| name | poly-tradebot |
| description | Automated news analysis pipeline that fetches CNBC world news, classifies articles by topic (geopolitics vs macroeconomics), and invokes specialized skills (geopolitics-expert or the-fed-agent) to produce structured trading analysis. Use when you need systematic news-to-trading-signal workflow for Iran war, US economy, Fed policy, and market impact assessment. |
Permission Setup Review
python scripts/_prepare_workspace.py is an optional setup helper for the Poly Tradebot skill. It may apply broad filesystem permissions for compatibility. Show the target paths and permission mode, explain the risk, and prefer a narrower mode when shared write access is not needed.
Poly Tradebot
Overview
Poly-tradebot automates the news-to-trading-analysis workflow: fetches CNBC world news, filters by relevant tags (us, iran, war, market, the fed), classifies each article as geopolitics or macroeconomics, invokes the appropriate specialized skill (geopolitics-expert or the-fed-agent), discovers related Polymarket markets, and produces a unified trading analysis table with market data and expert recommendations.
Workflow
1. Fetch CNBC World News
poly-tradebot fetch
Fetches articles from https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world using web_fetch tool. Extracts at least 3 articles matching tags: us, iran, war, market, the fed.
Article Selection Criteria:
- Headline or content contains at least one tag keyword
- Published within last 24-48 hours (freshness)
- Substantive content (not brief mentions)
2. Classify Article Topic
For each fetched article, classify as:
| Topic | Classification Triggers | Skill to Invoke |
|---|
| Geopolitics | Iran, war, military, conflict, sanctions, regime, IRGC, drone, missile, Strait of Hormuz, UAE, Middle East tensions | geopolitics-expert |
| Macroeconomics | Fed, Treasury yields, interest rates, inflation, central bank, CPI, employment, GDP, monetary policy, oil price (economic impact) | the-fed-agent |
3. Invoke Specialized Skill
For Geopolitics Articles:
geopolitics-expert <article_url>
Produces 5-section output:
- Conclusion
- Economic/Commodity Impact
- Commodity Trading Odds
- War Duration Categorization
- Termination Scenarios
For Macroeconomics Articles:
the-fed-agent <article_url>
Produces 4-section output:
- Conclusion
- Economic/Commodity Impact
- Commodity Trading Odds
- What's Next Can Be Happened? (policy path scenarios)
4. Discover Polymarket Markets
For each analyzed article, search Polymarket for related prediction markets:
web_search query="<topic> Polymarket market" site:polymarket.com
web_fetch url=<polymarket_market_url> extractMode=markdown
Extract market metadata:
- Market Title
- Market URL
- Resolve Date
- Current Odds (Yes/No probabilities)
- Trading Volume (24h + total volume)
Search Strategy:
- Use article keywords (e.g., "Iran war", "Fed rate hike", "Oil prices")
- Filter to active/open markets
- Volume Filter: Only include markets with total volume > $1,000,000
- Odds Filter: Only include markets with Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian edge)
- Minimum Markets: Discover at least 10 qualifying markets across all articles
- Prioritize high-liquidity markets for reliable odds
5. Output Per News Article
Each article produces a standalone analysis file saved to memory/:
- Geopolitics:
memory/geopolitics-YYYY-MM-DD-cnbc-<topic>.md
- Macroeconomics:
memory/macro-YYYY-MM-DD-cnbc-<topic>.md
Output Format: Follows exact skill output format (geopolitics: 5 sections, macro: 4 sections) PLUS a unified trading table.
6. Unified Trading Table Output
After all articles are analyzed and Polymarket markets discovered, produce a summary table:
| Market Title | Market URL | Resolve Date | Market Odds | Volume | Recommendation | Reason |
|---|
| | | <Yes%> | $ | YES or NO | |
Column Definitions:
- Market Title: Polymarket market name
- Market URL: Direct link to the Polymarket market
- Resolve Date: When the market resolves
- Market Odds: Current Polymarket probability (Yes%)
- Volume: Total trading volume (must be > $1,000,000)
- Recommendation: Bold YES or NO based on expert analysis
- Reason: Concise reasoning from geopolitics-expert or the-fed-agent (e.g., "75% forever war probability", "65% single 25bp cut only")
Output Requirements:
- Minimum Markets: At least 10 markets in the table
- Volume Filter: All markets must have total trading volume > $1,000,000
- Odds Filter: All markets must have Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian opportunities)
Recommendation Logic:
- YES: Expert analysis supports the market outcome (expert probability > 60%)
- NO: Expert analysis contradicts the market outcome (expert probability < 40%)
- Include the key probability and rationale from the expert skill output
Usage Examples
Example 1: Full Pipeline Run
poly-tradebot
Fetches 3+ CNBC articles, classifies each, invokes appropriate skills, discovers Polymarket markets, outputs unified trading table (Yes/No recommendations with expert reasoning).
Example 2: Re-run Workflow
poly-tradebot fetch
Re-fetches fresh articles from CNBC world page, re-runs classification, analysis, and market discovery pipeline.
Example 3: Analyze Specific URL
poly-tradebot analyze <url>
Classifies and analyzes a single article URL, discovers related Polymarket markets, outputs Yes/No recommendation with expert reasoning.
Example 4: Output Table Only
poly-tradebot table
Regenerates the unified trading table from existing memory analyses without re-fetching articles.
Output Summary
After pipeline completion, produces ONLY the Unified Trading Table:
| Market Title | Market URL | Resolve Date | Market Odds | Volume | Recommendation | Reason |
|---|
| | | <Yes%> | $ | YES or NO | |
Format Rules:
- Table only — no headers, no commentary, no additional sections
- Minimum Markets: At least 10 markets in the table
- Volume Filter: All markets must have total trading volume > $1,000,000
- Odds Filter: All markets must have Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian opportunities)
- Recommendation: Bold YES or NO based on expert analysis probability
- Reason: Concise expert rationale (e.g., "75% forever war probability", "65% single 25bp cut only")
- Market Odds: Current Polymarket Yes% probability
- Volume: Display total trading volume (e.g., "$2.4M")
- Saved to
memory/poly-tradebot-table-YYYY-MM-DD.md
Skill Dependencies
geopolitics-expert — Required for geopolitics articlesthe-fed-agent — Required for macroeconomics articlesweb_fetch — Built-in tool for article retrievalweb_search — Built-in tool for Polymarket market discovery (optional)
Resources
references/
classification_rules.md — Topic classification heuristicsoutput_templates.md — Format templates per skill type (geopolitics: 5 sections, macro: 4 sections)
scripts/
fetch_cnbc.py — Article fetching and parsing utilityclassify_topic.py — Geopolitics vs macroeconomics classifier
Skill Version: 3.1
Created: 2026-03-17
Updated: 2026-03-18 (v3.1: odds filter <70% for contrarian edge; v3.0: minimum 10 markets, volume filter >$1M, added Volume column)
Author: poly-tradebot skill creator
