b3-analysis

## B3 Quality Checklist Methodology from Logan's tier list (YouTube: @investimentosemevidencia). Criteria 1, 2, 3 are **ELIMINATORY** — fail any = automatic AVOID regardless of other factors. | # | Criterion | Eliminatory | How to evaluate | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | **Consistent growing profits (escadinha)** | 🔴 YES | Stair-step pattern in income statement, no recurring losses. #1 criterion. | | 2 | **Liquid ON shares (ticker ending in 3)** | 🔴 YES | PN-only or Unit-only with no ON liquidity = disqualified. Verify volume in OHLCV data. | | 3 | **No recent IPO** | 🔴 YES | Minimum 5+ years of profit history on B3. | | 4 | **Novo Mercado listing** | No | Highest B3 governance level | | 5 | **Tag Along 100%** | No | Minority protection — < 100% = penalize | | 6 | **Controlled debt** | No | Prefer net cash or D/EBITDA < 2x | | 7 | **Expected return > CDI** | No | Selic ~14,75% a.a. — justify via earnings yield, DCF, or DY | ### Score interpretation (after passing eliminatory filters) - 6–7: Strong Buy / Elite - 5: Buy - 4: Hold / Monitor - 0–3: Avoid ### Tier classification - **Elite**: All 7 ✅, proven stair-step growth, large/growing TAM - **Bom**: Passes eliminatory, 5–6/7, minor flags - **OK**: Passes eliminatory, 4/7, one notable weakness - **Mé**: Passes eliminatory barely, erratic profits or structural limits - **Você é Louco**: Fails an eliminatory criterion - **Oi**: Persistent losses, cotação trending to zero ## Technical Indicator Reference When interpreting `fetch_stock.py` output: | Indicator | Bullish Signal | Bearish Signal | |---|---|---| | Close > SMA 200 | Uptrend confirmed | Below = downtrend | | SMA 50 crosses SMA 200 up | Golden cross | Death cross | | RSI 14 < 30 | Oversold — possible entry | RSI > 70 = overbought | | MACD hist positive & rising | Momentum building | Negative & falling | | Price near Bollinger Lower | Potential bounce | | | ADX > 25 | Strong trend — confirm direction | ADX < 20 = ranging market | ## Macro Impact by Sector | Sector | High Selic Impact | |---|---| | Banking (ITUB, BBAS) | Mixed — spread benefits, but higher default risk | | Utilities (EQTL, SAPR) | Negative — regulated returns compressed vs risk-free | | Healthcare (RADL, FLRY) | Neutral-negative — capex financing more expensive | | Retail (LREN, RENT) | Negative — consumer credit more expensive | | Exporters (VALE, SUZB) | Positive — stronger USD boosts BRL revenue | | Technology (TOTS) | Negative — high growth DCF heavily discounted | | Insurance (PSSA, BBSE) | Positive — float income rises with higher rates | ## Red Flags - Ticker final 4/11 only, no ON liquidity — bad faith (wants capital without losing control) - Controlling shareholder holds only ON, forces investors into PN — misalignment - Tag Along < 100% - Heavy state interference (pricing, dividend policy risk) - D/EBITDA > 3x - Highly cyclical commodity sector without multi-decade consistent track record ## Output Rules - Always respond in **Portuguese (Brazil)** - **Every report must begin with the disclaimer:** `⚠️ **Aviso:** Este relatório é gerado por agentes de IA para fins exclusivamente **educacionais e de estudo pessoal**. Não constitui recomendação de investimento, consultoria financeira ou análise profissional. Renda variável envolve risco de perda do capital investido.` - Always compare expected equity return vs CDI explicitly - State clearly when data is unavailable or scripts return errors - Never recommend leverage or derivatives — long-only equity analysis only - Minimum position size for portfolio allocation: R$ 500 ## Universo B3 (Screening) Usado pelo `/b3:screen` como universo padrão de triagem. Apenas ações ON (final 3) ou com ON líquida conhecida. Atualizar conforme necessário. ``` Bancos: ITUB3, BBAS3, BBDC3, SANB3, BRSR3 Seguros: PSSA3, BBSE3, IRBR3, ODPV3 Varejo: LREN3, ARZZ3, VULC3, PNVL3, VIVA3, GRND3 Saúde: FLRY3, HAPV3, RDOR3, DASA3, HYPE3 Tech/Software: TOTS3, INTB3 Energia: EQTL3, EGIE3, TAEE3, CPFE3, NEOE3 Saneamento: SAPR3, SBSP3, CSMG3 Industrial: WEGE3, ROMI3, FRAS3, LEVE3 Farmácias: RADL3 Petróleo: PETR3, PRIO3, RECV3 Mineração: VALE3, GOAU3, GGBR3 Agro: SLCE3, SMTO3, AGRO3 Logística: RENT3, RAIL3, EMBR3 Construção: DIRR3, CYRE3 Celulose: SUZB3, KLBN3, RANI3 Alimentos: ABEV3, JBSS3, MRFG3, MDIA3 Educação: YDUQ3 ``` > Este universo pode ser substituído por qualquer lista de tickers via `/b3:screen TICKER1 TICKER2 ...` ## Gotchas - **Criterion 2 is often misread**: check the actual ticker suffix AND verify daily volume > R$ 10M. A ticker ending in 3 with low liquidity still fails criterion 2. - **yfinance P/L can be misleading for Brazilian stocks**: cross-check against the income statement returned by `fetch_stock.py`. Trailing PE from `info` uses US GAAP adjustments. - **CDI is monthly in BCB data**: `fetch_macro.py` converts it to annualized, but always double-check the annualization logic when citing CDI % a.a. - **Google News RSS has no pagination**: if the lookback window is long and articles are sparse, `fetch_news.py` may return fewer results than expected. This is a data gap, not an error. - **D/EBITDA from yfinance uses `debtToEquity`** (debt/equity ratio), not debt/EBITDA. To get D/EBITDA, divide `totalDebt` by `ebitda` from the fundamentals output. - **Score ≤ 2 = exclude from portfolio regardless of macro environment**. No macro tailwind overrides a failed eliminatory criterion.