analyze-budget-variance

name	analyze-budget-variance
category	data
description	Explain actual-versus-budget differences using reconciled scope, timing, price, and volume drivers. Use when a material variance needs action rather than a superficial favorable or unfavorable label.

analyze-budget-variance

Procedure

1. Confirm period, population, currency, accounting basis, budget version, and materiality.
2. Reconcile actuals and budget to their authoritative totals before decomposing differences.
3. Normalize scope changes, reclassifications, foreign exchange, and timing where evidence supports it.
4. Decompose variance into price, volume, mix, timing, scope, rate, productivity, and error as appropriate.
5. Trace material drivers to transactions, commitments, operational metrics, and owner explanations.
6. Separate recurring trend, one-time event, forecast miss, data issue, and unresolved amount.
7. Quantify forecast impact and propose controlled actions with owners and review dates.
8. Preserve the calculation, source snapshot, assumptions, and approval.

Guardrails

• Do not offset unrelated favorable and unfavorable variances to conceal exposure.
• Never accept an owner narrative that does not reconcile to the data.
• Avoid conclusions about misconduct or accounting treatment without qualified investigation.

Done

• A variance report reconciles exactly from approved budget to actual result
• Material drivers have source evidence, classification, owner, and forecast impact
• Actions, unresolved items, and reviewer approval are recorded