi M, et al. 2019. Genomic architecture and introgression shape a butterfly radiation. Science 366(6465):594-599.

Related Skills

• modern-tree-inference - per-locus ML gene trees (ASTRAL input) and gCF/sCF computation
• bayesian-inference - full Bayesian co-estimation; StarBEAST2 for species tree plus dates
• divergence-dating - turning a coalescent-unit species tree into a dated tree
• tree-io - reading and writing the Newick gene-tree files ASTRAL consumes
• comparative-genomics/ortholog-inference - single-copy vs multi-copy decision upstream (ASTRAL vs ASTRAL-Pro)