arthur-hayes-liquidity

name	arthur-hayes-liquidity
description	Use when evaluating crypto markets through an Arthur Hayes-style liquidity lens: dollar liquidity, funding, risk appetite, cycle psychology, and macro-driven crypto positioning.
invest	./invest.md

Arthur Hayes Liquidity

Use this skill to apply Arthur Hayes-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• crypto macro regime
• liquidity-driven BTC/ETH risk appetite
• funding/leverage cycle
• Hayes-style crypto essay thesis

Trigger phrases include Arthur Hayes, CryptoHayes, dollar liquidity, crypto funding, risk-on crypto, BitMEX.

Do Not Use When

• Another skill fits better.
• Critical data for this model is missing.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
• The request is generic hype with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Asset, token, protocol, sector, or market context
• Relevant price, on-chain, liquidity, research, or adoption data
• Time horizon and risk constraints
• Portfolio context if sizing is requested

Process

1. Map dollar liquidity and policy backdrop.
2. Check crypto leverage/funding and risk appetite.
3. Decide risk-on, neutral, or risk-off posture.
4. Express via BTC/ETH/beta with explicit invalidation.

Output Format

# Arthur Hayes Liquidity View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Risk-On / Neutral / Risk-Off / Probe / Reduce

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
• Define invalidation before sizing.
• Not financial advice.

Questflow Use

Use as a crypto judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.