pre-mortem-kill-criteria

name	pre-mortem-kill-criteria
description	Use before launching products or signing contracts, when needing to combat sunk cost fallacy, or when standard pre-mortems fail to change behavior

Pre-Mortems with Kill Criteria

Overview

An enhancement to the standard pre-mortem that moves beyond simply imagining failure to establishing pre-committed actions based on specific negative signals.

Core principle: Thinking about failure isn't enough; you must commit to actions BEFORE you see the signals.

The Process

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  1. MENTAL TIME TRAVEL                                          │
│     Fast forward: Imagine the project has FAILED                │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  2. SIGNAL IDENTIFICATION                                       │
│     "What early clues indicated the failure?"                   │
│     List specific, observable signals                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  3. DEFINE KILL CRITERIA                                        │
│     Convert clues into measurable thresholds                    │
│     Example: "CPA > $50" or "Customer won't demo"               │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  4. PRE-COMMITMENT                                              │
│     Establish rule: "If [Criteria] occurs, we [Kill/Pivot]"     │
│     Write it down and share with team                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  5. ACTIVE MONITORING                                           │
│     Scan for criteria during execution                          │
│     Act immediately when triggered                              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Principles

Principle	Description
Pre-commit	Lock in actions before rationalization kicks in
Signal focus	Identify correlates of failure, not just the failure itself
Prospective waste	Think about future waste, not sunk cost
Automatic triggers	When criteria hit, action is mandatory

Common Mistakes

• Doing a pre-mortem but not changing the plan
• Identifying risks without setting a specific stop trigger
• Rationalizing signals when they appear ("it's different this time")

---

Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital, WSOP Champion) via Lenny's Podcast