pbtc-pre-baked-thesis-check

name	pbtc - Pre-Baked Thesis Check
description	Detect when reasoning is working backwards from a predetermined conclusion. Surfaces the signs that the 'analysis' is actually a case built to support a thesis that was chosen before the evidence was examined.
output	{"format":"prose"}

Pre-Baked Thesis Check

Input: $ARGUMENTS

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Interpretations

Before executing, identify which interpretation matches the user's input:

Interpretation 1 — Check my own reasoning: The user suspects they may have already decided their conclusion and wants to verify whether their analysis is genuine or reverse-engineered from a predetermined answer. Interpretation 2 — Check someone else's reasoning: The user is reading an argument, proposal, paper, or pitch and suspects the author decided the conclusion first and built the case backwards. Interpretation 3 — Check a document or plan: The user has a specific piece of writing (report, strategy doc, recommendation) and wants it audited for signs of conclusion-first reasoning.

If ambiguous, ask: "I can help with checking your own reasoning for a pre-baked conclusion, auditing someone else's argument, or scanning a document — which fits?" If clear from context, proceed with the matching interpretation.

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Purpose

A pre-baked thesis is a conclusion that was chosen before the analysis began. The "reasoning" that follows isn't discovering truth — it's building a case. This is different from lying: the person often genuinely believes they reasoned their way to the conclusion. The tell is structural — the argument has fingerprints of reverse engineering even when the author doesn't know they did it.

Why this matters:

• Pre-baked theses survive scrutiny longer than they should because they come wrapped in evidence
• The person holding one feels more confident, not less, because they've "done the research"
• Organizations make expensive commitments based on analyses that were never actually open-ended
• Detecting the pattern early saves the cost of building on a rigged foundation

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Recursive Passes

Default: 1x (single pass). Parse pass count from $ARGUMENTS if specified (e.g., "/pbtc 3x [input]").

The Nx modifier controls how many times the check runs recursively on its own output. This catches the meta-failure: the check itself can have a pre-baked thesis about whether the input is pre-baked.

Passes	What happens
1x	Run the check once on the input. Standard.
2x	Run the check on the input → then run the check again on your Pass 1 output. Did your own analysis have a pre-baked conclusion about whether the thesis was pre-baked?
3x	2x + run the check on your Pass 2 output. Did your self-correction itself have a pre-baked thesis?
4x+	Continue the chain. Each pass checks the previous pass's output for pre-bake signals.

How recursive passes work

Pass 1: Run Steps 1-7 on the user's input. Produce the verdict.

Pass 2: Treat your entire Pass 1 output as the new input. Run Steps 1-7 again, asking: "Did my Pass 1 analysis itself show signs of a pre-baked thesis?" Common findings:

• The check assumed SUSPECT or PRE-BAKED before examining signals (confirmation bias about bias)
• The check was too generous because it didn't want to accuse (performed neutrality)
• The check pattern-matched on surface features without engaging the actual argument

Pass 3+: Same pattern. Each pass treats the previous pass's full output as its input.

Reporting recursive passes

PASS 1 VERDICT: [verdict] on the original input
PASS 2 VERDICT: [verdict] on Pass 1's analysis
  - [what Pass 2 found about Pass 1's reasoning]
  - [adjustments to Pass 1's verdict, if any]
PASS 3 VERDICT: [verdict] on Pass 2's analysis (if 3x+)
  - [what Pass 3 found]

FINAL VERDICT: [the verdict that survived all passes]
CONFIDENCE: [higher if verdicts converged; lower if they kept flipping]

If verdicts oscillate (Pass 1 says CLEAN, Pass 2 says PRE-BAKED, Pass 3 says CLEAN), report the oscillation — it means the signal is genuinely ambiguous.

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The Structural Fingerprints

Pre-baked theses leave characteristic marks. Not every mark proves the thesis was pre-baked, but the more marks present, the higher the probability.

Signal Category 1: Evidence Selection Asymmetry

Signal	What to look for	Severity
Cherry-picked evidence	Only favorable data cited; unfavorable data absent or footnoted	High
Asymmetric rigor	Supporting evidence accepted at face value; opposing evidence held to impossibly high standards	High
Missing null case	No consideration of what the evidence would look like if the thesis were wrong	High
Survivorship framing	Only successful examples cited; failures in the same category ignored	Medium
Date-selected evidence	Time windows chosen to make the data fit; different windows would show different results	Medium

Signal Category 2: Argumentative Structure

Signal	What to look for	Severity
Conclusion appears early	The thesis is stated with confidence in paragraph 1; the rest is justification	High
No pivot point	The argument never genuinely entertains being wrong — no "however" that could have changed the conclusion	High
Motte-and-bailey	Bold claim made; when challenged, retreats to a weaker claim that no one disputes, then re-advances the bold one	High
Straw alternatives	Competing theses are presented in their weakest form	Medium
Forced linearity	Evidence presented as a logical chain, but the links only work if you already accept the conclusion	Medium
Rhetorical hedging as armor	"Of course there are exceptions, but..." used to dismiss counterevidence rather than engage it	Low

Signal Category 3: Emotional and Social Tells

Signal	What to look for	Severity
Identity fusion	The thesis is entangled with the person's identity, reputation, or prior public commitments	High
Sunk cost defense	Significant time, money, or status already invested in the conclusion being right	High
Audience capture	The conclusion matches exactly what the intended audience wants to hear	Medium
Disproportionate certainty	Confidence level far exceeds what the evidence warrants	Medium
Defensive reaction	Questions about the thesis trigger irritation rather than curiosity	Medium

Signal Category 4: Process Tells

Signal	What to look for	Severity
Conclusion predates research	Timeline shows the conclusion was announced or committed to before the analysis was done	Critical
Methodology fitted to outcome	Analytical method chosen because it produces the desired result; other valid methods would not	Critical
Missing methodology	No description of how evidence was gathered or how conclusions were reached	High
Post-hoc hypothesis	Presented as "we hypothesized X and found X" but there's no record of the hypothesis being stated before the data was collected	High
Unfalsifiable framing	The thesis is stated in a way that no possible evidence could disprove it	High

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The Check Procedure

Step 1: Extract the Thesis

State the core thesis being checked. What is the conclusion that might be pre-baked?

THESIS UNDER CHECK: [state it clearly]
SOURCE: [own reasoning / someone else's argument / document]
CONTEXT: [what situation produced this thesis]

If the thesis is bundled (multiple claims), unbundle and check the most load-bearing one first.

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Step 2: Run the Signal Scan

Go through each signal category and check for presence:

SIGNAL SCAN RESULTS:

EVIDENCE SELECTION:
[ ] Cherry-picked evidence: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Asymmetric rigor: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Missing null case: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Survivorship framing: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Date-selected evidence: [present/absent] — [evidence]

ARGUMENTATIVE STRUCTURE:
[ ] Conclusion appears early: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] No pivot point: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Motte-and-bailey: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Straw alternatives: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Forced linearity: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Rhetorical hedging as armor: [present/absent] — [evidence]

EMOTIONAL/SOCIAL:
[ ] Identity fusion: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Sunk cost defense: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Audience capture: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Disproportionate certainty: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Defensive reaction: [present/absent] — [evidence]

PROCESS:
[ ] Conclusion predates research: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Methodology fitted to outcome: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Missing methodology: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Post-hoc hypothesis: [present/absent] — [evidence]
[ ] Unfalsifiable framing: [present/absent] — [evidence]

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Step 3: The Reversal Test

The most powerful single test for a pre-baked thesis.

Ask: If the evidence had pointed the other way, would the person have actually changed their conclusion?

Run this concretely:

REVERSAL TEST:

1. What evidence was used to support the thesis?
   [list key evidence]

2. What would the OPPOSITE evidence look like?
   [describe specifically]

3. If that opposite evidence existed, would the conclusion change?
   - YES, clearly → Thesis may be genuine (passes reversal test)
   - NO, they'd find other reasons → Pre-baked (fails reversal test)
   - UNCLEAR → Note and continue

4. Has opposite evidence actually appeared and been dismissed?
   - YES → Strong pre-bake signal
   - NO → Inconclusive

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Step 4: Generate Counter-Theses

If the thesis is genuine, there should be plausible alternatives that were considered and rejected on evidence. Generate them now:

COUNTER-THESES:

1. [Alternative conclusion that the same evidence could support]
   - Was this considered? [yes/no/unclear]
   - How was it addressed? [dismissed/engaged/ignored]

2. [Another alternative]
   - Was this considered? [yes/no/unclear]
   - How was it addressed? [dismissed/engaged/ignored]

3. [The null hypothesis — what if there's nothing here]
   - Was this considered? [yes/no/unclear]
   - How was it addressed? [dismissed/engaged/ignored]

COUNTER-THESIS TREATMENT:
- All dismissed without engagement → Strong pre-bake signal
- Some engaged seriously → Weaker signal
- Genuine engagement with best alternatives → Low signal

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Step 5: The Timeline Test

Reconstruct when the conclusion was reached relative to when the evidence was gathered:

TIMELINE:

When was the conclusion first stated or committed to?
  [date/stage or "unknown"]

When was the evidence gathered or analysis done?
  [date/stage or "unknown"]

ORDER:
- Conclusion AFTER analysis → Normal reasoning
- Conclusion BEFORE analysis → Pre-baked
- Conclusion SIMULTANEOUS with analysis → Suspect (common in motivated reasoning)
- Cannot determine → Note; check for other signals

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Step 6: Assess and Verdict

PRE-BAKE ASSESSMENT:

Signals present: [count] of [total checked]
Critical signals present: [list any]
Reversal test: [passed / failed / unclear]
Counter-thesis treatment: [engaged / dismissed / ignored]
Timeline: [normal / pre-baked / suspect / unknown]

VERDICT: [one of the following]

CLEAN — No significant pre-bake signals. The reasoning appears to have been
genuinely open-ended. The thesis may still be wrong, but it wasn't rigged.

SUSPECT — Multiple signals present but no critical ones. The thesis may have
been influenced by prior beliefs but the analysis contains genuine engagement
with alternatives. Recommend: stress-test the weakest links.

PRE-BAKED — Critical signals present and/or reversal test failed. The
conclusion was likely chosen before the analysis. The evidence was selected
to fit. Recommend: restart the analysis with genuine openness to alternatives,
or acknowledge the thesis is a position rather than a finding.

RIGGED — Process tells confirm the conclusion predated the research AND the
methodology was fitted to produce the desired outcome. This is not analysis —
it is advocacy wearing the costume of analysis. Recommend: discard and redo,
or reframe honestly as advocacy.

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Step 7: What To Do About It

Based on the verdict:

If CLEAN: No action needed on the reasoning process. If you want to strengthen the thesis further: → INVOKE: /araw $ARGUMENTS

If SUSPECT: Identify the 2-3 weakest points and stress-test them:

• What evidence would you need to see to abandon this thesis?
• Have you looked for that evidence as hard as you looked for supporting evidence?
• → INVOKE: /aex $ARGUMENTS to surface hidden assumptions

If PRE-BAKED: The thesis needs to be re-examined from scratch:

• Separate what you KNOW from what you WANT to be true
• → INVOKE: /sdc $ARGUMENTS for self-deception check
• → INVOKE: /se $ARGUMENTS to enumerate genuine alternatives
• Re-run the original analysis with a commitment to follow the evidence

If RIGGED: The analysis should be treated as advocacy, not research:

• If it's your own work: acknowledge the conclusion was chosen, not discovered. This doesn't make it wrong — but it means the "analysis" doesn't provide independent evidence for it
• If it's someone else's work: treat it as a persuasion document, not an analytical one. Evaluate the thesis on its merits, ignoring the rigged evidence
• → INVOKE: /claim $ARGUMENTS to test the thesis properly

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Quick Check (Abbreviated)

For fast screening:

QUICK PRE-BAKE CHECK: [thesis]

Three questions:
1. Could any evidence have changed this conclusion? [yes/no]
2. Were the best counter-arguments engaged or dismissed? [engaged/dismissed]
3. Did the conclusion exist before the analysis? [before/after/unknown]

Score: [0-3 "no/dismissed/before" answers]
- 0: Likely clean
- 1: Worth a closer look
- 2-3: Likely pre-baked — run full check

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Common Pre-Bake Patterns

The Consultant's Pre-Bake

Client hints at desired conclusion → consultant "discovers" it through "analysis" → client gets validation they paid for. Tell: Recommendation matches the brief too perfectly.

The Confirmation Research

Person googles to confirm what they already believe → finds supporting evidence (the internet has evidence for everything) → feels validated. Tell: Only one search direction was tried.

The Strategic Plan Pre-Bake

Leadership decides direction → commissions analysis → analysis confirms direction → presented as "data-driven." Tell: No scenario in the analysis leads to a different recommendation.

The Expert's Pre-Bake

Expert has a framework → new situation arises → framework is applied → conclusion matches framework. Not always wrong, but the expert rarely concludes "my framework doesn't apply here." Tell: The framework has never produced a surprising conclusion.

The Sunk Cost Pre-Bake

Significant investment already made → analysis of whether to continue → analysis says continue. Tell: The option to cut losses was never seriously modeled.

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Quality Checklist

Before completing:

• Thesis clearly extracted and stated
• All four signal categories scanned
• Reversal test applied
• Counter-theses generated and their treatment assessed
• Timeline reconstructed where possible
• Verdict assigned with evidence
• Actionable next step provided based on verdict

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Integration

• Use from: /claim (check if a "supported" claim was pre-baked), /evaluate (check if an assessment was conclusion-first), /decide (check if the "analysis" already had a winner)
• Routes to: /araw (test a clean thesis), /sdc (deeper self-deception check), /aex (surface hidden assumptions), /se (enumerate alternatives), /claim (test thesis properly if rigged)
• Differs from: /sdc (sdc checks for self-deception broadly; pbtc specifically checks if a conclusion predated its evidence), /ht (ht tests hypotheses; pbtc checks whether the hypothesis-testing was genuine), /aex (aex surfaces assumptions; pbtc checks if the conclusion was assumed from the start)
• Complementary: /ecal (epistemic calibration — was confidence warranted?), /sid (situation identification — are you seeing what's actually there?)