pitcher-analytics

name	pitcher-analytics
description	Use when the task involves evaluating a college baseball pitcher or pitching staff — including pitch-mix analysis, sequencing strategy, matchup scouting, platoon splits, and role recommendations (starter vs. reliever vs. closer).

Pitcher Analytics

Use this skill when the task requires a thorough pitching evaluation beyond ERA. The goal is to give coaches, analysts, and content teams a precise and actionable read on how a pitcher is performing, why, and what adjustments to expect or recommend.

Working Model

Before evaluating any pitcher, establish:

• Role: Weekend starter, midweek starter, multi-inning reliever, closer, or high-leverage bridge arm?
• Arsenal: What pitches does he throw? What are the usage rates? Does he have a true out pitch?
• Sample: How many innings? How many appearances? Weekend or midweek context?
• Opponent quality: DI average, conference slate, or top-25 heavy schedule?

Role and sample matter as much as the metrics themselves. A 12-start weekend arm and a 20-inning reliever require different analytical frames.

Pitch-Mix Analysis

When pitch data is available (Trackman, Hawkeye, Yakkertech, or manually scouted):

Pitch Classification

• Fastball family: Four-seam, two-seam/sinker, cutter
• Breaking ball family: Curveball (12-6, slurve), slider (hard, gyro)
• Offspeed family: Changeup, splitter, circle change
• Specialty: Screwball, knuckleball (flag these — rare at college level)

Usage Rate Guidance

A healthy starter arsenal typically looks like:

Pitch Type	Typical Usage Range
Primary fastball	40–60%
Secondary fastball or cutter	0–20%
Primary breaking ball	15–30%
Offspeed (change/splitter)	10–25%

A pitcher over-relying on one pitch (>70% usage) is either elite with that pitch or limiting himself — determine which from outcome data.

Pitch Value Metrics (when available)

• Whiff% per pitch: Swings and misses / total swings on that pitch type
• Put-away%: K rate when pitcher is ahead in count (0-2, 1-2)
• Chase%: O-Swing% — swings on pitches outside the zone
• Zone%: Percentage of pitches in the strike zone

Elite put-away pitch: > 35% whiff rate on the pitch in two-strike counts.

Sequencing Principles

Even without pitch-tracking data, sequencing can be evaluated from game logs and observation:

1. Fastball command first: A pitcher who cannot locate the fastball to both sides of the plate has no sequence — everything telegraphs.
2. Secondary in early counts: Elite pitchers use breaking balls in 1-0 and 2-0 counts to steal called strikes; average pitchers default to fastballs.
3. Change the eye level: Pairing a high four-seam with a low changeup or curve creates the most cognitive dissonance for hitters.
4. Left/right splits: Evaluate breaking ball and changeup effectiveness separately vs. LHH and RHH.

When sequence data is limited: read the BABIP vs. FIP gap. A large positive gap (ERA >> FIP) suggests batted-ball variance is punishing an otherwise solid sequence plan. A large negative gap (ERA << FIP) may indicate sequencing masking mediocre stuff.

Role Recommendations

Use these thresholds to recommend starter vs. reliever roles:

Metric	Starter Profile	Reliever Profile
IP/start	5.0+	N/A
Pitches/start	80+	< 50 (multi-inning)
Arsenal depth	3+ pitches	2 pitches acceptable
BB/9 tolerance	< 3.5	< 4.5
Velocity (avg FB)	89+ mph	90+ preferred
Platoon split	Manageable	Can be hidden

A two-pitch pitcher with elite stuff but a 4.5 BB/9 is likely a high-leverage late-inning arm, not a Friday starter.

Bullpen Evaluation Framework

For evaluating a pitching staff as a unit:

1. Inherited runner strand rate (LOB%): Above 72% = good bullpen management. Below 65% = issues.
2. Opener usage: Note when a program uses openers to match up with dangerous top-of-order left-handed hitters.
3. Closer profile: Should have at least one elite secondary pitch (whiff > 30%), K/9 > 10, BB/9 < 3.
4. Depth count: How many arms can give a clean inning? Flag if the program is 2-3 deep vs. 5-6 deep.

Platoon Splits

Standard splits to report:

Split	Metric	Threshold to flag
vs. LHH	wOBA allowed	> .360 is vulnerability
vs. RHH	wOBA allowed	> .360 is vulnerability
RISP	BA allowed	> .280 is a clutch concern
2-out	OBP allowed	> .380 is a sequencing concern

Weekend Series Pitcher Preview Format

When generating a series pitcher preview:

1. Starter name, class, role (e.g., "RHP, Jr., Friday starter")
2. Season line: ERA / FIP / IP / K/9 / BB/9 / WHIP
3. Arsenal summary: Top 2–3 pitches, usage, and best pitch
4. Key tendency: One sentence on what he does well and what hitters can exploit
5. Matchup note: How does his profile match against this specific opponent's lineup tendencies?

Keep each pitcher card to 6–8 lines. Do not pad with generic commentary.

Hard Rules

• Never lead with ERA alone — always pair with FIP or WHIP.
• Never recommend a role change without citing at least two supporting metrics.
• Never present pitch-mix analysis without sample size in appearances or batters faced.
• Always flag when data is manually scouted (subjective) vs. tracked (objective).
• Do not compare a college pitcher's raw numbers to MLB benchmarks without adjusting the frame.
• When evaluating a Texas pitcher: note Disch-Falk Field's hitter-friendly environment in the ERA read.