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Run competitive research like an intelligence agency: eight collection disciplines (OSINT to MASINT), signal-to-inference chains, and fusion. Use when one-source research isn't enough.
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Use when auditing a paid ad account for incremental contribution, wasted spend, or measurement integrity before scaling; runs a typed 20-item ROAS profile with verified vetoes and a SHIP/FIX/BLOCK/UNDECIDED gate on own exported data. Not for campaign structure design — use campaign-architect; not for creative production — use ad-creative-builder. 付费广告账户审计/ROAS评分
Use when the user asks to "write ad copy", "generate RSA headlines", or "build ad creative at volume"; produces ad units — RSA headlines/descriptions, hooks, and an angle matrix — message-matched to the destination landing page. Not for scoring an ad account — use ad-account-auditor; not for the post-click page — use landing-optimizer; not for organic articles — use content-writer. 广告创意/广告文案/RSA标题
Use when the user asks to "design an A/B test", "set up a creative/landing test", "run an incrementality test", or "is this result statistically and practically material?"; produces a hypothesis, variant matrix, sample-size/duration/power plan, and a documented effect/uncertainty read from own exported results. It applies only a precommitted owner-approved action rule; the statistical helper never chooses a business action. Not for producing variants — use ad-creative-builder; not for reading back one shipped change — use paid-measurement-loop. 广告AB测试设计/实验设计/显著性判定/增效测试
SOC 職業分類に基づく
SKILL.md を表示中
| name | intelligence-collection-disciplines |
| description | Run competitive research like an intelligence agency: eight collection disciplines (OSINT to MASINT), signal-to-inference chains, and fusion. Use when one-source research isn't enough. |
| intent | Give product managers the intelligence community's collection playbook: eight independent disciplines, each with free and paid sources, signal-to-inference chains, and the PM artifact it feeds — then fuse them with confidence stacking so three weak signals become one strong conclusion. |
| type | component |
| theme | market-intelligence |
| best_for | ["Choosing which collection channels to run for a competitive or market question","Turning raw public signals (patents, job posts, filings, web diffs) into defensible inferences","Cross-validating a suspected competitor move across independent evidence channels"] |
| scenarios | ["I think a competitor is building a platform play — how do I confirm it before their launch?","My TAM slide got shredded — where do I find data that survives scrutiny?"] |
| estimated_time | reference skill; a single-discipline pass takes 30-60 min |
Stop doing competitive research like a term paper. The intelligence community solved this problem decades ago: they don't collect "data," they run collection disciplines — independent channels, each with its own sources, tradecraft, and blind spots — and then they fuse them. This skill gives product managers that playbook: eight disciplines, each telling you (1) what to collect, (2) where to collect it, (3) which signal → inference chains to run, and (4) which PM artifact it feeds (TAM/SAM/SOM, ICPs, personas, battle cards, roadmap bets, win/loss, positioning, pricing). One signal is an anecdote; three correlated signals from independent disciplines is intelligence.
Works best with the six instantiation variables below — fill them once and every discipline becomes engagement-specific. Leave them blank and this stays a teaching artifact.
[TARGET] = The competitor, partner, or acquirer you're researching
[MARKET] = The category and its NAICS/SIC/NACE codes (or nearest equivalent)
[GEOGRAPHY] = Regions in scope, at COUNTRY level, not continent level
[BUYER] = Who signs the check (drives review sites, job titles, conferences)
[CAPABILITY] = The strategic move you suspect (platform play, market entry,
pricing shift, compliance land-grab, etc.)
[DECISION] = What this research will change (roadmap bet, positioning,
pricing, market entry, deal defense, ICP refresh)
If [DECISION] is blank, stop. Research without a decision is a hobby.
Anything supplied with the invocation itself — text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an
appended ARGUMENTS: line — counts as variables already filled. Use it; don't re-ask.
Arriving empty-handed? That works too. Read the disciplines as a course in tradecraft, or ask the agent to walk the instantiation block with you one variable at a time.
Example invocation: Use intelligence-collection-disciplines — [TARGET]: Meridian Freight Systems, [CAPABILITY]: suspected move into warehouse robotics, [DECISION]: whether we accelerate our own integration roadmap.
| Discipline | Intel Community Name | Plain English | Primary PM Artifact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. OSINT | Open Source Intelligence | Press, social, periodicals, analysts | Battle cards, positioning |
| 2. FININT | Financial Intelligence |
| Filings, earnings calls, procurement |
| Battle cards, SOM capture rates |
| 3. GEOINT/DEMOINT | Geospatial & Demographic Intelligence | Census, labor, trade, economic statistics | TAM/SAM/SOM, ICPs, personas |
| 4. TECHINT | Technical Intelligence | Patents, technographics, changelogs | Roadmap bets |
| 5. HUMINT | Human Intelligence | Talent moves, employee chatter, win/loss | Roadmap bets, battle cards |
| 6. SIGINT | Signals Intelligence | Web diffs, pricing changes, job posts | Battle cards, pricing strategy |
| 7. MASINT | Measurement & Signature | Supply chain, ops indicators | Threat assessment |
| 8. All-Source Fusion | n/a | Cross-validation and confidence stacking | Everything above |
autonomous-investigation protocol (Fact / Inference / Assumption).What a good beat reporter knows before the press release drops.
| Source Type | Free | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| [TARGET] press & newsroom | Company newsroom pages, Google Alerts, PR Newswire feeds | Meltwater, Cision |
| Industry periodicals | Trade publications, association newsletters, vertical Substacks for [MARKET] | Analyst subscriptions |
| Analyst coverage | Gartner/Forrester press summaries, free webinar replays | Gartner, Forrester, IDC full reports |
| Social & community | LinkedIn exec posts, Reddit, Hacker News, X | Brandwatch, Sprout listening |
| Review sites | Whichever your [BUYER] reads: G2, Capterra, TrustRadius, app stores, Trustpilot | G2 Buyer Intent data |
| Conference footprint | Session titles, sponsor tiers, booth size, speaker rosters at [MARKET] events | n/a |
| Prediction markets | Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus, Manifold (crowd-priced odds on regulation, approvals, tech milestones relevant to [MARKET]) | n/a |
Signal → inference chains:
Feeds: battle cards (objection handling from review mining), positioning (their words vs. customer words gap), win/loss context.
Follow the money. Companies lie in press releases. They lie less in filings, because lying there is a felony.
| Source Type | Free | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Public filings | SEC EDGAR (US), Companies House (UK), BRIS and European e-Justice company search (EU), national securities regulators for [GEOGRAPHY] | AlphaSense, Sentieo |
| Earnings calls | Company IR pages, Seeking Alpha transcripts | AlphaSense (search across calls) |
| Private company signals | Crunchbase free tier, incorporation records, insolvency registers, beneficial-ownership registers where legally accessible | PitchBook, CB Insights |
| Government spend & procurement | USAspending.gov, SAM.gov (US), TED and national procurement portals (EU), country platforms (MENA), development-bank procurement (World Bank, EBRD, AfDB, UNGM) | GovWin |
| Competition & state-aid cases | European Commission merger/antitrust/state-aid databases; national competition authorities | n/a |
| State & sovereign capital | Sovereign wealth fund reports, state-owned enterprise annual reports, PPP pipelines | n/a |
Signal → inference chains:
Feeds: battle cards (financial stress = "they'll be desperate at quarter-end" plays), SOM capture rates (their revenue ÷ claimed customer count = deal size reality check, feeding the GEOINT/DEMOINT sizing recipe), account targeting (procurement award patterns).
The terrain map, not troop movement. Government statistics are free intelligence most PMs never open — and the backbone of every ICP, persona, and TAM that survives scrutiny.
| Source Type | Free | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| US market structure | Census Bureau (County Business Patterns, Economic Census, NAICS establishment counts), BEA | IBISWorld, Statista, Grand View Research |
| US labor & buyers | BLS (occupation counts, wages, industry employment), FRED (macro conditions gating budgets) | TalentNeuron |
| EU market structure | Eurostat, PRODCOM manufacturing statistics, national statistical institutes, ECB data | national data resellers |
| EU trade flows | Eurostat COMEXT, Access2Markets, TARIC (tariffs, quotas, rules of origin) | Panjiva, S&P Global |
| MENA regional | GCC-Stat, Arab Development Portal, ESCWA, Arab Monetary Fund, SESRIC | n/a |
| MENA national | GASTAT (Saudi), FCSC (UAE), CAPMAS (Egypt), HCP (Morocco), and peers | n/a |
| Global cross-check | World Bank Data and Enterprise Surveys, IMF country reports, OECD.Stat, UN Comtrade, ITC Trade Map | n/a |
Signal → inference chains:
The TAM/SAM/SOM Recipe (this discipline's signature dish):
TAM: Establishment counts for [MARKET] (Census/NAICS, Eurostat/NACE,
or national equivalent for [GEOGRAPHY])
× employment/spend benchmarks (BLS, Eurostat, trade associations)
(validate against two independent analyst reports; if they disagree by 3x, say so)
SAM: TAM filtered by your actual constraints: [GEOGRAPHY], segment, compliance
requirements, tech prerequisites (see TECHINT technographics),
local-content and vendor-registration eligibility where applicable
SOM: SAM × realistic capture rate derived from [TARGET] public filings via FININT
(their revenue ÷ their claimed customer count = deal size reality check)
Feeds: TAM/SAM/SOM (the backbone — see tam-sam-som-calculator), ICP definition, personas,
messaging localization, market entry prioritization, pricing corridor validation.
R&D leaves fingerprints 12-18 months before products ship.
| Source Type | Free | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Patents | patents.google.com, USPTO Patent Center, EPO Espacenet, WIPO PatentScope | Clarivate, LexisNexis PatentSight+ |
| Technographics | BuiltWith free lookups, Wappalyzer | HG Insights, BuiltWith Pro, 6sense |
| Product telemetry | Public changelogs, API docs diffs, status pages, GitHub org activity | n/a |
| Standards bodies | Whichever govern [MARKET]: IETF, W3C, ISO committees, CEN/CENELEC/ETSI work programs, industry consortia | n/a |
| Funded research | CORDIS and Horizon Europe project databases, university project repositories | n/a |
| Academic & preprints | arXiv, Google Scholar, Semantic Scholar, SSRN, the conferences that matter to [MARKET] | Dimensions, Scopus |
| Trademark filings | USPTO TESS, EUIPO, WIPO Global Brand Database | Corsearch |
Signal → inference chains:
Feeds: roadmap bets (where to accelerate vs. concede), SAM refinement, battle cards (feature-gap countdown clocks), build/buy/partner decisions.
Organizations announce strategy through job boards long before press releases. People are the tell.
| Source Type | Free | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Job postings | LinkedIn Jobs, [TARGET] careers pages, Indeed | JobsPikr, TalentNeuron, Revelio Labs |
| Employee sentiment | Glassdoor, Blind, Reddit communities for [MARKET] | n/a |
| Leadership moves | LinkedIn announcements, press | BoardEx, The Org |
| Win/Loss | Your own sales team debriefs, churned-customer interviews | Clozd, DoubleCheck |
| Conference hallway | Your field team's ears at [MARKET] trade shows | n/a |
Signal → inference chains:
Feeds: roadmap bets (their build signals), battle cards (org instability plays), win/loss program (ground truth for everything).
Companies broadcast constantly through what they change on the public internet. Most competitors never listen.
| Source Type | Free | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Website diffs | Wayback Machine, Visualping free tier | Visualping, Klue, Crayon (auto-monitoring) |
| Pricing pages | Manual snapshots + Wayback | Klue, Crayon, Kompyte |
| SEO/SEM moves | Google "site:" queries, free Semrush lookups | Semrush, Ahrefs, SpyFu |
| App store metadata | Version notes, screenshot changes, keyword shifts | Sensor Tower, data.ai |
| DNS/infrastructure | crt.sh (new SSL certs reveal new subdomains), DNS records | n/a |
| Webinar/event cadence | [TARGET] events pages, registration platforms | n/a |
Signal → inference chains:
[capability].[target].com) → product launch staging, often weeks aheadFeeds: battle cards (the freshest layer — this is what keeps cards from going stale), pricing strategy, positioning counter-moves.
Measure the physical and operational exhaust. Abnormal resource allocation never lies.
| Source Type | Free | Paid |
|---|---|---|
| Supply chain | Import/export records via ImportYeti (free tier), Eurostat COMEXT and customs codes, UN Comtrade | S&P Global Supply Chain Intelligence, Panjiva, ImportGenius |
| Facilities & projects | Commercial real estate news, local business journals, permits in [GEOGRAPHY]; industrial-zone tenant announcements, environmental permits, EPC contract awards; satellite imagery | CoStar |
| Ops capacity | Support response time sampling, status page incident frequency | n/a |
| Certifications & safety | Whichever gate [MARKET]: ISO, SOC 2, FedRAMP, CE marks; notified-body designations and safety recalls (EU); sector registries | n/a |
Signal → inference chains:
Note: supply chain and facility signals are strongest for hardware and industrial players. The software equivalent is ops capacity plus infrastructure-scale language in job postings.
Feeds: threat assessment, launch prediction and capacity estimates, battle cards (capacity-stretch objections: "ask them about their support SLAs lately").
One signal is an anecdote. Three correlated signals from independent disciplines is intelligence.
Apply the Confidence Stacking Rule from the autonomous-investigation protocol: 1 discipline =
watch item; 2 = working hypothesis; 3+ = actionable intelligence; conflicting disciplines = someone is
bluffing — dig. And treat announcements as intent until funding, procurement, land, permits, hiring,
or contracts corroborate them: ambition is OSINT; commitment shows up in FININT, MASINT, and HUMINT.
Fusion template — detecting [TARGET]'s [CAPABILITY] play:
| Discipline | Signal (fill in what you found) |
|---|---|
| MASINT | Resource/input anomaly: ____ |
| TECHINT | Patent cluster or repo activity: ____ |
| HUMINT | Hiring pattern: ____ |
| SIGINT | Infrastructure or web change: ____ |
| FININT | Filing language, procurement award, or earnings dodge: ____ |
| GEOINT/DEMOINT | Terrain check: does the market they'd enter actually exist at the size the move implies? ____ |
Fusion verdict: ____ disciplines, one story → confidence level → recommended response.
The fusion cadence:
| Artifact | Primary Disciplines | Refresh Cadence |
|---|---|---|
| TAM/SAM/SOM | GEOINT/DEMOINT + FININT (capture rates) + TECHINT (technographics) | Annual, plus event-driven |
| ICPs & Personas | GEOINT/DEMOINT + HUMINT (win/loss ground truth) | Semi-annual |
| Messaging & localization | GEOINT/DEMOINT + OSINT | Semi-annual |
| Battle cards | SIGINT + OSINT + HUMINT (win/loss) | Weekly SIGINT layer, monthly rebuild |
| Roadmap bets | TECHINT + HUMINT | Quarterly |
| Positioning | OSINT + FININT (earnings language) | Semi-annual |
| Pricing strategy | SIGINT + FININT + GEOINT/DEMOINT (wage/WTP corridors) | Event-driven |
| Threat assessment | All-Source Fusion | Quarterly brief + event-driven |
The disciplines do not change across markets; the sources do, and so does the evidentiary burden. Two lessons that generalize: in rich-disclosure systems (EU), the challenge is finding the right record in a fragmented landscape — no single portal holds it all. In announcement-heavy markets (MENA), the challenge is separating national ambition from funded, procured, permitted commitment — and an announced budget, an approved budget, committed financing, a tender value, and an awarded contract are five different numbers wearing the same headline. Search in local languages; never assume the English portal contains every notice.
A copy/paste collection plan — instantiation variables, discipline-selection table, cadence,
and fusion table — lives in template.md.
Illustrative fusion fill (all names fictional): you suspect [TARGET] = Meridian Freight Systems is
building a warehouse-robotics platform. The sweep finds: +20% specialized component orders in customs
records (MASINT, Fact), 15 new filings in one robotics patent class (TECHINT, Fact), 30+
platform engineers hired in a quarter (HUMINT, Fact), a new robotics.meridianfreight.com SSL
cert (SIGINT, Fact), the CFO dodging an analyst's capex question (FININT, Inference), and
establishment counts confirming the addressable segment supports the investment math
(GEOINT/DEMOINT, Fact). Six disciplines, one story: high-confidence platform threat. Response:
accelerate your own platform roadmap and arm sales with a maturity battle card before their launch,
not after.
Single-discipline quick win: your battle card claims a competitor is "financially strong." One FININT pass finds deferred revenue declining three quarters straight while claimed customer count grew — Inference: deal sizes are shrinking. The card gains a quarter-end discount-pressure play, with the filing URL attached.
See examples/sample.md for a complete worked collection plan (fictional) —
four disciplines chosen and three consciously skipped, a fusion table that escalates to
actionable, and a June signal that correctly stayed a watch item until other channels corroborated.
examples/sample-industrial.md is the plan where MASINT stars —
customs, registries, permits — and an absence enters the fusion table as a Fact.
autonomous-investigation (Workflow) — the protocol that
labels and stacks what these disciplines collecttam-sam-som-calculator (Component) — consumes the
GEOINT/DEMOINT sizing recipecompany-research and company-intel
— single-company deep dives built largely on OSINT + FININT + HUMINTmarket-landscape-scan,
competitive-research-snapshot, competitive-intel-watch, battle-card-builder