fowtdn-figure-out-what-to-do-next

name	fowtdn - Figure Out What To Do Next
description	When you've been working through data or a problem and need to determine the single most valuable next action — assesses progress, identifies what changed, and picks the move that advances you most.
output	{"format":"prose"}

FOWTDN - Figure Out What To Do Next

Input: $ARGUMENTS

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Core Principles

1. "Next" means you've already started. This skill assumes prior work exists. If you're at the very beginning with raw data and no direction, use /fowtd first. This skill picks up mid-stream.

2. What changed matters more than what exists. The right next action depends on what's DIFFERENT since the last action — new information, resolved questions, shifted priorities, or surfaced problems. Start with the delta.

3. Momentum is real and valuable. If something is working, the default should be to continue it. Switching tracks has a cost. Only recommend a direction change if there's a clear reason.

4. Diminishing returns are the main enemy. The most common failure is continuing to do what you were doing past the point where it's producing value. Check for this explicitly.

5. One action, not a revised plan. The user wants to know what to do RIGHT NOW. Not a new roadmap. One move.

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Phase 1: Progress Check

Where are you now vs. where you started?

[N1] ORIGINAL_GOAL: [what the user was trying to accomplish]
[N2] WORK_DONE: [what has been completed so far]
[N3] CURRENT_STATE: [what the user has/knows NOW that they didn't before]
[N4] PROGRESS_LEVEL: [early | mid | late | stuck | lost]

Progress Classification

Level	Signals	Implication
Early	Just started, first pass done, initial triage complete	Next action should build on initial findings
Mid	Core work underway, some outputs produced, some gaps remaining	Next action should close the most important remaining gap
Late	Most work done, polishing, validating, or finalizing	Next action should be validation or completion
Stuck	Progress stalled, repeated attempts, circular work	Next action should break the loop — try a different approach
Lost	Goal unclear, direction confused, too many threads	Next action should be reorientation — /fowtd or /iagca

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Phase 2: Delta Assessment

What's changed since the last action?

[N5] NEW_INFORMATION: [what you learned or received since last action]
[N6] RESOLVED_QUESTIONS: [uncertainties that are now settled]
[N7] NEW_QUESTIONS: [uncertainties that surfaced]
[N8] SHIFTED_PRIORITIES: [anything that's more or less important than before]
[N9] SURPRISES: [anything unexpected — positive or negative]

Delta Impact

[N10] DELTA_IMPACT: [confirms direction | suggests adjustment | demands pivot]

Impact	Meaning	Response
Confirms	New info supports current direction	Continue, pick the natural next step
Adjusts	New info suggests a modification, not a change	Adjust and continue
Demands pivot	New info invalidates current approach	Stop current track, reassess

If DEMANDS PIVOT:

[N11] PIVOT_REASON: [what specifically invalidated the current approach]
[N12] PIVOT_DIRECTION: [what the new direction should be]

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Phase 3: Remaining Work Scan

What's left to do?

[N13] REMAINING_ITEMS:
  - [item] — VALUE: [high | medium | low] — EFFORT: [quick | moderate | heavy]
  - [item] — VALUE: [value] — EFFORT: [effort]
  - [item] — VALUE: [value] — EFFORT: [effort]

Value/Effort Matrix

	Quick	Moderate	Heavy
High value	DO NEXT	DO SOON	PLAN CAREFULLY
Medium value	DO NEXT	MAYBE	PROBABLY NOT
Low value	ONLY IF FREE	SKIP	SKIP

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Phase 4: Next Action Selection

[N14] RECOMMENDED_NEXT: [one specific action]
[N15] WHY_THIS_NEXT: [why this action over the other remaining items]
[N16] WHAT_IT_PRODUCES: [concrete output or result]
[N17] DIMINISHING_RETURNS_CHECK: [is continuing the current track still the highest-value use of effort?]

Selection Rules

• If stuck: don't do more of the same. Try a different angle, tool, or approach.
• If late stage: the next action should be finishing, validating, or shipping — not starting something new.
• If new information surfaced: address it before continuing the old plan.
• If priorities shifted: re-rank remaining work before picking.
• If everything remaining is low-value: the next action might be "stop — you're done enough."

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Phase 5: Output

FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO NEXT
==========================

STARTED WITH: [original goal]
YOU'VE DONE: [brief summary of progress]
YOU'RE AT: [progress level]

WHAT CHANGED:
  [most important delta — new info, resolved question, or surprise]

REMAINING WORK: [count of items, with high-value count]
DIMINISHING RETURNS? [yes/no — is continued effort still high-value?]

→ DO THIS NEXT: [one specific action]
  WHY: [one sentence — why this over alternatives]
  PRODUCES: [what you'll have after doing it]
  SKILL: → INVOKE: /skill-id $ARGUMENTS

AFTER THAT:
  IF_GOOD: [likely next step if this works]
  IF_STUCK: [what to try if this doesn't produce results]
  IF_DONE: [how to know you can stop]

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Failure Modes

Failure	Signal	Fix
Continuing past diminishing returns	Recommending more of the same when value is declining	Explicitly check: is this still the highest-value use of effort?
Ignoring the delta	Recommending the "planned" next step when new info changes things	Phase 2 must be done before Phase 4 — new info can change everything
Restarting instead of continuing	Sending user back to /fowtd when they have momentum	Only reorient if genuinely LOST, not just slightly uncertain
Too many next steps	"Do A, then B, then C"	ONE action. Route to /fonss if they need a sequence
Not knowing when to stop	Never outputs "you're done"	Check remaining work — if all low-value, recommend stopping
Forward-only bias	Never recommends revisiting or backtracking	Sometimes the best next step is to redo or reconsider a prior step

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Depth Scaling

Depth	Progress Check	Delta Analysis	Remaining Scan	Alternative Actions
1x	Level only	Most important change	Top 3 items	1 action
2x	Level + evidence	Full delta	All items ranked	2-3 actions, pick best
4x	Full + trajectory	Delta + impact analysis	All items with value/effort	4-5 actions, scored
8x	Full + pattern check	Delta + second-order effects	Comprehensive with dependencies	Full action comparison

Default: 2x. These are floors.

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Pre-Completion Checklist

• Progress level assessed (not assumed)
• Delta identified — what's new since last action
• If delta demands pivot: pivot direction specified
• Remaining work scanned and ranked
• Diminishing returns explicitly checked
• ONE next action selected (not a sequence)
• Action is concrete and specific
• Recovery path specified (IF_STUCK)
• Completion condition specified (IF_DONE — how to know when to stop)
• Backtracking considered as valid option

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Integration

• Use from: user is mid-process and needs direction on what to do next
• Differs from /fowtd: fowtd starts from raw data with no direction; fowtdn picks up mid-stream
• Differs from /next: next is a general next-step router; fowtdn is specifically for data/work-in-progress
• Differs from /wtdn: wtdn is simpler — situation/goal/gap/move; fowtdn adds delta analysis and diminishing returns
• Differs from /fonss: fonss builds a multi-step chain; fowtdn picks ONE next action
• Routes to: whatever skill the next action requires
• Falls back to: /fowtd if user is actually lost and needs full reorientation