ck-predict

# ck:predict — Multi-Persona Pre-Analysis Five expert personas independently analyze a proposed change, then debate conflicts to produce a consensus verdict before a single line of code is written. ## When to Use - Before implementing a major or high-risk feature - Before a significant refactor or architecture change - Evaluating competing technical approaches - Stress-testing assumptions in a proposed design ## When NOT to Use - Trivial or low-risk changes (use `ck:debug` for bugs, `ck:plan` for already-decided tasks) - Already-approved work with no open design questions - Pure dependency upgrades with no API changes --- ## The 5 Personas | Persona | Focus | Core Questions | |---------|-------|----------------| | **Architect** | System design, scalability, coupling | Does this fit the architecture? Will it scale? What new coupling does it introduce? | | **Security** | Attack surface, data protection, auth | What can be abused? Where is data exposed? Are auth boundaries respected? | | **Performance** | Latency, memory, queries, bundle size | What is the latency impact? N+1 queries? Memory leaks? Bundle bloat? | | **UX** | User experience, accessibility, error states | Is this intuitive? What does the error state look like? Accessible on mobile? | | **Devil's Advocate** | Hidden assumptions, simpler alternatives | Why not do nothing? What is the simplest alternative? Which assumption could be wrong? | --- ## Debate Protocol 1. **Read** the proposed change/feature description from the argument 2. **Read relevant code** if file paths are provided (grep for affected areas) 3. **Each persona analyzes independently** — do not let personas influence each other during this phase 4. **Identify agreements** — points where all (or 4+) personas align 5. **Identify conflicts** — points where personas meaningfully disagree 6. **Weigh tradeoffs** — for each conflict, evaluate which concern has higher impact 7. **Produce verdict** — GO / CAUTION / STOP with actionable recommendations --- ## Output Format ``` ## Prediction Report: [proposal title] ## Verdict: GO | CAUTION | STOP ### Agreements (all personas align) - [Point 1 — what they all agree on] - [Point 2] ### Conflicts & Resolutions | Topic | Architect | Security | Performance | UX | Devil's Advocate | Resolution | |-------|-----------|----------|-------------|-----|-----------------|------------| | [Issue] | [View] | [View] | [View] | [View] | [View] | [Recommendation] | ### Risk Summary | Risk | Severity | Mitigation | |------|----------|------------| | [Risk description] | Critical/High/Medium/Low | [Concrete action] | ### Recommendations 1. [Action item — rationale] 2. [Action item — rationale] 3. [Action item — rationale] ``` --- ## Verdict Levels | Verdict | Meaning | |---------|---------| | **GO** | All personas aligned, no critical risks, proceed with confidence | | **CAUTION** | Concerns exist but are manageable — mitigations identified, proceed carefully | | **STOP** | Critical unresolved issue found — needs redesign or more information before proceeding | ### STOP Triggers (any one is sufficient) - Security persona identifies auth bypass or data exposure with no viable mitigation - Architect identifies fundamental design incompatibility requiring significant rework - Performance persona identifies unacceptable latency or query explosion with no workaround - Devil's Advocate exposes a false assumption that invalidates the entire approach --- ## Integration with Other Skills | Workflow Step | Skill | How | |---------------|-------|-----| | Deepen risk scenarios | `ck:scenario` | Feed Risk Summary rows as feature description | | Create implementation plan | `ck:plan` | Attach Recommendations as constraints to planner | | High-risk feature implementation | `ck:cook` | Reference CAUTION/STOP items as acceptance gates | --- ## Example Invocations ``` /ck:predict "Add WebSocket support for real-time notifications" /ck:predict "Migrate authentication from JWT to session cookies" /ck:predict "Add multi-tenancy to the database layer" /ck:predict "Replace REST API with GraphQL" --files src/api/**/*.ts ```