earnings-revenue-guidance

name	earnings-revenue-guidance
description	Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from earnings call transcripts, including segment breakdown, constant currency adjustments, and M&A contributions.

Earnings Revenue Guidance

Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from earnings call transcripts with detailed breakdowns by segment, currency impact, and M&A contributions.

Prerequisites

Ensure Octagon MCP is configured. See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.

Workflow

Step 1: Extract Revenue Guidance

Use the Octagon MCP to extract revenue guidance:

Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from <TICKER>'s latest earnings call transcript.

Step 2: Targeted Revenue Analysis

Focus on specific aspects of revenue guidance:

# Total Revenue
Extract total revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s latest earnings call.

# Segment Revenue
Extract segment-level revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings transcript.

# Organic vs. M&A
Separate organic revenue guidance from M&A contribution in <TICKER>'s earnings call.

# Currency Impact
What is the FX impact on <TICKER>'s revenue guidance?

# Subscription Revenue
Extract recurring revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings call.

# Growth Rates
Extract revenue growth rate guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings transcript.

Expected Output

The skill returns structured revenue guidance including:

Component	Description
Revenue Range	Dollar guidance (low-high)
Growth Rate	Nominal YoY growth percentage
Constant Currency	FX-adjusted growth rate
Segment Breakdown	Revenue by business unit
M&A Contribution	Acquisition impact on growth
Source Citations	Transcript page references

Example Query

Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from CRM's latest earnings call transcript.

Example Response

Salesforce (CRM) provided the following revenue guidance and growth projections in its Q3 2026 earnings call transcript:

Revenue Guidance

Metric	Range	Growth Rate (Nominal)	Growth Rate (Constant Currency)
Total Revenue	$41.15B - $41.25B	9.00%	8.00%
Total Revenue (with Informatica)	$41.545B - $41.55B	9.00% - 10.00%	9.00%

Subscription & Support Revenue

• Anticipated growth: Slightly under 10.00% year-over-year in constant currency
• Informatica contribution: +0.80 percentage points to growth

Source: CRM_Q32026, Page: 6

Revenue Guidance Components

Total Revenue

Component	Description
Range Low	Conservative estimate
Range High	Optimistic estimate
Midpoint	Implied expectation
Growth Rate	YoY percentage change

Segment Revenue

Segment Type	Examples
Product Lines	Cloud, Hardware, Services
Business Units	Enterprise, SMB, Consumer
Revenue Type	Subscription, Perpetual, Services
Geography	Americas, EMEA, APAC

Growth Rate Types

Type	Description
Reported (Nominal)	As-reported in local currency
Constant Currency	FX-adjusted growth
Organic	Excluding M&A
Pro Forma	As if M&A included in prior period

Currency Impact Analysis

Understanding FX Effects

FX Scenario	Revenue Impact	Growth Rate
USD Strong	Lower reported	Reported < CC
USD Weak	Higher reported	Reported > CC
Neutral	No impact	Reported = CC

Calculating Currency Impact

Example:
- Reported Growth: 9.00%
- Constant Currency Growth: 8.00%
- FX Tailwind: 9.00% - 8.00% = +1.00pp

Interpretation: Currency added 1 percentage point to reported growth

M&A Contribution Analysis

Separating Organic from Inorganic

Component	Calculation
Total Growth	Reported YoY change
M&A Contribution	Acquired revenue / prior base
Organic Growth	Total Growth - M&A Contribution

Example Breakdown

Total Growth: 10.00%
M&A Contribution: +0.80pp (Informatica)
Organic Growth: 10.00% - 0.80% = 9.20%

Key Insight: Underlying business growing at 9.2%

Segment Guidance Framework

Segment Revenue Table

Segment	Guidance	Growth	Mix
Cloud	$25B	+15%	60%
Services	$10B	+5%	25%
Other	$6B	+2%	15%
Total	$41B	+10%	100%

Mix Shift Analysis

Trend	Implication
High-growth segment gaining share	Positive for overall growth
High-margin segment gaining share	Positive for profitability
Declining segment shrinking	Healthy portfolio management
All segments growing	Broad-based strength

Guidance Range Analysis

Range Width Interpretation

Range Width	Confidence Level
< 1% of midpoint	Very high confidence
1-2% of midpoint	High confidence
2-3% of midpoint	Moderate confidence
> 3% of midpoint	Low confidence, high variability

Midpoint Calculation

Example:
Range: $41.15B - $41.25B
Midpoint: ($41.15B + $41.25B) / 2 = $41.20B
Range Width: $41.25B - $41.15B = $0.10B
% of Midpoint: $0.10B / $41.20B = 0.24%

Interpretation: Very tight range, high confidence

Tracking Revenue Guidance

Quarter-over-Quarter Changes

Period	Guidance	Change	Signal
Q1 FY26	$40.5B	Initial	Baseline
Q2 FY26	$40.8B	+$0.3B	Raised
Q3 FY26	$41.2B	+$0.4B	Raised
Full Year	$165B		Annual

Guidance Revision Analysis

Revision	Interpretation
Raised	Positive momentum
Maintained	On track
Narrowed	Increased visibility
Lowered	Challenges
Widened	Decreased visibility

Use Cases

1. Model Updates: Feed revenue guidance into financial models
2. Consensus Comparison: Compare to Street estimates
3. Organic Growth Tracking: Separate core growth from M&A
4. FX Impact Analysis: Understand currency effects
5. Segment Trends: Track business unit performance
6. Beat/Miss Prediction: Anticipate earnings outcomes

Combining with Other Skills

Skill	Combined Analysis
analyst-estimates	Guidance vs. consensus
income-statement	Historical revenue trends
earnings-financial-guidance	Full guidance context
revenue-product-segmentation	Segment validation
stock-price-change	Guidance impact on price

Analysis Tips

1. Track Organic Growth: Strip out M&A and FX for true trends

2. Compare to Consensus: Is guidance above or below Street?

3. Watch Range Width: Narrow = confident, wide = uncertain

4. Note Revisions: Raising or lowering tells you direction

5. Segment Focus: Which segments driving growth?

6. Historical Accuracy: Does management typically beat guidance?

Interpreting Results

See references/interpreting-results.md for detailed guidance on analyzing revenue guidance.