three-horizons-learning-transition-mapper

name	three-horizons-learning-transition-mapper
description	Map a scoped topic across three coexisting horizons — current system under strain (H1), preferred future (H3), and transition innovations sorted as H2+ or H2- — to understand change dynamics and identify responsible next actions.
disable-model-invocation	false
user-invocable	true
effort	high
skill_id	three-horizons-learning-transition-mapper
skill_name	Three Horizons Learning Transition Mapper
domain	original-frameworks
version	1.0
evidence_strength	emerging
evidence_sources	["Curry, A., & Hodgson, A. (2008). Seeing in multiple horizons: connecting futures to strategy. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(1), 1–20.","Sharpe, B., Fazey, I., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., & Lyon, A. (2016). Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 47.","Sharpe, B., & Hodgson, A. (2019). Anticipation in three horizons. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of Anticipation. Springer.","H3Uni Three Horizons tutorials and facilitation guides (CC BY-SA 4.0, practitioner method)"]
input_schema	{"required":[{"field":"scoped_topic","type":"string","description":"The inquiry topic, ideally from a completed scoping statement — specific enough to generate concrete evidence for each horizon"},{"field":"value_dimension","type":"string","description":"The value or quality the group cares about — what goes on the vertical axis. Examples: ecological health, student wellbeing, learning depth, belonging, fairness, community resilience"}],"optional":[{"field":"student_level","type":"string","description":"Year group or age range"},{"field":"existing_evidence","type":"string","description":"Data, observations, or student work already available about the current situation"},{"field":"h3_seeds","type":"string","description":"Pockets of the preferred future already visible somewhere — real examples, prototypes, or inspiring cases"},{"field":"prior_hexagon_map","type":"string","description":"Key clusters or insights from a prior hexagon mapping exercise, if available"}]}
output_schema	{"type":"object","fields":[{"field":"h1_map","type":"object","description":"Current system under strain: evidence of dysfunction, persistence factors, what H1 still provides"},{"field":"h3_map","type":"object","description":"Preferred future pattern: values, norms, relationships; pockets already visible"},{"field":"h2_map","type":"object","description":"Transition activity sorted as H2+ (grows toward H3) and H2- (extends H1 in new language)"},{"field":"transition_story","type":"string","description":"3–5 sentence narrative of what is declining, emerging, contested, and where action might help"},{"field":"h2_plus_opportunities","type":"array","description":"Specific H2+ innovations worth supporting or learning from"},{"field":"quality_gate_results","type":"object","description":"Results of structural quality checks on the three horizons map"},{"field":"next_step_options","type":"array","description":"Suggested follow-on skills based on map insights"}]}
chains_well_with	["scoping-for-transformative-learning-inquiry","hexagon-complexity-mapper","dilemma-navigation-for-education-design","systems-awareness-iceberg","agency-circles-for-systems-action","place-based-inquiry-anchor","regenerative-project-design-orchestrator"]
teacher_time	20 minutes
tags	["h3uni","three-horizons","futures-thinking","transition","h2-plus","h2-minus","original-framework","emerging-evidence","systems-change","programme-planning"]

Three Horizons Learning Transition Mapper

What This Skill Does

Guides students through a Three Horizons mapping exercise that helps them understand how a current system is changing, what kind of future they want to grow, and which innovations are genuinely moving toward that future. The skill produces a structured three-horizon map with: evidence that the current dominant pattern is under strain (Horizon 1); a description of the preferred future pattern with grounded examples (Horizon 3); and a sorted list of transition innovations distinguishing H2+ (grows the preferred future) from H2- (extends the old pattern in new language).

Three Horizons is not a timeline. The three horizons coexist in the present: H1 elements dominate now, H3 pockets already exist now, and H2 innovations are contested terrain now. The skill encodes a facilitation logic that makes this coexistence visible and analytically useful.

Evidence Space and Strength of Evidence

This skill encodes the H3Uni Three Horizons method, a practitioner framework for futures thinking and transformative change facilitation.

Component Evidence

• Curry & Hodgson (2008) multiple horizons (emerging): This foundational paper describes the Three Horizons framework as a tool for strategic futures thinking. It provides conceptual grounding for the H1/H2/H3 distinctions and the H2+/H2- classification. The paper is theoretical and practitioner-oriented, not a controlled study.
• Sharpe et al. (2016) pathways practice (emerging): This ecology and society paper describes Three Horizons as a participatory transformation pathway tool and documents its use in professional and community contexts. It provides the most systematic academic account of the method, including the H2+/H2- distinction and the facilitation sequence. The paper does not include randomised or comparative study designs.
• Sharpe & Hodgson (2019) anticipation framework (emerging): This chapter positions Three Horizons within the broader literature on anticipation and future consciousness, connecting it to cognitive and sociological accounts of how groups develop shared futures thinking.
• H3Uni Three Horizons tutorials and facilitation guides (practitioner framework): H3Uni's Resource Library includes step-by-step facilitation guides for Three Horizons mapping with adult groups in policy, ecology, and organisational contexts. These are practitioner resources, not peer-reviewed evaluations.

Synthesis Evidence

The classroom adaptation — including the facilitation sequence, student worksheet prompts, quality gates, and H2+/H2- distinction encoded in this skill — was developed for school-age students at REAL School Budapest by Gareth Manning, drawing on H3Uni's open facilitation guides and the academic papers above. This adaptation has not been independently evaluated. The core intellectual framework is H3Uni's; the classroom operationalisation is practitioner-synthesised.