| name | china-earnings-preview |
| description | Pre-earnings analysis for A-share stocks. Builds scenario frameworks (actual vs consensus, beat/miss cases), identifies key metrics to watch, and prepares positioning notes before Chinese companies report quarterly results. Use instead of the original earnings-preview skill for A-share coverage. Triggers on "A股财报前瞻", "季报前瞻", "业绩前瞻", "earnings preview", "what to watch for [company] earnings", or "pre-earnings setup". |
china-earnings-preview
Purpose
Build A股季报/年报前瞻分析, preparing for company earnings releases with scenario frameworks and key metrics to watch.
Data Sources
Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
get_quote(ticker) → Current valuation, PE/PB
get_historical_data(ticker) → Trading context, 52-wk range
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual") → Historical revenue/EPS trends
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}") → Pre-earnings context
get_industry_stocks(industry="...") → Peer trading multiples
Consensus Estimates Sources
| Source | Access | Notes |
|---|
| Wind 一致预期 | Institutional | Most comprehensive |
| Choice 一致预期 | Institutional | Alternative |
| 慧博投研 | Web / API | Good coverage |
| 同花顺 iFinD | Web / API | Retail-friendly UI |
| 东方财富 | Web | Free, some coverage |
| 巨潮 业绩预告 | Regulatory | Mandatory disclosures |
If consensus unavailable, derive from:
- Historical growth rates
- Management guidance from prior calls
- Industry benchmarks
Secondary Sources
- 公司公告 (earnings preview notices 业绩预告)
- 行业研究报告 (sector reports)
- 卖方研报 (broker research summaries)
Workflow
Step 1: Establish Baseline
Historical performance (last 4-8 quarters):
| Quarter | Revenue (亿) | YoY | Net Income (亿) | YoY | EPS (元) | Net Margin |
|---|
| Q1 2024 | | | | | | |
| Q2 2024 | | | | | | |
| Q3 2024 | | | | | | |
| Q4 2023 | | | | | | |
Identify trends:
- Accelerating or decelerating growth?
- Margin expansion or compression?
- Seasonal patterns?
- One-time items to normalize?
Step 2: Gather Consensus Estimates
Consensus table:
| Metric | Q1 2024 Estimate | Range (Low-High) | # Analysts |
|---|
| Revenue (亿) | | | |
| YoY Growth | | | |
| Net Income (亿) | | | |
| EPS (元) | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | |
| Net Margin | | | |
Beat probability assessment:
- Strong beat (>+10%): Company has history of under-promising
- Moderate beat (+5% to +10%): Consensus well-established
- In-line (-5% to +5%): Typical range
- Miss risk (<-5%): Macro headwinds, order delays
Step 3: Identify Key Metrics to Watch
Company-specific KPIs:
For each company, identify 3-5 metrics that will drive the report:
| Metric | Why It Matters | Watch Threshold | Risk if Missed |
|---|
| e.g., 白酒批价 | Price indicator for channel health | >950元/瓶 | Demand softness |
| e.g., 动力电池装机量 | Volume indicator | >XX GWh | Market share loss |
| e.g., 云业务收入增速 | Growth engine health | >30% | Cloud slowdown |
Sector-wide KPIs (for sector previews):
| Sector | Key Metrics |
|---|
| 白酒 | 批价、库存、回款、动销 |
| 半导体 | 产能利用率、出货量、ASP、库存天数 |
| 新能源汽车 | 交付量、单车收入、毛利率、电池成本 |
| 医药 | 创新药收入、研发费用、集采影响 |
| 银行 | NIM、不良率、拨备覆盖率 |
| 券商 | 经纪/投行/资管收入、股基交易量 |
| 光伏 | 硅料/组件价格、排产、海外出货 |
| 房地产 | 销售额、拿地、融资成本 |
Step 4: Build Scenario Framework
Three-scenario model:
BEAR CASE (超预期悲观)
Revenue: -X% vs consensus
Net Income: -Y% vs consensus
Key factor: [specific risk]
Likely catalysts: 业绩预告大幅下调, 行业负面政策
BASE CASE (符合预期)
Revenue: ±Z% vs consensus
Net Income: ±W% vs consensus
Key factor: [steady state]
Likely outcome: 符合预期, 股价波动±5%
BULL CASE (超预期乐观)
Revenue: +A% vs consensus
Net Income: +B% vs consensus
Key factor: [positive surprise driver]
Likely catalysts: 新品放量, 成本下降超预期
Step 5: Position Analysis
What does the market expect?
- Recent stock price performance into earnings
- Implied move from options (if A-share options available)
- Sentiment from 北向资金 trends
- Broker recommendations distribution
Position sizing considerations:
- High expectations (high PE) → asymmetric risk to downside
- Low expectations (depressed stock) → upside potential on beat
- Earnings as catalyst: upcoming product launch, policy change
Step 6: Pre-Earnings Positioning Note
Standard structure:
[公司名称]（[代码]）[季/年报] 前瞻：[主题/焦点]
一、业绩预期
- 关键指标一致预期一览
- 预测区间
二、情景分析
- 乐观/基准/悲观情景
三、关注要点
- 最重要的 3-5 个指标
- 预期 vs 实际的关键差异点
四、估值与预期
- 当前估值水平
- 市场情绪指标
- 北向资金动向
五、情景判断与策略
- 不同情景下的股价反应
- 可能的交易策略
六、风险提示
- 关键下行风险
Step 7: Post-Earnings Follow-up
After actual results are released:
- Compare actual vs preview scenarios
- Update the earnings-analysis model
- Revise forward estimates
- Note any material guidance changes
China-Specific Pre-Earnings Considerations
Earnings Calendar (A-share)
| Report Type | Deadline | Typical Release Time |
|---|
| Q1 / Q3季报 | 1 month after quarter-end | Before market open or after close |
| Semi-annual report (中报) | 2 months after H1 | Before market open |
| Annual report (年报) | 4 months after year-end | Typically Jan-Apr |
Release pattern:
- Most companies release before market open (8:00-9:00 AM)
- Some release after market close (after 15:00)
- 创业板/科创板 may have more flexible schedules
业绩预告 (Earnings Preview Notice)
- Mandatory if actual vs prior period variance >50%
- Published typically 2-4 weeks before formal report
- Format: 预增 (increase), 预减 (decrease), 扭亏 (turn to profit), 首亏 (first loss), 续亏 (continued loss)
- Provides directional guidance before formal report
Consensus Reliability
Caveats for Chinese consensus:
- Fewer analysts covering A-shares vs US large caps
- Estimates may be stale (update frequency lower)
- Institutional vs retail analyst coverage varies significantly
- Broker research sometimes biased ( conflicted interests )
- Cross-reference multiple sources when possible
Policy Risk
- Regulatory changes can materially impact earnings overnight
- 行业政策 (industry policy) shifts common in:
- 医药 (pharmaceuticals — 集采)
- 教育 (education — 双减)
- 互联网 (internet — antitrust)
- 新能源 (renewables — subsidy changes)
- Factor policy risk into scenario analysis
Quality Checks
Before delivering preview:
Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.
ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailableifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShareakshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
