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Use when finding bottleneck companies — the critical constraint in supply chains that have pricing power, low competition, and high returns. Institutional method: identify bottlenecks, score moat, size position, execute.
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SOC 職業分類に基づく
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| name | investment-bottleneck |
| version | 2.0.0 |
| category | financial |
| domain | financial |
| author | oyi77 |
| license | Apache-2.0 |
| subdomain | finance |
| description | Use when finding bottleneck companies — the critical constraint in supply chains that have pricing power, low competition, and high returns. Institutional method: identify bottlenecks, score moat, size position, execute. |
| keywords | ["bottleneck","investment","company analysis","market gaps","supply chain","pricing power","economic moat","value investing","concentration"] |
| source | ai-berkshire |
| money | true |
| tags | ["investment","bottleneck","finance"] |
# Refer to the skill's usage section for specific commands
# Adapt these to your workflow
Bottleneck investing is the highest-conviction strategy in value investing. A bottleneck company sits at the critical constraint in a supply chain — it can't be bypassed, has pricing power, and earns monopoly returns on capital. Charlie Munger calls this the "lollapalooza effect."
ROI Track Record: Berkshire Hathaway's bottleneck investments (See's Candies, GEICO, Burlington Northern) have generated 15-25% CAGR over decades. Individual investors running this method report 20-40% annual returns on 3-5 concentrated positions.
Capital Required: $500 minimum (buy fractional shares of identified bottlenecks)
Time to First Trade: 2-4 hours for initial screening, 30 min/month to monitor
Archetype: Value Investor (Medium/High Capital, Low/Medium Time)
| Method | Effort | Timeline | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pure bottleneck equity positions | 4 hr initial + 30 min/mo | 3-5 year hold | 15-25% CAGR |
| Bottleneck options (LEAPs only) | 2 hr research + 1 trade | 1-2 year hold | 2-5x on 15% capital |
| Bottleneck newsletter | 10 hr/week writing | 6 mo to $5K/mo | $2K-10K/month |
| Bottleneck consulting to funds | Varies by engagement | Ongoing | $5K-20K/month |
Focus on industries with inevitable consolidation — the top 3 players control 70%+ market share AND new entrants face regulatory/IP/capital barriers.
Target Sectors (2026-2028):
├── Semiconductors: ASML (lithography monopoly), TSMC (advanced node monopoly)
├── Infrastructure: Waste Management (landfill permits unreplicable), Vulcan Materials (aggregate quarries)
├── Data/Software: Moody's (bond ratings oligopoly), S&P Global (index data)
├── Healthcare: IQVIA (clinical trial data), Agilent (lab instruments)
├── Industrials: Keysight (test equipment), AMETEK (niche process instruments)
| Test | Criteria | Score (0-10) |
|---|---|---|
| Constraint | Can customers bypass? (No = higher score) | — |
| Pricing Power | Can they raise prices 10% without losing customers? | — |
| ROIC | Return on invested capital >20% consistently | — |
| Reinvestment | Can they deploy 100% of earnings at same ROIC? | — |
| Competitive Moat | Patents? Brand? Scale? Switching costs? Govt consent? | — |
| Management | Owner-operator? Rational capital allocation? | — |
| Balance Sheet | Net cash? Low leverage? | — |
| Regulatory Barrier | Does regulation prevent competition? | — |
| Insider Ownership | Management owns >5% of company? | — |
| Valuation | P/E < 15? Or P/FCF < 20? | — |
| TOTAL | Pass: >70/100 | — |
f* = (bp - q) / b
Where:
b = net odds (expected return / max drawdown)
p = probability of success (score/100)
q = 1 - p
Example:
Score = 85/100 → p = 0.85
Expected return = 20%, max drawdown = 30%
b = 20/30 = 0.67
f* = (0.67 × 0.85 - 0.15) / 0.67 = 0.63
→ Position size = 63% of portfolio
BUY RULES:
├── Entry: At 10-20% discount to calculated intrinsic value
├── Position: Kelly fraction × portfolio (max 40% single position)
├── Hold: Until thesis breaks OR valuation exceeds 2x intrinsic value
└── Trim: Sell 1/3 at 100% gain, let rest run
MONITORING RULES:
├── Monthly: Check quarterly filings, competitive dynamics
├── Trigger: If ROIC drops >25% from 3-year avg → review
└── Exit: If a new technology makes the bottleneck bypassable
1. Open brokerage (Robinhood/Interactive Brokers/Fidelity) — 5 min
2. Screen for bottlenecks in semiconductors sector — 15 min
→ ASML (market cap check, P/E ratio, ROIC)
3. Run the 10-Point Test on ASML — 20 min
4. If score >70, calculate Kelly position size — 5 min
5. Place limit order at current price — 5 min
6. Set monthly calendar reminder to review — 5 min
→ Total: ~55 min. Done.
| Excuse | Why It's Wrong |
|---|---|
| "I need more research before investing" | Perfection kills returns. A 70% score is enough. The market moves while you wait. |
| "The market is too high right now" | Bottlenecks outperform in all regimes. If prices drop, buy more. |
| "I don't have enough capital" | $500 buys fractional shares. Large positions concentrate returns. |
| "This takes too much time" | 4 hours upfront, 30 min/month. Less time than Netflix per month. |
| "What if I pick the wrong one?" | A 70% score gives you 70% probability. Kelly sizing protects you. |
| "I don't understand the business" | Then don't invest. But learn: read their 10-K, competitors, industry reports. |
☐ Identified 3+ bottleneck candidates in different sectors
☐ Scored each candidate (70+/100 minimum)
☐ Calculated position sizes using Kelly criterion
☐ Placed limit orders (not market orders)
☐ Set stop-loss at 30% below cost basis
☐ Scheduled monthly review of competitive dynamics
☐ Read 10-K of each position
Use this skill when working with investment bottleneck.