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Use when testing a hypothesis, debugging, validating a fix, designing experiments or test suites, or when checks keep passing. Applies Popper's falsification and Wason's 2-4-6 task — a test that can't fail isn't a test, and confirming instances prove little.
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SOC 職業分類に基づく
Use when tempted to say "I'm being objective", when attributing others' views to bias while trusting your own introspection, or after learning about a bias and concluding it doesn't apply to you. Applies Pronin, Lin & Ross (2002) — the bias blind spot and the introspection illusion.
Use when stating confidence ("I'm sure", "definitely", "99%"), giving confidence intervals, making probabilistic claims, or reviewing a track record of predictions. Applies overconfidence calibration research (Lichtenstein & Fischhoff; Alpert & Raiffa) — subjective certainty systematically exceeds accuracy.
Use before deleting code, removing a check, simplifying a process, dropping a config flag, or removing anything that "serves no purpose" — especially in unfamiliar or legacy systems. Applies Chesterton's Fence (G.K. Chesterton, 1929): don't remove it until you know why it's there.
Use when evidence seems to confirm an existing belief, when research keeps agreeing with the hypothesis, when interpreting ambiguous data, or when a first explanation feels satisfying. Applies Lord, Lepper & Preston (1984) — the one debiasing instruction shown to work: consider the opposite.
Use when writing docs, error messages, onboarding, tutorials, API designs, UX copy, or teaching — or when something you built seems self-explanatory. Applies the curse of knowledge (Camerer, Loewenstein & Weber 1989; Newton's tappers-and-listeners 1990): expertise makes you unable to simulate not-knowing.
Use when operating in an unfamiliar domain, when something "looks right" but hasn't been verified, when confidence is high without external checks, or when evaluating one's own competence at a task. Applies Kruger & Dunning (1999) — the skills needed to perform are the skills needed to judge performance.
| name | blind-falsification |
| description | Use when testing a hypothesis, debugging, validating a fix, designing experiments or test suites, or when checks keep passing. Applies Popper's falsification and Wason's 2-4-6 task — a test that can't fail isn't a test, and confirming instances prove little. |
Karl Popper (Logik der Forschung, 1934): a claim earns credibility only from surviving attempts to refute it — confirming instances are cheap and unbounded. Wason's 2-4-6 experiment (1960) showed the default human strategy: given a rule to discover, people propose only sequences their hypothesis says are valid, receive "yes" after "yes", and announce the wrong rule with confidence. They never propose a sequence their hypothesis says should FAIL.
The blind spot: a green test you designed to pass tells you almost nothing. The information is in the test designed to fail.
| Situation | Falsification move |
|---|---|
| "Fix verified — it works now" | Revert fix → test must fail → unrevert |
| Hypothesis about the root cause | Predict something it forbids; check that |
| All tests green | Add the test that SHOULD fail (wrong input, boundary) |
| "Can't reproduce" | Define what observation would count as reproduced |
