| name | ai-stock-picking |
| description | Use when the user asks for AI stock picking, 选股, 找赛道, 风口行业, 产业链拆解, 股票池筛选, 价值因子, 质量因子, 最具潜力的股票, 五步法选股, 三高公司, high-growth high-margin moat companies, stock shortlist, or a sector-first company-picking workflow that combines macro, policy, earnings, fundamentals, capital flow, technicals, and risk validation. |
AI Stock Picking
Use AI as an intelligence analyst and validation assistant, not as an oracle. Run a sector-first pipeline: find where money and fundamentals may flow, map the value chain, screen companies, validate the thesis, then produce a risk-aware shortlist.
First Rule
Do not jump directly to tickers. Start with sector and industry-chain reasoning unless the user explicitly provides a stock or portfolio. For current market, policy, earnings, price, or news facts, verify with fresh sources before relying on them.
If the user asks for value factors, quality factors, promising domestic stocks, financial-base confirmation, 1-month capital flow, volume ratio, turnover, order imbalance, policy support, or risk avoidance, load references/five-factor-stock-selection.md and use it across screening, deep dive, and ranking.
Safety Boundary
This skill produces research support, not guaranteed investment advice. Always separate:
- facts: verified data and sources
- thesis: why a sector or company may matter
- validation: what data supports or rejects it
- uncertainty: missing data and contradiction
- action framing: observe, exclude, deep-dive, watchlist, or conditional trial
Never output a simple "buy list" without validation status, risk flags, and invalidation conditions.
Pipeline Router
Run the stages in order unless the user asks for a specific stage:
| Stage | Read first | Purpose |
|---|
| 1. Sector scan | workflows/macro-sector-scan/WORKFLOW.md | Find 6-12 month sectors from economic cycle, policy direction, and earnings growth |
| 2. Industry-chain map | workflows/industry-chain-map/WORKFLOW.md | Map upstream/midstream/downstream and identify profit pools |
| 3. Company screening | workflows/company-screening/WORKFLOW.md; also references/five-factor-stock-selection.md when value/quality/potential-stock language appears | Build a stock pool with quantitative and qualitative filters |
| 4. Fundamental deep dive | workflows/fundamental-deep-dive/WORKFLOW.md; also references/five-factor-stock-selection.md when the user asks to confirm the fundamental base | Validate ROE, cash flow, leverage, margins, and growth quality |
| 5. Technical assist | workflows/technical-assist/WORKFLOW.md | Use price-volume, trend, support/resistance, MACD/RSI as secondary evidence |
| 6. Thesis validation | workflows/thesis-validation/WORKFLOW.md | Reject fake narratives, concept chasing, and weak evidence |
| 7. Shortlist ranking | workflows/shortlist-ranking/WORKFLOW.md; use references/five-factor-stock-selection.md for final evidence checks when loaded earlier | Rank candidates and produce a conditional action shortlist |
Optional Specialist Workflows
Load these only when the user's request matches the need:
| Need | Read first | Also read |
|---|
| Three-lens decision review combining macro, supply-chain chokepoints, and execution timing | workflows/three-lens-decision/WORKFLOW.md | references/three-lens-framework.md |
| Five-factor potential-stock review using value, quality, financial base, 1-month capital behavior, growth/policy, and risk avoidance | workflows/company-screening/WORKFLOW.md | references/five-factor-stock-selection.md, references/screening-factors.md |
| Source-backed individual stock research, target price scenarios, stop-loss, and entry plan | workflows/source-backed-research/WORKFLOW.md | references/source-backed-research-checklist.md |
| Macro event or central-bank speech digest for market impact and expectation gaps | workflows/macro-event-digest/WORKFLOW.md | references/macro-event-framework.md |
Sub-Skill Routing
Use these existing skills as specialist modules:
| Need | Use |
|---|
| A-share market, hotspot, stock, holding, or recommendation workflow | a-share-stock-analysis |
| News-to-alpha, demand-chain impact, small-cap beneficiary discovery | serenity-alpha |
| Intrinsic 3-5 year growth versus market-implied growth | bayesian-intrinsic-growth-valuation |
| Trend and valuation health, DMA divergence, escape risk | gf-dma-health-index |
| Growth-stock valuation with TAM runway and quality adjustment | tam-adj-peg |
| Full source-backed company memo | buy-side-equity-research-memo |
Required Output Shape
For full-pipeline requests, use templates/stock-picking-final-report.md.
Minimum final sections:
- sector candidates and why
- industry-chain profit-pool map
- screened company pool
- five-factor validation summary when the request mentions value/quality, capital flow, policy support, or risk avoidance
- fundamental validation
- technical assist signals
- red flags and exclusions
- final shortlist with confidence, invalidation, and next checks
Stop Conditions
Stop or downgrade confidence when:
- current data is unavailable or stale
- the sector thesis depends only on slogans or unverified rumors
- a company has no earnings, orders, cash-flow, or margin evidence
- the stock is ST, under delisting risk, or has material unresolved governance risk
- technical strength contradicts fundamentals and cannot be explained
Source Discipline
This suite may learn from public repositories and articles, but agents must not copy third-party text or code unless licensing allows it and attribution is preserved. See ../../docs/THIRD_PARTY_SOURCES.md for source notes.
