| name | churn-risk-analysis |
| description | Analyze customer health signals, identify churn risk flags, and generate an intervention playbook. Use when user says "churn risk", "customer at risk", "red account", "at-risk customer", "health score dropped", "renewal at risk", "customer going dark", "cancel risk", or "what's wrong with this account" - even if they don't say "churn" explicitly. Applies to CSMs triaging accounts or building proactive retention workflows.
|
Overview
Based on "Customer Success" by Mehta, Steinman & Murphy, churn rarely happens by surprise.
The signals appear weeks or months before a customer cancels - they just go unread. This skill
structures those signals into a scored risk model and prescribes specific interventions for
each risk tier.
The core insight: churn is a lagging indicator. The leading indicators are low usage, missing
stakeholders, unresolved complaints, and strategic misalignment. Act on those, not the
cancellation notice.
Workflow
Step 1: Score the account across six risk dimensions
Rate each dimension 1 (healthy) to 3 (at risk):
| Dimension | 1 - Healthy | 2 - Watch | 3 - At Risk |
|---|
| Usage | MAU >80% of licenses, core feature adoption >70% | MAU 50-80%, spotty feature use | MAU <50%, logins declining MoM |
| Stakeholder coverage | Champion active, exec sponsor engaged | Champion disengaged, no exec relationship | Champion left, no internal advocate |
| Support load | <3 tickets/month, all resolved | 4-8 tickets/month, 1-2 lingering | >8 tickets/month or critical unresolved |
| NPS / sentiment | NPS 8-10, positive qualitative signals | NPS 6-7, neutral | NPS 0-5, complaints escalating |
| Goal progress | On track for agreed outcomes | Behind on 1-2 goals | No measurable progress, ROI questioned |
| Renewal proximity | >6 months out | 3-6 months | <3 months with unresolved issues |
Composite score = sum of all dimensions (6-18)
- 6-9: Healthy - standard cadence
- 10-13: Watch - increase touchpoint frequency
- 14-18: At Risk - immediate intervention required
Step 2: Identify which risk flags are present
Check for these specific churn signals from the CS literature:
- Champion left: The person who bought and championed the product is no longer at [customer name]
- Budget scrutiny: Customer mentions cost reviews, budget freezes, or consolidation initiatives
- Silent period: No product login or CSM response for 3+ weeks without explanation
- Executive disengagement: Exec sponsor declined last QBR or stopped attending
- Competitive mention: Customer references a competitor by name in conversation
- Support frustration: Repeated tickets on the same issue, escalating tone in communications
- Failed expansion refusal: Customer declined an upsell or said "we need to right-size first"
- Org change: Merger, acquisition, leadership change, or restructuring announced
Document which flags are active for [customer name].
Step 3: Assign risk tier and intervention playbook
Tier 1 - Healthy (score 6-9)
Standard success motion:
- Monthly check-in call
- Quarterly health review
- Proactive feature enablement aligned to goals
Tier 2 - Watch (score 10-13)
Elevated engagement:
- Bi-weekly calls until score improves
- Build or refresh the Success Plan with new goals
- Loop in 1-2 additional stakeholders to reduce champion dependency
- Identify 1 quick win to re-establish momentum
Tier 3 - At Risk (score 14-18)
Immediate intervention:
- CSM escalates to CS Manager within 24 hours
- Executive sponsor meeting booked within 2 weeks
- Remediation plan prepared with specific commitments and dates
- Internal coordination: loop in sales, support, and product if needed
- Weekly status cadence until score drops to Tier 2
Step 4: Map root cause to intervention type
| Root Cause | Primary Intervention |
|---|
| Low usage | Activation sprint - identify unused high-value features, run targeted enablement |
| Champion left | Stakeholder mapping - identify new champion, executive introduction via your sponsor |
| Unresolved support issue | Escalation - assign DRI, set resolution SLA, provide daily updates |
| ROI not demonstrated | Value audit - pull outcome data, schedule executive value review |
| Competitive threat | Competitive positioning call - address gaps directly, accelerate roadmap items |
| Budget pressure | Value consolidation story - quantify ROI, provide cost justification data |
Step 5: Write the intervention brief
For at-risk accounts, produce a one-page brief for internal stakeholders:
Account: [customer name]
ARR: [value]
Renewal date: [date]
Risk score: [X/18] - Tier [1/2/3]
Active flags: [list]
Root cause hypothesis: [1-2 sentences]
Proposed intervention: [specific actions, owners, dates]
Success criteria: [what "recovered" looks like with a measurable signal]
Anti-Patterns
1. Waiting for the customer to say they're leaving
Bad: Only flagging churn risk when a customer sends a cancellation email.
Good: Scoring all accounts monthly. Catching at-risk signals 90+ days before renewal.
2. One-dimensional health scoring
Bad: Defining "at risk" as only low usage.
Good: Scoring across six dimensions. An account with high usage but no executive sponsor and
a recent support escalation is still at risk.
3. Intervention without root cause
Bad: "Account is red, scheduling an EBR."
Good: "Champion left 6 weeks ago. We have no internal advocate. First step is stakeholder
mapping to identify a new champion before any executive outreach."
4. No internal escalation path
Bad: CSM handles Tier 3 accounts alone without manager involvement.
Good: Tier 3 automatically triggers manager review and cross-functional coordination.
5. Treating all at-risk accounts the same
Bad: Same playbook for low-usage accounts and accounts with executive disengagement.
Good: Match intervention to root cause. Low usage needs activation. Lost champion needs
relationship rebuilding. Support frustration needs escalation and resolution.
Quality Checklist
