marks-cycles

name	marks-cycles
description	Use when evaluating markets through Howard Marks-style second-level thinking, credit cycles, risk premiums, market psychology, and defensive versus aggressive posture.
invest	./invest.md

Howard Marks Cycles

Use this skill to apply Howard Marks-style cycle and risk judgment: identify where markets are in the cycle, compare price to value and risk premium, and decide whether to be defensive or aggressive.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• Market cycle diagnosis
• Credit spread and risk premium review
• Second-level thinking on a crowded view
• Defensive or aggressive portfolio posture
• Whether risk is being rewarded or ignored

Trigger phrases include Howard Marks, cycle, second-level thinking, risk premium, credit cycle, defensive, aggressive, and market psychology.

Do Not Use When

• The user needs a precise technical entry only.
• There is no market, valuation, credit, or sentiment context.
• The user asks for a prediction without uncertainty ranges.
• The setup requires leverage or forced timing.

Inputs Needed

• Asset class or market
• Valuation, yield, spread, or risk premium data
• Credit conditions, liquidity, default risk, and refinancing risk if relevant
• Sentiment, positioning, and consensus view
• Portfolio exposure and drawdown tolerance if posture is requested

Process

1. Identify the cycle: early, mid, late, stressed, panic, recovery.
2. Separate first-level view from second-level view.
3. Compare price, value, and risk premium.
4. Assess market psychology: fear, greed, complacency, forced selling.
5. Decide posture: defensive, neutral, opportunistic, or aggressive.
6. Size by margin for error, not confidence alone.

Output Format

# Marks Cycle View: [Market]

## Verdict
Defensive / Neutral / Opportunistic / Aggressive / Stand Down

## Cycle Position

## First-Level vs Second-Level View

## Risk Premium

## Market Psychology

## Portfolio Posture

## What Would Change The View

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Do not forecast with false precision.
• Do not treat high returns as low risk.
• Do not become aggressive when risk is underpriced.
• Do not become paralyzed during panic if compensation is attractive.
• Always ask what is already in the price.

Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used as a portfolio posture and cycle-risk module across Funds, asset classes, and market regimes.