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Evaluate opportunities by assessing Potential BEFORE Probability, then check Passion and Prowess. Prevents risk aversion from killing high-upside ideas.
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SOC 職業分類に基づく
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Use when designing AI agents or chatbots, when raw model outputs feel like a black box, or when building natural language interfaces that need structure and trust
Use when building AI-powered products or agents, when raw model intelligence isn't enough to solve user problems, or when designing the architecture for agentic workflows
View yourself as an entity with infinite dimensions rather than a single good/bad identity. Strengths and weaknesses are often the same trait in different contexts. Use during performance reviews or when receiving tough feedback.
Review your calendar, color-code activities by energy impact (Green/Red), and systematically delegate draining tasks to maximize time in your Zone of Genius.
| name | 4P Opportunity Framework |
| description | Evaluate opportunities by assessing Potential BEFORE Probability, then check Passion and Prowess. Prevents risk aversion from killing high-upside ideas. |
"If you apply a filter that says, 'Oh, I only have a one in 10 chance to pull this off... not going to do that.' Well, if it's a one in 10 chance at 10 billion, it might be worth it." — Dharmesh Shah
A quantitative approach to weighing opportunities that forces a separation between outcome size and success likelihood, preventing risk aversion from stifling innovation.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 1. POTENTIAL (0-10) │
│ "If this works, how big could it be?" │
│ → Assess BEFORE looking at risk │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 2. PROBABILITY │
│ "What's the likelihood of success?" │
│ → Expected Value = Potential × Probability │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 3. PASSION / PROXIMITY │
│ "Do we care enough? Are we close to the pain?" │
│ → Passion sustains through hard times │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 4. PROWESS │
│ "Do we have unfair advantages?" │
│ → Assets, code, market access, relationships │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
STEP 1: Rate Potential First (0-10)
└── 10 = Trillion-dollar outcome
└── 7-9 = Billion-scale opportunity
└── 4-6 = Hundred-million scale
└── 1-3 = Modest outcome
STEP 2: Assess Probability
└── Don't let low probability kill high potential
└── Calculate: EV = Potential × Probability
STEP 3: Check Passion/Proximity
└── Would you work on this for 10 years?
└── Do you deeply understand the customer pain?
STEP 4: Evaluate Prowess
└── What unfair advantages do you have?
└── Why are YOU uniquely positioned to win?
❌ Assessing Probability before Potential (kills big ideas early)
❌ Using low probability to filter out high-EV opportunities
❌ Pursuing high-potential ideas with no passion or proximity
Dharmesh used this thinking to justify HubSpot's "Zig" strategy of building an "all-in-one" platform (low probability, high potential) rather than a safer niche tool.
Source: Dharmesh Shah, Lenny's Podcast