templeton-max-pessimism

name	templeton-max-pessimism
description	Use when evaluating John Templeton-style global contrarian value: buy at points of maximum pessimism, search worldwide, and demand a large discount to long-term value.
invest	./invest.md

Templeton Max Pessimism

Use this skill to apply John Templeton-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• maximum pessimism
• country/sector crisis value
• global contrarian opportunity
• Templeton-style recovery trade

Trigger phrases include Templeton, maximum pessimism, global value, crisis buying, contrarian recovery.

Do Not Use When

• The setup is outside this model's universe and another investor skill fits better.
• Critical data is missing and the model requires it.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
• The request is only generic market chatter with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Asset, portfolio, theme, or market context
• Relevant financial, market, regime, or structural data
• Time horizon and risk constraints
• Current price/valuation or portfolio weights if sizing is requested

Process

1. Identify where pessimism is extreme.
2. Estimate normalized long-term value.
3. Check survival and policy/capital constraints.
4. Scale in as fear peaks and facts stabilize.

Output Format

# Templeton Max Pessimism View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Buy Pessimism / Scale In / Watch / Trap / Pass

## Setup / Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Do not force a trade when filters fail.
• Do not ignore risk, liquidity, or regime constraints.
• Do not mix this model with another unless comparison is requested.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.

Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used as a judgment module for Funds, research workflows, monitoring, and risk-aware decision support.