idea-validation

name	idea-validation
description	Validate startup ideas using the Kevin Hale/YC framework and Tom Bilyeu's 60-minute method—Mom Test interviews, GO/PIVOT/KILL decisions, and real founder case studies. Use when testing whether a problem is worth solving, designing customer interviews, or deciding whether to commit to an idea.

Idea Validation

Core Principle

The goal isn't to prove your idea is good. It's to find out how it's wrong before you waste six months building it.

Kevin Hale / YC Validation Framework

Every startup idea must pass three gates:

1. PROBLEM — Is this a real problem people pay to solve?
2. SOLUTION — Does your approach solve it better than alternatives?
3. INSIGHT — What do you know that others don't?

The Idea Matrix

Dimension	Weak Signal	Strong Signal
Problem frequency	"Sometimes annoying"	"Deal with this daily"
Existing solutions	"Nothing really"	"I cobbled together 3 tools"
Willingness to pay	"That would be nice"	"How much? When can I start?"
Urgency	"Eventually, maybe"	"I needed this yesterday"

Tom Bilyeu's 60-Minute Validation

Sprint through in one hour:

0:00–0:10  Write the problem in one sentence. If you can't, stop.
0:10–0:20  List 5 people who have this problem RIGHT NOW.
0:20–0:40  Contact 3 of them. Ask: "How are you solving this today?"
0:40–0:50  Identify what they hate about current solutions.
0:50–1:00  Write your unique insight — what you'd do differently and why.

Mom Test Interview Scripts

The Mom Test (Rob Fitzpatrick): never ask if your idea is good. Ask about their life.

Questions That Work

"Tell me about the last time you dealt with [problem]."
"What did you do about it?"
"What else have you tried?"
"How much time/money does this cost you?"
"If you had a magic wand, what would you change?"

Questions That Lie

Bad Question	Why It Lies	Better Version
"Would you use this?"	People are polite	"How are you solving this today?"
"Would you pay $X?"	Hypothetical money isn't real	"What do you pay for [current solution]?"
"Do you think it's a good idea?"	They'll say yes to be nice	"What would make you switch from [current tool]?"
"How often do you have this problem?"	They'll exaggerate	"When was the last time this happened?"

Interview Structure

1. Anchor in reality: "Tell me about the last time..."
2. Go wide: "What else have you tried?"
3. Go deep: "Why didn't that work?"
4. Find the money: "What does this cost you in time/dollars?"
5. Close with commitment: "Can I follow up when we have something to show?"

GO / PIVOT / KILL Decision Criteria

After 10+ interviews, score honestly:

GO (Build It)

• 5+ people described the same core pain unprompted
• At least 2 offered to pay or sign a letter of intent
• You identified a clear insight competitors are missing
• You can build an MVP in under 4 weeks

PIVOT (Change Direction)

• People have the problem but your solution misses the mark
• Adjacent problem surfaced repeatedly in interviews
• Market exists but your entry point is wrong
• Strong signal on "who" but weak signal on "how"

KILL (Walk Away)

• Fewer than 3 out of 10 recognize the problem
• Everyone's "fine" with current solutions
• No willingness to pay or commit time
• Your insight isn't actually unique

Case Studies

Vanta (Compliance Automation)

Problem validated: Startups losing enterprise deals over SOC 2.
Signal: Founders said "I'd pay anything to not deal with this."
Insight: Compliance is repeatable → automate the evidence collection.
Validation method: Sold annual contracts before writing code.

Flexport (Freight Forwarding)

Problem validated: Freight brokers using fax machines and spreadsheets.
Signal: Customers spending 10+ hours/week on manual tracking.
Insight: Software-first freight forwarding with real-time visibility.
Validation method: Manually brokered first shipments to learn the workflow.

Anti-Patterns

Validation Theater	Real Validation
Survey with 1,000 strangers	10 deep conversations with target users
"Everyone I asked loves it"	"3 people offered to pay before I built it"
Building MVP first, validating later	Validating the problem before writing code
Asking friends and family	Asking people who have the problem today
Counting sign-ups on a landing page	Measuring commitment: money, time, or reputation

Power Move

"Before I build anything, help me design a 5-question Mom Test interview for [target customer]. Then define GO/PIVOT/KILL criteria I should evaluate after 10 conversations."

The agent becomes your validation coach — structuring discovery so you learn the truth, not just what you want to hear.

Related Skills

Skill	When to use it
pm-design-thinking	After validation — define features through user outcomes and design thinking
product	After feature definition — write PRDs, prioritize roadmaps with RICE scoring