| name | layoff-intel |
| description | Assess layoff risk and prepare proactively for potential workforce reduction |
| disable-model-invocation | true |
Configuration
Read .jobops/config.json. If missing, stop with:
JOBOPS NOT CONFIGURED
Run /jobops:setup to initialize your workspace.
Use config.directories.<key> for all file paths in this skill.
Use config.preferences.cultural_profile if this skill generates resume-style content.
Use config.preferences.default_jurisdiction if this skill has jurisdiction-sensitive logic (crisis/legal skills accept --jurisdiction=<ISO-3166-2> to override).
Default Jurisdiction: Ontario, Canada
This command defaults to Ontario, Canada employment law framework for layoff protections.
Ontario Layoff Protections
Mass Termination Rules (ESA):
- If 50+ employees terminated in 4-week period: Extended notice required (8-16 weeks depending on number)
- Ministry of Labour notification required (employer files Form 1)
- Benefits must continue during notice period
- Individual employees still entitled to ESA termination/severance pay PLUS common law notice
Individual Termination Entitlements:
- ESA Termination Pay: 1 week per year of service (max 8 weeks)
- ESA Severance Pay: 1 week per year (max 26 weeks) if 5+ years service AND employer payroll $2.5M+
- Common Law Notice: Often 1 month per year of service (up to 24 months), based on Bardal factors
ROE (Record of Employment):
- Employer must issue ROE within 5 days of termination
- Code A (shortage of work) or Code M (dismissal) preserves EI eligibility
Key Differences from US:
- No WARN Act equivalent, but mass termination rules provide similar protections
- No at-will employment - all employees entitled to notice or pay in lieu
- Common law notice often provides 3-12+ months (far exceeds US severance norms)
- RRSP matching (not 401k) may be affected by layoff
For US users: Specify --jurisdiction=US for WARN Act, state UI, and US employment law guidance.
Important Disclaimers
CRITICAL: Read these disclaimers to the user at session start:
- Not Legal or Financial Advice: This guidance is strategic, not legal or financial. For complex situations involving severance negotiation, mass termination rules, or employment contracts, recommend consultation with an employment lawyer.
- Information Accuracy: Company intelligence is based on publicly available information and may not reflect internal realities. Verify critical information through official channels.
- No Guarantees: Even thorough preparation cannot prevent layoffs. The goal is to minimize impact and maximize readiness.
- Confidentiality: Be discrete about your preparation activities. Visible job searching may accelerate adverse outcomes.
Modes of Operation
Parse the mode from arguments:
--assess (default): Full company health assessment + personal vulnerability analysis--prepare: Create comprehensive proactive preparation plan--warn-signs: Focused analysis of organizational warning signs
Parse company name:
--company=CompanyName: Target company for intelligence gathering- If not specified: Ask user for their current employer
Phase 1: Company Health Intelligence Gathering
1.1 Financial Health Indicators
Use web search to research the following for {{company}}:
Public Company Research:
- Recent quarterly earnings reports and trends
- Stock performance (6-month and 12-month trends)
- Analyst ratings and price targets
- Revenue growth vs. cost growth
- Profit margins trending up or down
- Debt levels and cash runway
- Recent SEC filings for workforce mentions
Private Company Research:
- Recent funding rounds (or lack thereof)
- Runway estimates based on last raise
- Industry peer performance
- News about seeking buyers or going public
- Executive departures to competitors
- LinkedIn employee count trends
Search Queries to Execute:
- "[Company] earnings report [current quarter year]"
- "[Company] layoffs OR restructuring [year]"
- "[Company] stock performance analysis [year]"
- "[Company] financial health outlook [year]"
- "[Company] hiring freeze [year]"
1.2 Organizational Change Signals
Research recent organizational activity:
Leadership Changes:
- CEO/C-suite departures or arrivals
- New "Chief Restructuring Officer" or similar
- Board member changes
- Key executive departures to competitors
- Interim leadership appointments
Strategic Shifts:
- Announced reorganizations
- Division sales or spin-offs
- Major product line discontinuations
- Geographic market exits
- Office closures or consolidations
- Cost-cutting initiatives announced
Search Queries:
- "[Company] CEO departure OR new CEO [year]"
- "[Company] reorganization OR restructuring [year]"
- "[Company] office closure [year]"
- "[Company] cost cutting [year]"
1.3 Industry Headwinds Analysis
Research broader industry context:
Industry Health Indicators:
- Sector-wide layoff trends
- Competitor workforce actions
- Industry growth projections
- Regulatory changes affecting industry
- Technology disruption threats
- Economic cycle sensitivity
Search Queries:
- "[Industry] layoffs [year]"
- "[Industry] outlook forecast [year]"
- "[Company competitors] layoffs [year]"
- "[Industry] job market [year]"
1.4 Employee Sentiment Intelligence
Research employee-generated signals:
Glassdoor Analysis:
- Overall rating trend (improving or declining)
- Recent reviews mentioning layoffs, instability, or concern
- Management rating trends
- "Would recommend to a friend" percentage
- Reviews from verified employees in candidate's department
Blind/TeamBlind Research:
- Anonymous employee discussions about layoffs
- Rumor activity and credibility
- Sentiment about company direction
- Insider information sharing patterns
LinkedIn Signals:
- Employee count changes (shrinking headcount)
- "Open to work" badges from current employees
- Posting activity from executives
- Departure patterns (senior people leaving)
Search Queries:
- "[Company] Glassdoor reviews [year]"
- "[Company] Blind app discussions layoffs"
- "[Company] employee sentiment [year]"
- "site:reddit.com [Company] layoffs"
Phase 2: Organizational Warning Signs Analysis
2.1 Pre-Layoff Warning Signs Checklist
Evaluate the following indicators (ask user for internal observations):
Financial Warning Signs:
Operational Warning Signs:
People Warning Signs:
Communication Warning Signs:
Physical/Logistical Warning Signs:
2.2 Warning Sign Severity Scoring
For each warning sign category, score the severity:
| Category | Score Range | Interpretation |
|---|
| 0-2 signs | Green | Normal business fluctuations |
| 3-4 signs | Yellow | Elevated vigilance recommended |
| 5-6 signs | Orange | Significant concern; begin preparation |
| 7+ signs | Red | High probability; accelerate preparation |
Combined Risk Assessment:
- Low Risk: Fewer than 5 total warning signs across all categories
- Moderate Risk: 5-10 total warning signs
- High Risk: 11-15 total warning signs
- Critical Risk: 16+ warning signs or multiple Red categories
Phase 3: Personal Vulnerability Assessment
3.1 Role Criticality Analysis
Evaluate the user's position vulnerability:
Revenue vs. Cost Center:
- Revenue-generating roles (Sales, Customer Success) typically cut later
- Cost center roles (HR, Admin, non-customer-facing) typically cut earlier
- Product/Engineering depends on roadmap survival
- Executive support roles tied to their executive's survival
Questions to Ask User:
- "Does your role directly generate revenue or support those who do?"
- "Could your function be outsourced or automated?"
- "Would customers notice if your role disappeared?"
- "Is your work visible to senior leadership?"
3.2 Performance History Context
Performance Assessment:
- Recent performance reviews (last 2-3 cycles)
- Position in any stack ranking or calibration
- Recent recognition or awards
- Any documented performance concerns
- PIP history or informal warnings
Questions to Ask User:
- "How would you rate your last 2 performance reviews?"
- "Have you received any documented feedback concerns in the past year?"
- "Are you considered high potential or top performer?"
3.3 Compensation Vulnerability
Cost Analysis:
- Tenure and salary level relative to peers
- Recently promoted = lower risk (investment to recover)
- Long tenure + high salary = potentially "expensive"
- Recently hired = potentially "last in, first out"
- Stock vesting cliff approaching = may delay until after
Questions to Ask User:
- "How does your compensation compare to peers in similar roles?"
- "When is your next significant vesting event?"
- "Are you near a tenure-based benefit cliff (pension, sabbatical)?"
3.4 Skills Alignment Analysis
Strategic Fit:
- Do your skills align with company's stated future direction?
- Are you working on "strategic" vs. "legacy" projects?
- Have you adapted to new technologies/methodologies?
- Are you associated with growing or shrinking business lines?
Questions to Ask User:
- "Is your project/product considered 'strategic' by leadership?"
- "Have you been trained on new technologies in the past year?"
- "Is your business unit growing or contracting?"
3.5 Relationship and Visibility Assessment
Manager Relationship:
- How strong is your relationship with your direct manager?
- Would they advocate for you in reduction discussions?
- Have you had skip-level exposure?
- Does leadership know your contributions?
Department Health:
- Is your department growing or shrinking?
- Is your function being centralized or distributed?
- Have similar roles been eliminated elsewhere?
Geographic Considerations:
- Is your location an HQ or satellite office?
- Has your region seen recent closures?
- Remote workers sometimes more vulnerable (less visible)
- Sometimes remote workers safer (already lower cost)
3.6 Personal Vulnerability Score
Calculate a vulnerability score (0-100):
| Factor | Weight | Score Criteria |
|---|
| Role Criticality | 25% | Revenue (1) vs. Cost Center (5) |
| Performance History | 20% | Top (1) to Concern (5) |
| Compensation Level | 15% | Below market (1) to Above (5) |
| Skills Alignment | 15% | Strategic (1) to Legacy (5) |
| Manager Relationship | 10% | Strong advocate (1) to Concern (5) |
| Department Health | 10% | Growing (1) to Contracting (5) |
| Tenure/Visibility | 5% | Well-known (1) to Unknown (5) |
Vulnerability Interpretation:
- 0-20: Low vulnerability - but stay vigilant
- 21-40: Moderate vulnerability - begin passive preparation
- 41-60: Elevated vulnerability - active preparation recommended
- 61-80: High vulnerability - accelerate job search
- 81-100: Critical vulnerability - immediate action required
Phase 4: WARN Act Considerations
4.1 Federal WARN Act Overview
Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act:
When WARN Applies:
- Employers with 100+ full-time employees (or 100+ employees working 4,000+ hours/week combined)
- Mass layoff: 500+ employees at a single site, OR 50-499 employees if they represent 33%+ of workforce
- Plant closing: 50+ employees at a single site losing employment due to facility shutdown
Notice Requirements:
- 60 calendar days advance written notice
- Notice to: affected employees, state dislocated worker unit, local government
Exceptions (Shortened Notice Allowed):
- "Faltering company" - actively seeking capital that would prevent layoff
- "Unforeseeable business circumstances" - sudden, dramatic, unexpected
- Natural disaster
- Strike or lockout
4.2 WARN Penalties
Employer Liability for Violations:
- Back pay for each day of violation (up to 60 days)
- Benefits that would have been received
- Civil penalty up to $500/day to local government
- Reasonable attorney fees if employee prevails
Employee Action:
- File lawsuit in federal district court
- Statute of limitations: 3 years from violation date
- Class action possible for mass layoffs
4.3 State Mini-WARN Laws
States with Enhanced WARN Laws (research current state):
- California: 75+ employees, stricter requirements
- New York: 50+ employees at site, 25+ laid off
- Illinois: 75+ employees, various thresholds
- New Jersey: 100+ employees, broader coverage
- Others: Check current state law
Research Query:
- "[User's state] WARN act layoff notice requirements [year]"
4.4 WARN Implications for Preparation
If Company Has 100+ Employees:
- Layoffs may trigger 60-day notice requirement
- Watch for "voluntary separation" offers (may avoid WARN)
- Small, rolling layoffs may be structured to avoid thresholds
- Remote workers typically counted at their home location
User Questions:
- "How many employees does your company have?"
- "How many at your specific work location?"
- "Has the company done layoffs before? How were they structured?"
Phase 5: Severance Intelligence
5.1 Research Company Severance Patterns
Gather Intelligence On:
- Company's historical severance formula (weeks per year of service)
- Whether severance is negotiable or take-it-or-leave-it
- Benefits continuation terms (COBRA subsidy duration)
- Outplacement services offered
- Stock vesting treatment in past layoffs
- Bonus proration policies
- Equipment (laptop) retention policies
Research Sources:
- Glassdoor reviews mentioning layoff experience
- Blind app discussions of severance packages
- Reddit threads (r/[company], r/layoffs)
- Former colleague network (discreetly)
- LinkedIn posts from recently departed employees
Search Queries:
- "[Company] severance package weeks"
- "[Company] layoff experience Glassdoor"
- "site:teamblind.com [Company] severance"
- "[Company] layoffs [year] severance"
5.2 Industry Severance Benchmarks
Standard Severance Formulas:
- Tech industry: 2-4 weeks per year of service (often generous)
- Finance: 2 weeks per year of service (variable)
- Consulting: 2-4 weeks per year of service
- Manufacturing: 1-2 weeks per year of service
- Retail: Often minimal (1 week per year or less)
- Startups: Variable (may have no policy)
Additional Components to Research:
- COBRA continuation (company-paid months)
- Outplacement services ($2K-10K value)
- Accelerated vesting of equity
- Bonus proration
- Garden leave provisions
- Non-compete buyout options
5.3 Negotiation Positioning
Leverage Points for Severance Negotiation:
- Tenure and institutional knowledge
- Client relationships at risk
- Transition complexity
- Protected class considerations
- Claims you might have (discrimination, retaliation)
- Non-compete/NDA modifications
- Reference letter guarantees
- Departure narrative control
What's Typically Negotiable:
- Severance weeks (additional 25-100%)
- COBRA duration
- Outplacement services upgrade
- Laptop/equipment retention
- Reference letter language
- Departure announcement wording
- Non-disparagement scope
- Non-compete modifications
- Consulting arrangement during transition
Phase 6: Proactive Preparation Checklist (--prepare mode focus)
6.1 Resume and Profile Preparation
Immediate Actions:
6.2 Network Activation Strategy
Reconnection Campaign:
Engagement Tactics:
Critical Warning:
- DON'T signal desperation or imminent job search
- DO frame as "staying connected" and "exploring what's out there"
- DON'T badmouth current employer
- DO express interest in learning about their company
6.3 Reference Preparation
Secure References Now:
Reference Messaging:
- "I'm always keeping my network warm and wanted to reconnect"
- "Would you be comfortable being a reference if I explore opportunities?"
- "What would you highlight about our work together?"
6.4 Financial Preparation
Emergency Fund Assessment:
Benefit Preservation:
Financial Buffers:
6.5 Legal and Contract Review
Know Your Agreements:
Personal Property:
6.6 Job Search Infrastructure
Set Up Search Systems:
Interview Readiness:
Phase 7: Jump vs. Stay Analysis
7.1 Proactive Departure Considerations
Pros of Leaving Before Layoff:
- Control the narrative entirely
- Leave on your terms
- No "laid off" on record
- May find better opportunity
- Preserve mental health
- Negotiate from position of strength
Cons of Leaving Before Layoff:
- No severance package
- May forfeit unvested equity
- Could be wrong about layoff risk
- Miss bonus/variable comp
- Health insurance gap potential
- Unemployment benefits complicated
7.2 Waiting for Layoff Considerations
Pros of Waiting:
- Severance package (potentially substantial)
- Extended health coverage
- Outplacement services
- Unemployment eligibility clearer
- Continued income while searching
- May not be affected at all
Cons of Waiting:
- First wave often less favorable terms
- Stress and uncertainty
- Harder to interview while anxious
- Potential reputation concerns (if public layoff)
- Less time for job search preparation
- Competing with other laid-off employees
7.3 Decision Framework
Stay and Wait If:
- Company health indicators still positive
- Personal vulnerability score < 40
- Severance would be significant (tenure 5+ years)
- Job market is strong in your field
- Financial runway sufficient
- Mental health manageable
Leave Proactively If:
- Multiple red flag categories are high
- Personal vulnerability score > 60
- You have an attractive opportunity
- Severance would be minimal anyway
- Current role is damaging career trajectory
- Mental health suffering significantly
7.4 Market Conditions Assessment
Research Current Job Market:
- Hiring velocity in your field
- Time-to-hire for similar roles
- Salary trends (increasing or pressure)
- Remote work availability
- Skills in demand vs. your skills
Market Timing Considerations:
- Strong market = more flexibility
- Weak market = may want severance cushion
- Seasonal hiring patterns (Q1 often strongest)
- Industry-specific cycles
Phase 8: If Layoff is Announced
8.1 Immediate Steps
Day of Notification:
Information to Obtain:
- Exact severance offer details
- Benefits continuation terms
- Unemployment filing guidance
- Return of property procedures
- Reference policy
- Non-compete/NDA status
8.2 Negotiation Opportunities
What to Negotiate:
- Additional severance weeks
- Extended COBRA subsidy
- Outplacement services upgrade
- Reference letter content
- Departure announcement wording
- Accelerated vesting
- Bonus proration
- Laptop retention
- Non-compete waiver or modification
Negotiation Approach:
- Express appreciation for the package offer
- Ask if there's flexibility on specific items
- Cite tenure and contributions
- Reference transition assistance value
- Be professional, not threatening (unless you have claims)
- Consider attorney for significant packages
8.3 Benefits Continuation
Health Insurance:
- COBRA continues coverage (employer plan) but expensive (102% of total premium)
- ACA marketplace may be cheaper
- Special enrollment period triggered by job loss
- Coverage can be retroactive if needed
401k and Retirement:
- Can usually leave in employer plan
- Can roll to IRA (often best)
- DON'T cash out (taxes + penalties)
- Check for outstanding loans
Stock and Equity:
- Understand exercise windows (ISOs often 90 days)
- Calculate cost to exercise vs. potential value
- Consider tax implications
- Unvested shares typically forfeited
8.4 Unemployment Filing
When to File:
- File the first week you're unemployed or underemployed
- Don't wait for severance to end (varies by state)
- Online filing usually fastest
Documentation Needed:
- Separation letter/documentation
- Last pay stubs
- ID and Social Security
- Work history (last 18 months)
Severance and Unemployment:
- Some states offset unemployment by severance
- Some states don't count lump sum payments
- Continuation of pay may delay benefits
- Research your specific state rules
8.5 Reference Securing
Before You Leave:
Reference Script Request:
- "What would you say if called for a reference?"
- "Is there anything I should prepare you to address?"
- "Would you be comfortable confirming specific achievements?"
8.6 Networking Pivot
Announce Strategically:
- Update LinkedIn (consider timing)
- Enable "Open to Work" (recruiters only option)
- Reach out to network personally before public post
- Control the narrative (professional, forward-looking)
- Thank colleagues and express availability
Phase 9: Integration with Other Commands
9.1 Related Slash Commands
For Proactive Preparation:
/buildresume <job-posting>: Create targeted resume from career history/assessjob <job-posting>: Evaluate fit with potential opportunities/searchjobs <query>: Search for opportunities matching your profile/osint <company>: Deep intelligence on target companies
If Situation Escalates:
/severance-review: Analyze severance package and negotiation strategy/unemployment-prep: Prepare for unemployment filing process/reference-shield: Develop reference management strategy/code-red: If turns into PIP or termination threat
For Interview Preparation:
/briefing <assessment> <job>: Create study guide for interviews/interviewprep <resume> <job>: Generate practice interview questions
9.2 Career Inventory Leverage
Use ResumeSourceFolder Assets:
- Review Experience/ files for achievement documentation
- Check CareerHighlights/ for certifications and skills to highlight
- Reference Technology/ for technical capability inventory
- Consult Preferences/Vision.md to guide target opportunity search
Phase 10: Output Deliverables
10.1 Layoff Intelligence Report
Save comprehensive analysis to: {config.directories.company_intelligence}/{Company}/layoff_intel.md
Report Structure:
company: [Company Name]
generated_by: /layoff-intel
generated_on: [ISO8601 timestamp]
mode: [assess|prepare|warn-signs]
output_type: layoff_intelligence_report
status: final
version: 1.0
company_risk_level: [Low|Moderate|High|Critical]
personal_vulnerability_score: [0-100]
recommended_action: [Monitor|Prepare|Accelerate|Exit]
# Layoff Intelligence Report: [Company Name]
**Report Date:** [Date]
**Analysis Mode:** [Mode]
**Confidentiality:** Personal Strategic Planning
## Executive Summary
### Risk Assessment Overview
- **Company Health:** [Assessment with key indicators]
- **Industry Context:** [Headwinds/tailwinds summary]
- **Personal Vulnerability Score:** [X/100]
- **Recommended Action:** [Clear recommendation]
### Critical Findings
1. [Most significant finding]
2. [Second key finding]
3. [Third key finding]
## Company Health Assessment
### Financial Indicators
[Summary of financial research findings]
### Organizational Change Signals
[Summary of leadership/strategic changes]
### Industry Context
[Summary of industry headwinds/tailwinds]
### Employee Sentiment Intelligence
[Summary of Glassdoor/Blind/LinkedIn signals]
## Warning Signs Evaluation
### Active Warning Signs Detected
[List of observed warning signs with severity]
### Warning Sign Severity Score
| Category | Signals Detected | Severity |
|----------|------------------|----------|
| Financial | X | [Color] |
| Operational | X | [Color] |
| People | X | [Color] |
| Communication | X | [Color] |
| Physical/Logistical | X | [Color] |
**Combined Risk Level:** [Assessment]
## Personal Vulnerability Analysis
### Role Criticality: [Score/5]
[Analysis of role's strategic importance]
### Performance Context: [Score/5]
[Analysis of performance positioning]
### Compensation Vulnerability: [Score/5]
[Analysis of cost exposure]
### Skills Alignment: [Score/5]
[Analysis of strategic fit]
### Relationship/Visibility: [Score/5]
[Analysis of advocacy likelihood]
**Overall Vulnerability Score:** [X/100]
**Interpretation:** [Guidance based on score]
## WARN Act Considerations
[Applicable WARN analysis for company size and location]
## Severance Intelligence
[Company-specific severance research findings]
## Proactive Preparation Checklist
### Immediate (This Week)
- [ ] [Priority action 1]
- [ ] [Priority action 2]
- [ ] [Priority action 3]
### Short-Term (Next 2 Weeks)
- [ ] [Action 1]
- [ ] [Action 2]
- [ ] [Action 3]
### Ongoing (Next 30 Days)
- [ ] [Action 1]
- [ ] [Action 2]
- [ ] [Action 3]
## Jump vs. Stay Analysis
### Current Recommendation: [Stay and Prepare | Actively Search | Accelerate Exit]
**Key Decision Factors:**
1. [Factor 1]
2. [Factor 2]
3. [Factor 3]
**If Waiting:** [Guidance on what to monitor]
**If Leaving:** [Guidance on approach]
## Action Timeline
| Timeframe | Action | Priority |
|-----------|--------|----------|
| Immediate | [Action] | [High/Med/Low] |
| This Week | [Action] | [High/Med/Low] |
| Next 2 Weeks | [Action] | [High/Med/Low] |
| Next Month | [Action] | [High/Med/Low] |
## Intelligence Sources
### High Reliability
- [Sources consulted]
### Medium Reliability
- [Sources consulted]
### Gaps Requiring Further Research
- [Areas needing more information]
## Appendix: Research Findings Detail
[Detailed notes from web research]
Execution Flow
For --assess Mode (Default):
- Gather company name from arguments or ask user
- Conduct comprehensive web research (Phase 1)
- Present warning signs checklist and gather user observations (Phase 2)
- Conduct structured interview for personal vulnerability (Phase 3)
- Analyze WARN Act applicability (Phase 4)
- Research severance intelligence (Phase 5)
- Generate preparation recommendations (Phase 6)
- Provide jump vs. stay analysis (Phase 7)
- Save comprehensive report
For --prepare Mode:
- Focus on Phase 6 (Proactive Preparation Checklist)
- Generate detailed action plan with timelines
- Provide template messages for network activation
- Create financial preparation worksheet
- Save preparation-focused report
For --warn-signs Mode:
- Focus on Phase 2 (Warning Signs Analysis)
- Provide comprehensive checklist for user evaluation
- Score and interpret warning signs
- Generate focused warning assessment report
Tone Guidelines
Throughout this process, maintain:
- Empathetic but realistic: Acknowledge anxiety while providing practical guidance
- Proactive not alarmist: Focus on preparation, not panic
- Strategic: Help user think systematically about positioning
- Confidential: Remind about discretion in preparation activities
- Empowering: Focus on what user CAN control
- Balanced: Present both staying and leaving as valid options
Session Start
Begin by:
- Reading mode from arguments (
--assess, --prepare, or --warn-signs)
- Extracting company name from
--company=X or asking user
- Delivering the disclaimers
- Proceeding with appropriate phase based on mode
Now executing layoff intelligence assessment...
