starcraft-data-analysis

name	starcraft-data-analysis
description	Analyzes StarCraft II replay data, meta-game trends, build orders, and balance statistics using structured methodology and SC2-specific data sources. Trigger phrases: "analyze this replay", "SC2 build order", "matchup win rates", "balance analysis", "meta-game trends", "patch impact on", "parse replay file". Do NOT use for playing the game, writing bots/AI agents, general gaming discussion, or StarCraft lore/story questions — this skill is strictly data analysis.
license	Apache-2.0
compatibility	{"clients":["openai-codex","gemini-cli","opencode","github-copilot"]}
metadata	{"owner":"codex","domain":"starcraft-data-analysis","maturity":"draft","risk":"low","tags":["starcraft2","replay-analysis","build-order","meta-game","balance","esports-analytics"]}

Purpose

Perform structured analysis of StarCraft II data — replays, build orders, matchup statistics, balance trends, and meta-game shifts — using SC2-specific tools, data sources, and statistical methodology appropriate for competitive gaming analytics.

When to use this skill

• User wants to analyze one or more SC2 replay files (.SC2Replay) for build orders, timings, or decision points
• User asks about matchup win rates, map balance, or meta-game trends across a patch or time period
• User wants build order optimization, deviation analysis, or benchmark comparisons
• User needs patch impact assessment: how balance changes affected matchup dynamics
• User asks for unit composition analysis, resource trade efficiency, or cost-effectiveness comparisons
• A project involves building or improving SC2 replay parsing or analytics tools

Do not use this skill when

• The user wants to build a StarCraft II bot or AI agent — that is a software engineering task, not analysis
• The request is about StarCraft lore, campaign story, or universe worldbuilding — prefer worldbuilding-research
• The user wants general gaming advice not grounded in data ("how do I get better at SC2" without replays)
• The task is about a different game entirely, even other RTS games
• The user needs image/video analysis of gameplay footage — this skill works with structured data, not video

Operating procedure

Phase 1 — Scope and data identification

1. Clarify the analysis question:
   • Replay analysis: Single replay deep-dive, or batch analysis across many replays?
   • Meta-game analysis: Which matchup(s)? Which league/MMR range? Which patch/time period?
   • Build order analysis: Specific build comparison, or archetype detection across a set?
   • Balance analysis: Which units/changes? Pre-patch vs post-patch comparison?
2. Identify the data source and sample:
   • User-provided replays: .SC2Replay files to be parsed directly.
   • Aggregated statistics: Data from SC2ReplayStats, Aligulac, Spawning Tool, or Liquipedia.
   • Patch notes: Official Blizzard patch notes for the relevant game version.
3. Record the patch version(s) covered by the data. Never mix data from different balance patches without explicit notation.

Phase 2 — Replay file parsing (when applicable)

4. Parse .SC2Replay files using s2protocol (Blizzard's official Python library):
   • Extract header: map name, game version, game length, player names, races, result.
   • Extract tracker events: unit births, unit deaths, upgrades, resource collection rates.
   • Extract game events: player commands, camera movements (for APM/attention analysis).
5. Reconstruct the build order for each player:
   • Record each production event with its supply count and game-time timestamp (seconds).
   • Normalize timestamps to real-time seconds (Faster game speed: 1 game second ≈ 0.725 real seconds).
   • Identify the build archetype by matching the first 30 supply of production against known build order databases (Spawning Tool).
6. Extract key timing benchmarks:
   • Worker count at key intervals: 3:00, 5:00, 7:00 (real-time).
   • First expansion timing.
   • First tech structure timing (e.g., Cybernetics Core, Factory, Lair).
   • First army engagement timing and composition.
   • Supply block duration: Total seconds supply-blocked in the first 10 minutes.

Phase 3 — Build order analysis

7. Compare extracted build orders against benchmark timings for the archetype:
   • Source benchmarks from Spawning Tool's top-rated builds or professional replays at the relevant patch.
   • Calculate deviation from benchmark: seconds early/late for each key structure and unit.
   • Classify deviations: On time (±5s), Slightly late (6-15s), Significantly late (>15s), Early (suggests different build).
8. Identify optimization targets: the deviations with the highest impact on the build's effectiveness.
9. Detect build order losses: games where the outcome was largely determined by the build choice (e.g., blind counter, failed cheese).

Phase 4 — Meta-game analysis

10. For meta-game questions, aggregate data across the specified sample:
    • Matchup win rates: Calculate win rate with 95% confidence intervals using the Wilson score interval (appropriate for win/loss proportions).
    • Minimum sample size: Do not report win rates with fewer than 30 games in the sample. For meaningful conclusions, target n ≥ 100.
    • Stratify by skill bracket: Always separate data by league or MMR range. A build that dominates in Diamond may be irrelevant in GM. Standard brackets: Bronze-Gold, Platinum-Diamond, Master, Grandmaster, Professional.
    • Map-specific analysis: Report per-map win rates if the sample supports it. Note maps with known positional advantages.
11. Detect meta shifts by comparing archetype popularity and win rates across consecutive time periods or patches.

Phase 5 — Balance analysis

12. For balance questions, apply these analytical frameworks:
    • Unit cost-effectiveness: Mineral + gas cost vs average combat value (damage dealt before death) in standard engagements. Use resource-normalized comparisons.
    • Composition counters: Map out the rock-paper-scissors relationships between common army compositions. Note where micro skill can invert theoretical counters.
    • Resource trade efficiency: In engagements from replays, calculate resources lost by each side. A positive trade is meaningful only if it accounts for the replaceability of the units (mineral-heavy losses are more recoverable than gas-heavy losses).
    • Patch impact: Compare pre-patch and post-patch statistics for affected units. Use a minimum 2-week post-patch window before drawing conclusions (meta needs time to adapt).
13. Distinguish between statistical imbalance (the numbers show a significant skew) and perceived imbalance (players feel something is unfair but the data doesn't support it). Report both when relevant.

Phase 6 — Statistical methodology

14. Apply these statistical standards throughout:
    • Confidence intervals: Always report uncertainty. A 55% win rate with n=50 is very different from 55% with n=5000.
    • Wilson score interval for proportions (win rates), not the naive normal approximation.
    • Effect size matters: A statistically significant 51% win rate is not practically meaningful for balance discussion. Note the practical significance alongside statistical significance.
    • Elo/MMR adjustment: When comparing players of different skill levels, note whether the data controls for MMR. Raw win rates across all skill levels are misleading.
    • Multiple comparisons: When testing many matchup/map combinations, note the risk of false positives. Apply Bonferroni correction or note the unadjusted nature of the analysis.
    • Correlation ≠ causation: A build's win rate correlation with a map does not prove the map causes the advantage. Note confounding factors (player preferences, map pool timing).

Decision rules

• Always report patch version: Every statistic must be tagged with the game patch it comes from. Cross-patch comparisons must be explicitly flagged.
• Stratify by skill level or don't report: Aggregate win rates across all leagues are misleading because different strategies dominate at different skill levels. If stratification is not possible, state this limitation prominently.
• Sample size gates: n < 30 → do not report a win rate. n 30-99 → report with "preliminary" qualifier and wide confidence interval. n ≥ 100 → report normally. n ≥ 500 → high confidence.
• Recency of data matters: SC2 meta evolves within days of a patch. Data older than one patch is historical context, not current analysis. Label it clearly.
• Professional ≠ ladder: Professional tournament meta diverges significantly from ladder meta. Never generalize from one to the other without noting the context.
• Micro vs macro: When analyzing unit effectiveness, note whether the analysis assumes standard engagement patterns or optimal micro. A Blink Stalker army has very different effectiveness with and without active Blink micro.

Output requirements

Deliver all applicable sections (not all analyses require all sections):

1. Analysis Summary — One-paragraph executive summary of findings and key conclusions.
2. Data Scope — Patch version(s), date range, sample size, skill bracket(s), data source(s).
3. Build Order Report (if replay analysis) — Per-player build order table: Supply | Timestamp | Action | Benchmark | Deviation. Key timing benchmarks. Archetype classification.
4. Statistical Tables (if meta/balance analysis) — Win rates with confidence intervals, sample sizes, stratified by relevant dimensions. Resource trade tables if applicable.
5. Visualizations Description — Describe recommended charts/graphs: supply-over-time curves, win rate bar charts with error bars, resource trade scatter plots, army composition pie charts. Include the data needed to produce them.
6. Meta Trends — Archetype popularity shifts, emerging strategies, declining strategies, and the likely drivers of change.
7. Recommendations — Actionable conclusions: build order improvements with specific timing targets, matchup-specific strategy suggestions with supporting evidence, or balance assessment with confidence level.

Anti-patterns

• Small sample conclusions: Declaring a matchup "imbalanced" based on 20 games. Require statistical rigor and minimum sample sizes before making balance claims.
• Ignoring skill brackets: Reporting a 60% win rate for a strategy without noting it was measured in Gold league. Strategy effectiveness is highly skill-dependent.
• Patch-crossing without notation: Mixing data from before and after a balance patch without flagging the boundary. This invalidates most conclusions.
• Anecdote as evidence: "I saw a pro player lose to this build, so it must be OP" is not analysis. Require systematic data.
• Ignoring map context: Reporting strategy win rates without noting which maps the games were played on. Map geometry heavily influences strategy viability.
• Confusing correlation with causation: A race's win rate dropped after a patch that didn't change that race's units. The cause may be indirect (opponents got stronger) — don't attribute causation without mechanism.
• APM worship: High APM does not equal better play. Spam-clicking inflates APM without adding value. Focus on effective actions per minute and decision quality.
• Single-game analysis overgeneralization: Drawing broad meta conclusions from one replay or one tournament series. Single games illustrate; aggregates prove.

Data sources

Reference these when conducting analysis:

• s2protocol (github.com/Blizzard/s2protocol) — Official Blizzard replay parser for .SC2Replay files.
• Aligulac (aligulac.com) — Professional and semi-professional match results, Elo ratings, player statistics. Best for pro-level analysis.
• SC2ReplayStats (sc2replaystats.com) — Ladder replay aggregation, build order statistics, per-league breakdowns.
• Spawning Tool (spawningtool.com) — Build order database with timing benchmarks, annotated builds, archetype classification.
• Liquipedia (liquipedia.net/starcraft2) — Tournament results, player profiles, patch notes history, map pool information.
• Blizzard Patch Notes — Official balance change documentation for identifying patch boundaries.

Related skills

• spreadsheet-analysis — For advanced statistical modeling or visualization of SC2 datasets
• worldbuilding-research — For StarCraft lore and universe questions (not gameplay data)
• competitor-teardown — Analogous analytical methodology applied to business competitors instead of game opponents
• market-research — If analyzing the SC2 esports market or streaming ecosystem as a business

Failure handling

• If the user provides a replay file but no specific analysis question, perform a standard replay breakdown: build orders, key timings, engagement outcomes, and notable decision points.
• If the data source is unavailable or the API is down, state which source is inaccessible and what analysis is blocked. Proceed with available data and note the limitation.
• If the sample size is below the minimum threshold for the requested analysis, report this clearly and offer to proceed with appropriate caveats rather than refusing entirely.
• If the user asks about a patch version the agent has no data for, state the knowledge boundary and recommend checking the specific data sources listed above.
• If the analysis spans multiple patches, split the results by patch and present them separately with a comparison section noting what changed.