shihanbing-macro-interest-analysis

name	shihanbing-macro-interest-analysis
description	Use when evaluating macro trends through Shi Hanbing's interest-analysis (利益分析法) lens: trace who benefits from what policy, follow the money, and predict macro direction from incentive structures.
invest	./invest.md

Shi Hanbing Macro Interest Analysis

Use this skill to apply Shi Hanbing / 时寒冰-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• macro interest analysis
• policy prediction from incentives
• Shi Hanbing-style trend analysis
• macro regime identification for A-shares

Trigger phrases include 时寒冰, Shi Hanbing, 利益分析法, macro trend A股, policy incentive, 趋势分析.

Do Not Use When

• Another skill fits better.
• Critical data for this model is missing.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
• The request is generic chatter with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Asset, sector, market, or macro context
• Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
• Time horizon and risk constraints
• Portfolio context if sizing is requested

Process

1. Map the interest structure: who benefits, who pays, who decides.
2. Predict policy direction from incentive alignment.
3. Check if macro data/price confirms the interest-based prediction.
4. Position for the trend; stand aside if interests conflict without resolution.

Output Format

# Shi Hanbing Macro Interest Analysis View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Risk-On Trend / Neutral / Risk-Off / Conflicting Interests / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
• Define invalidation before sizing.
• Not financial advice.

Questflow Use

Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.